DJ After Buying Rumor, Natural Gas Market Sells News -- Market Talk
10:46 ET - Natural-gas futures have been on a bullish kick in recent weeks amid hope the long-running oversupply
situation would finally begin to abate. Traders and analysts were expecting a 24B cubic-foot decline in stockpile data
this morning, and they got a 25 bcf drop. A week ago, supplies actually rose three weeks earlier than usual as the
tepid winter and robust production led to an early season gain, but today's resumed decline shows it was an anomaly.
The market, which traded as much as 1.6% above yesterday's close early in the session, sells off on the news and is now
down 0.7% on the day, at $1.984 a million Btus. (christian.berthelsen@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 31, 2016 10:47 ET (14:47 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
033116 14:47 -- GMT
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Service:DJE/EN ID:DJE02F3Y60331 Page:80000
FSN:0 Comments Energy General
80000 I/FSL I/OIL M/ENE M/NND N/ALMT N/DJCS N/DJG N/DJI N/DJMT N/DJN N/DJWI N/DN
N/DOI N/DPG N/DRV N/ENTR N/IPR N/NGS N/NRG N/OSCM N/OSEN N/OSOV N/OSTR N/PET N/
WED N/WER P/ACMD P/AENE P/AEQI P/NRG P/RCC P/WMMI
2016-03-31 14:47:07 UTC
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natural gas
Thursday, March 31, 2016
EIA Weekly Storage Report - 25 Bcf Draw
DJ US EIA Underground Natural Gas Storage - Weekly Recap
03/25/16 03/18/16 CHANGE YEAR AGO
(BCF) (BCF) (BCF) (BCF)
REGION EAST 439 453 -14 261
REGION MIDWEST 555 571 -16 266
REGION MOUNTAIN 147 148 -1 114
REGION PACIFIC 262 260 2 268
REGION SOUTH CENTRAL 1065 1061 4 558
SALT 315 312 3 129
NONSALT 750 749 1 429
TOTAL LOWER 48 U.S. 2468 2493 -25 1466
5-YR AVG CURR WK DIFF FROM
STOCKS(BCF) 5-YR AVG(%)
REGION EAST 311 41.2
REGION MIDWEST 342 62.3
REGION MOUNTAIN 114 28.9
REGION PACIFIC 202 29.7
REGION SOUTH CENTRAL 656 62.3
SALT 149 111.4
NONSALT 507 47.9
TOTAL LOWER 48 U.S. 1625 51.9
RECAP PAGE 28837 NOTES AT http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/ngs/notes.htmlhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/ngs/notes.html">http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/ngs/notes.html
>
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 31, 2016 10:30 ET (14:30 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
033116 14:30 -- GMT
--------------------------------------------------------------
DATE EAST MIDWEST MOUNTAIN PACIFIC SOUTH CENTRAL SALT NONSALT TOTAL US CHANGE
REGION REGION REGION REGION REGION (BCF)
03/25/2016 439 555 147 262 1065 315 750 2468 -25
03/18/2016 453 571 148 260 1061 312 749 2493 15
03/11/2016 452 577 147 259 1043 303 740 2478 -1
03/04/2016 464 587 146 258 1024 291 733 2479 -57
02/26/2016 495 621 145 255 1020 285 735 2536 -48
02/19/2016 512 645 147 256 1024 281 743 2584 -117
02/12/2016 568 689 147 255 1042 286 756 2701 -163
02/05/2016 620 739 151 258 1096 312 784 2864 -70
01/29/2016 641 767 159 271 1096 303 793 2934 -152
01/22/2016 695 811 164 273 1143 321 821 3086 -211
01/15/2016 758 879 170 281 1209 345 864 3297 -178
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 31, 2016 10:30 ET (14:30 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
033116 14:30 -- GMT
03/25/16 03/18/16 CHANGE YEAR AGO
(BCF) (BCF) (BCF) (BCF)
REGION EAST 439 453 -14 261
REGION MIDWEST 555 571 -16 266
REGION MOUNTAIN 147 148 -1 114
REGION PACIFIC 262 260 2 268
REGION SOUTH CENTRAL 1065 1061 4 558
SALT 315 312 3 129
NONSALT 750 749 1 429
TOTAL LOWER 48 U.S. 2468 2493 -25 1466
5-YR AVG CURR WK DIFF FROM
STOCKS(BCF) 5-YR AVG(%)
REGION EAST 311 41.2
REGION MIDWEST 342 62.3
REGION MOUNTAIN 114 28.9
REGION PACIFIC 202 29.7
REGION SOUTH CENTRAL 656 62.3
SALT 149 111.4
NONSALT 507 47.9
TOTAL LOWER 48 U.S. 1625 51.9
RECAP PAGE 28837 NOTES AT http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/ngs/notes.htmlhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/ngs/notes.html">http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/ngs/notes.html
>
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 31, 2016 10:30 ET (14:30 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
033116 14:30 -- GMT
--------------------------------------------------------------
DATE EAST MIDWEST MOUNTAIN PACIFIC SOUTH CENTRAL SALT NONSALT TOTAL US CHANGE
REGION REGION REGION REGION REGION (BCF)
03/25/2016 439 555 147 262 1065 315 750 2468 -25
03/18/2016 453 571 148 260 1061 312 749 2493 15
03/11/2016 452 577 147 259 1043 303 740 2478 -1
03/04/2016 464 587 146 258 1024 291 733 2479 -57
02/26/2016 495 621 145 255 1020 285 735 2536 -48
02/19/2016 512 645 147 256 1024 281 743 2584 -117
02/12/2016 568 689 147 255 1042 286 756 2701 -163
02/05/2016 620 739 151 258 1096 312 784 2864 -70
01/29/2016 641 767 159 271 1096 303 793 2934 -152
01/22/2016 695 811 164 273 1143 321 821 3086 -211
01/15/2016 758 879 170 281 1209 345 864 3297 -178
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 31, 2016 10:30 ET (14:30 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
033116 14:30 -- GMT
Analysts' Estimates For Today's EIA Weekly Storage Report
DJ Analysts See 24 Billion-Cubic Feet Decline in U.S. Natural-Gas Inventories
By Timothy Puko
Analysts expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to show natural-gas inventories last week fell on par
with their average for this time of year.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that storage levels fell by 24 billion cubic feet of
gas during the week ended March 25, according to the average forecast of 21 analysts, brokers and traders surveyed by
The Wall Street Journal.
The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data for the week on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
For the March 25 week, the median estimate is for a decrease of 24 bcf. Estimates range from a fall of 33 bcf to a
fall of 16 bcf.
The estimate for March 25 compares to 10 bcf drawn from storage for the same week last year and a five-year average
drain of 22 bcf for that week.
If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of March 25 totaled 2.5 trillion cubic feet, 68% above levels from
a year ago and 52% above the five-year average for the same week.
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 30, 2016 18:08 ET (22:08 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
033016 22:08 -- GMT
By Timothy Puko
Analysts expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to show natural-gas inventories last week fell on par
with their average for this time of year.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that storage levels fell by 24 billion cubic feet of
gas during the week ended March 25, according to the average forecast of 21 analysts, brokers and traders surveyed by
The Wall Street Journal.
The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data for the week on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
For the March 25 week, the median estimate is for a decrease of 24 bcf. Estimates range from a fall of 33 bcf to a
fall of 16 bcf.
The estimate for March 25 compares to 10 bcf drawn from storage for the same week last year and a five-year average
drain of 22 bcf for that week.
If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of March 25 totaled 2.5 trillion cubic feet, 68% above levels from
a year ago and 52% above the five-year average for the same week.
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 30, 2016 18:08 ET (22:08 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
033016 22:08 -- GMT
Wednesday, March 30, 2016
Natural Gas Corner - Technical Update - Bullish Breakout In Overnight Trade
The new front month May 16 natural gas contract has broken out above 40 day moving average resistance at the 1.965 level in today's early trade. If the breakout holds, another leg higher in the market is expected.
The May contract has been well bid since settling a weekly low at the 1.837 level on Monday moving the contract back up toward 40 day moving average resistance. This resistance was first tested and held two weeks ago and was retested again in yesterday's session. Resistance was finally broken today turning the 2.026 mid-March high into the next upside objective followed by the 2015 low at 2.087.
The 40 day moving average now becomes the first area of support today at 1.965 followed by the 10 day average at 1.945. A drop back under both averages will turn the near term trend back down with the 1.837 weekly low being the next area of support. Longer term support is the 1.731 contract low.
Bottom line - Bullish breakout should signal further gains ahead.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment - Neutral
Long Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Tuesday, March 29, 2016
Dow Jones - Natural Gas Rises On Cooler Weather Forecast
DJ Natural Gas Rises on Cooler Weather Forecast
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural gas prices gained Tuesday on forecasts of colder weather in the next two weeks.
Natural gas futures for April delivery recently rose 3.5 cents, or 1.9%, to $1.883 a million British thermal units on
the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Natural gas stockpiles stood 51% above average levels for this time of year as of March 18, according to the Energy
Information Administration, due to robust production and sluggish demand. A warmer-than-normal winter in the U.S. has
reduced demand for natural gas as an indoor-heating fuel.
Analysts expect natural-gas stockpiles to hit record highs later this year.
Weather forecasts call for some colder-than-average temperatures in the next two weeks, which could increase natural
gas consumption.
"The weather looks to finally be contributing to demand," said energy-advisory firm Gelber & Associates in a note.
But the oversupply will persist, said NatGasWeather.com in a note.
"We view ... only 2-3 days of relatively cold U.S. temperatures" in the next two weeks, the forecaster said. "If
prices are going to find further support, they're going to have to do so in the face of relatively bearish weather
headwinds as supplies stall the next few weeks before increasing."
Write to Nicole Friedman at nicole.friedman@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 29, 2016 11:52 ET (15:52 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
032916 15:52 -- GMT
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By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural gas prices gained Tuesday on forecasts of colder weather in the next two weeks.
Natural gas futures for April delivery recently rose 3.5 cents, or 1.9%, to $1.883 a million British thermal units on
the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Natural gas stockpiles stood 51% above average levels for this time of year as of March 18, according to the Energy
Information Administration, due to robust production and sluggish demand. A warmer-than-normal winter in the U.S. has
reduced demand for natural gas as an indoor-heating fuel.
Analysts expect natural-gas stockpiles to hit record highs later this year.
Weather forecasts call for some colder-than-average temperatures in the next two weeks, which could increase natural
gas consumption.
"The weather looks to finally be contributing to demand," said energy-advisory firm Gelber & Associates in a note.
But the oversupply will persist, said NatGasWeather.com in a note.
"We view ... only 2-3 days of relatively cold U.S. temperatures" in the next two weeks, the forecaster said. "If
prices are going to find further support, they're going to have to do so in the face of relatively bearish weather
headwinds as supplies stall the next few weeks before increasing."
Write to Nicole Friedman at nicole.friedman@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 29, 2016 11:52 ET (15:52 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
032916 15:52 -- GMT
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Natural Gas Corner - Technical Update - Key Resistance Holds Again On Monday
Today's expiring April 16 natural gas contract rallied back higher to begin the new week of trade on Monday gaining .046 (2.3%) to settle at 1.848.
The rally has stalled under 10 day moving average resistance at the 1.855 level today. This resistance is followed by a 3-month trend line and the 40 day moving average at the 1.885-1.890 level today. A breakout above 1.885-1.890 resistance which be a bullish technical signal turning the 2015 low at 2.017 into the next upside resistance.
If resistance holds, the near term trend will remain down with Monday's 1.766 low extending down to 1.750 being the first area of support followed by 1.690-1.700. Longer term support is the 1.611 contract low.
Bottom line - Will resistance hold today during expiration?
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment - Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Monday, March 28, 2016
Natural Gas Corner - Market Update - The Summer Rally May Not Yet Be Over
Natural gas prices turned back lower in last week's holiday-shortened week as the spot April contract lost just over .100 or 5.3%. Selling last week follows a two-week rally higher from an 18-year low reached earlier this month which lifted the spot contract by 21%.
With the fundamental picture remaining largely bearish for prices, new lows later this year appear highly likely. But near term, the market may hold some surprises before a lasting summer top is set.
While storage is on track to end this winter at a new all-time high, this week's EIA storage report is expected to show a withdrawal following last week's 15 Bcf injection. End of winter demand in the eastern U.S. could be higher than anticipated potentially adding support to the market.
The funds are also back in with a net long futures position in natural gas jumping by nearly 50% in just one week's time. The current position estimated at 70,241 contracts as of the 03/22 close increased by 23,177 contracts (49%) from the previous week according to the Commitment of Trader's report released on 03/25. Funds may continue to add to long coverage on ensuing price weakness.
And finally, the seasonal price trend is supportive which over the past 3 and 5 years suggests continued upside strength before a summer top is set.
Longer term, a retest of the lows set earlier this year is expected later this year during the post-summer seasonal low. It is during this second seasonal break that a low price point for the year is typically set.
How soon the market reaches a summer high will depend on upcoming summer cooling demand and weekly storage injections.
With the fundamental picture remaining largely bearish for prices, new lows later this year appear highly likely. But near term, the market may hold some surprises before a lasting summer top is set.
While storage is on track to end this winter at a new all-time high, this week's EIA storage report is expected to show a withdrawal following last week's 15 Bcf injection. End of winter demand in the eastern U.S. could be higher than anticipated potentially adding support to the market.
The funds are also back in with a net long futures position in natural gas jumping by nearly 50% in just one week's time. The current position estimated at 70,241 contracts as of the 03/22 close increased by 23,177 contracts (49%) from the previous week according to the Commitment of Trader's report released on 03/25. Funds may continue to add to long coverage on ensuing price weakness.
And finally, the seasonal price trend is supportive which over the past 3 and 5 years suggests continued upside strength before a summer top is set.
Longer term, a retest of the lows set earlier this year is expected later this year during the post-summer seasonal low. It is during this second seasonal break that a low price point for the year is typically set.
How soon the market reaches a summer high will depend on upcoming summer cooling demand and weekly storage injections.
Dow Jones - Natural Gas Prices Rise With Demand Expectations
DJ Natural Gas Prices Rise With Demand Expectations
By Christian Berthelsen
Natural gas prices rose Monday amid shifting outlooks for gas-fired heating and cooling demand in the coming weeks.
With temperatures wavering in the so-called shoulder season between winter and spring, the market is gyrating along
with them as traders assess fading demand levels for gas-fired heating but rising demand in some areas for power
generation to meet air conditioning needs.
Midwestern and Northeastern temperatures are expected to fall below normal into the first week in April amid a late
season cold front, while a fast warm-up in the west is expected to drive cooling demand.
"It's early-season air conditioning demand," said Gary Cunningham, manager of market research at brokerage Tradition
Energy.
Still, above-normal temperatures along the eastern seaboard into mid-April are expected to tamp down any lingering
heating demand.
Natural gas futures for April delivery rose 2.3% to settle at $1.8480 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange, regaining some of the ground they lost last week.
A weak winter and surging production have resulted in fast-growing stockpiles of natural gas, with the U.S. Energy
Department reporting a 15 billion cubic-foot increase in inventories last week, more than 50% above average for this
time of year. The increase came three weeks earlier than normal for this time of year, when inventories are still being
drawn down to heat homes amid fading winter temperatures.
"The lesser heating demand will make it more difficult for the market to reduce the amount of gas in storage,"
Houston research consultancy Gelber & Associates said in a note.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 28, 2016 15:17 ET (19:17 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
032816 19:17 -- GMT
By Christian Berthelsen
Natural gas prices rose Monday amid shifting outlooks for gas-fired heating and cooling demand in the coming weeks.
With temperatures wavering in the so-called shoulder season between winter and spring, the market is gyrating along
with them as traders assess fading demand levels for gas-fired heating but rising demand in some areas for power
generation to meet air conditioning needs.
Midwestern and Northeastern temperatures are expected to fall below normal into the first week in April amid a late
season cold front, while a fast warm-up in the west is expected to drive cooling demand.
"It's early-season air conditioning demand," said Gary Cunningham, manager of market research at brokerage Tradition
Energy.
Still, above-normal temperatures along the eastern seaboard into mid-April are expected to tamp down any lingering
heating demand.
Natural gas futures for April delivery rose 2.3% to settle at $1.8480 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange, regaining some of the ground they lost last week.
A weak winter and surging production have resulted in fast-growing stockpiles of natural gas, with the U.S. Energy
Department reporting a 15 billion cubic-foot increase in inventories last week, more than 50% above average for this
time of year. The increase came three weeks earlier than normal for this time of year, when inventories are still being
drawn down to heat homes amid fading winter temperatures.
"The lesser heating demand will make it more difficult for the market to reduce the amount of gas in storage,"
Houston research consultancy Gelber & Associates said in a note.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 28, 2016 15:17 ET (19:17 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
032816 19:17 -- GMT
Dow Jones - Natural Gas Edges Higher Amid Shifting Forecasts
DJ Natural Gas Edges Higher Amid Shifting Forecasts
By Christian Berthelsen
Natural gas prices edged higher Monday amid shifting outlooks for temperatures in the coming weeks, with Northeastern
temperatures getting colder in early April followed by an eastern-seaboard warm-up later in the month.
Natural gas futures for April delivery were up 0.4% at $1.8140 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange, regaining some of the ground they had lost last week.
With temperatures wavering in the so-called shoulder season between winter and spring, the market is gyrating along
with them as traders assess fading demand levels for gas-fired heating.
A weak winter and surging production have resulted in fast-growing stockpiles of natural gas, with the U.S. Energy
Department reporting a 15-billion-cubic-foot increase in inventories last week, more than 50% above average for this
time of year. The increase came three weeks earlier than normal for this time of year, when inventories are still being
drawn down to heat homes amid fading winter temperatures.
"It is now spring and cooling trends will not result in a winter-like surge in natural gas heating-related demand,"
analyst Dominick Chirichella of the Energy Management Institute said in a note.
Write to Christian Berthelsen at christian.berthelsen@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 28, 2016 10:38 ET (14:38 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
032816 14:38 -- GMT
------
By Christian Berthelsen
Natural gas prices edged higher Monday amid shifting outlooks for temperatures in the coming weeks, with Northeastern
temperatures getting colder in early April followed by an eastern-seaboard warm-up later in the month.
Natural gas futures for April delivery were up 0.4% at $1.8140 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange, regaining some of the ground they had lost last week.
With temperatures wavering in the so-called shoulder season between winter and spring, the market is gyrating along
with them as traders assess fading demand levels for gas-fired heating.
A weak winter and surging production have resulted in fast-growing stockpiles of natural gas, with the U.S. Energy
Department reporting a 15-billion-cubic-foot increase in inventories last week, more than 50% above average for this
time of year. The increase came three weeks earlier than normal for this time of year, when inventories are still being
drawn down to heat homes amid fading winter temperatures.
"It is now spring and cooling trends will not result in a winter-like surge in natural gas heating-related demand,"
analyst Dominick Chirichella of the Energy Management Institute said in a note.
Write to Christian Berthelsen at christian.berthelsen@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 28, 2016 10:38 ET (14:38 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
032816 14:38 -- GMT
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