Natural Gas Corner - Technical Update - Bulls Back On The Defensive

The new front month June 16 natural gas contract closed nearly unchanged on Wednesday during expiration of the May contract losing 6 ticks to settle at 2.153.

The June contract has  been slowly losing ground from the 10-week high set on Monday at the  2.304 level selling back into the middle of the past 6-week trading range.

The 10 day moving average at 2.150 has been broken as support in today’s early trade turning the near term trend back down.  The 40 day average at 2.060 now becomes the next longer term support.

There should be good buying interest for the June contract at the lower-2.000 level as the market is expected to remain in a sideways to higher uptrend over upcoming weeks.

 Bottom line – Bulls on the defensive with 10 day moving average support broken.

 Technical Indicators:  Moving Average Alignment  - Neutral

                                          Long Term RMI Trend Following Index – Bullish
                                          Short Term RMI Trend Following Index - Bullish

 

Earthsat 15 Day Forecast

Analysts' Estimates For Today's EIA Weekly Storage Report

DJ Analysts Expect Increase in U.S. Natural-Gas Inventories



  By Christian Berthelsen


  Analysts expect government data scheduled for release on Thursday to show natural-gas inventories rose more than
average last week.

  The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report storage levels increased 71.4 billion cubic feet
during the week ended April 22, according to the average forecast of 10 analysts, brokers and traders surveyed by The
Wall Street Journal.

  The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data for the week on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. ET.

  For the April 22 week, the median estimate was for an increase of 69.5 billion cubic feet. Estimates ranged from
increases of 65 bcf to 84 bcf.

  The estimate for April 22 compares with 84 bcf added to storage in the same week last year and a five-year average
increase of 52 bcf for that week.

  If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of April 22 totaled 2.555 trillion cubic feet, 51% above year-ago
levels and 48% above the five-year average for the same week.
    --Write to Christian Berthelsen at christian.berthelsen@wsj.com


  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

  April 27, 2016 16:17 ET (20:17 GMT)

  Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

042716 20:17 -- GMT
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On The Road

I will be traveling until Friday so posts will be limited.

Natural Gas Corner - Technical Review - Continued Selling On Tuesday

Natural gas prices came under selling pressure for a second day on Tuesday as the spot May 16 contract falls back toward the middle of the past 6-week trading range.

After posted a new 10-week high at the 2.176 level on Monday, the May contract has sold steadily back lower losing an additional .031 on Tuesday to settle the day at 2.032.

The May contract has been in an upwardly sloping price channel since setting a new contract low at the 1.731 level in early-March.  The upper end of this price channel was reached on Monday.  The lower end of this price channel is currently near 1.960 and will remain key support in addition to the 40 day moving average at 1.950. 

A close under lower channel and 40 day moving average supports will turn the longer term trend back down likely leading to a retest of the 1.731 contract low as support.

Bottom line – Until channel support or resistance is broken, expect choppy, sideway trade.

Technical Indicators:  Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish

                                         Long Term RMI Trend Following Index – Bullish
                                         Short Term RMI Trend Following Index – Bullish

 

MDA Earthsat 15 Day Forecast

Latest 6-10 and 8-14 Day National Weather Service Forecasts - Still Cooler In The Central U.S.

Dow Jones - Natural Gas Prices Continue To Retreat

DJ Natural Gas Prices Continue to Retreat


  By Nicole Friedman


  NEW YORK--Natural gas prices continued to retreat Tuesday from nearly three-month highs on concerns about weak
demand.

  Futures for May delivery settled down 3.1 cents, or 1.5%, to $2.032 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange.

  Robust output and moderate indoor-heating demand has pushed the natural-gas market into oversupply, with inventories
standing nearly 50% above average levels for this time of year.

  However, weather-driven demand is expected to remain moderate in the coming two weeks, according to forecasters.

  "The caution flag is flying as the market remains oversupplied," Dominick Chirichella, analyst at the Energy
Management Institute, said in a note.

  Prices rallied 31% through April 22 after hitting a 17-year low March 3, as signs of declining production boosted
expectations that the glut of natural gas would shrink by late 2016 or 2017.

  "U.S. production has flattened over the past 18 months due to falling investment on weaker prices and a lack of
incremental pipeline capacity," said Jefferies in a note. "We see supply declines surfacing this year just as demand
growth for cheap natural gas energy truly sets in."


  Write to Nicole Friedman at nicole.friedman@wsj.com


  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

  April 26, 2016 15:25 ET (19:25 GMT)

  Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

042616 19:25 -- GMT
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Natural Gas Corner - Morning Update

Natural Gas Corner - Technical Update - Failed Breakout Attempt On Monday

The May 16 natural gas contract rallied up to a new 10-week high at the 2.176 level in Monday’s early trade also briefly moving above upper channel trend line resistance. 

However, the breakout failed to hold as sellers came back in by mid-morning dropping the May contract to a 2.063 daily settle, down .077 or 3.6%. 

A bearish dark cloud cover Japanese candlestick was posted on Monday and has been confirmed with lower trade today.  The 10 day moving average at 2.030 is the first area of support today with key longer term support between 1.940-1.960.

1.940-1.960 represents both lower channel trend line as well as the 40 day moving average supports.  A close under this support area will turn the longer term trend back down likely leading to a retest of the 1.731 contract low.

A breakout above 2.170-2.180 will keep the near term uptrend in place with following resistance at the 2.200-2.210 area.

Bottom line – Bulls back on the defensive following Monday’s failed upside breakout.

Technical Indicators:  Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish

                                         Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish

                                         Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish

Platt's - U.S. Natural Gas Production Dipped In March

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-natural-gas-production-dipped-in-march-platts-analytics-300256540.html

MDA Earthsat 15 Day Forecast

Dow Jones - Natural Gas Pulls Back From 3-Month High

DJ Natural Gas Pulls Back From Three-Month High

  By Christian Berthelsen

  Natural gas futures pulled back Monday from nearly three-month highs reached on Friday as traders closed out bets
ahead of contract expiry later this week.

  The front-month May natural gas contract was down 3% at $2.0750 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange, after matching its highest settlement since Feb. 1 on Friday. Natural gas has rallied 30% since
touching a 17-year low on March 3, amid evidence of falling production and a cool start to spring that has raised hope
for late-season gas-fired heating demand.

  The May contract expires Wednesday. Most of the trading volume in the market has already moved forward into the June
contract, which was down 3.1% at $2.1960 a million Btus.

  Tom Saal, a broker with INTL FC Stone in Miami, said the market remained bullish despite Monday's retreat with prices
remaining above $2 a million Btus.

  "It's still showing some strength from where it's been," Mr. Saal said.

  The latest forecasts show below-normal temperatures clinging in various parts of the country into early May.
Write to Christian Berthelsen at christian.berthelsen@wsj.com


  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

  April 25, 2016 10:36 ET (14:36 GMT)

  Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

042516 14:36 -- GMT
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