Natural Gas Corner Update - Volume Suggests A Market Low Is In Place

It is exceeding difficult to attempt in predicting when a price high or low has been set in a particular market.

However, price action over the past three days in the natural gas market is indicative of a market low having been set in this week’s trade.

The reason recent trade is indicative of a low having been set is the sharp rise in volume seen during this time frame.

Volume over the past three days has spiked sharply higher which is typical near a market high or low.

While setbacks are to be expected, there is a good possibility that a second and final seasonal low for 2014 has been set in the market.

Whether or not a final low has been posted, it is important to complete winter 14-15 coverage as soon as possible.

Last year’s winter rally lifted the spot contract price to $6.490 in February.

While the market may not revisit last year’s winter highs, the potential for another volatile winter remains strong.

Dow Jones - Morning Natural Gas Commentary

DJ Natural Gas Continues Four-Day Winning Streak


   By Nicole Friedman


  NEW YORK--Natural gas rose Friday for a fourth straight day, erasing some of the contract's monthly losses, as
traders expected colder weather to boost demand for the heating fuel.

  Winter is the highest-demand season for natural gas, which half of U.S. households use as a primary heating fuel.
Though forecasts had been calling for moderate temperatures through early November, updated projections are calling for
colder weather.

  The current outlook "sets the stage for more cold air outbreaks for the Midwest, East and South as the calendar heads
toward mid-November," said Bethesda, Md.-based forecaster Commodity Weather Group LLC in a note Friday.

  Natural gas for December recently rose seven cents, or 1.8%, to $3.897 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange. Prices fell below $3.60/mmBtu earlier this month.

  "Prices are moving decidedly higher this morning as colder changes in the weather forecasts motivate seasonal
buyers," said Teri Viswanath, director of commodity strategy of natural gas for BNP Paribas SA, in a note. "The abrupt
change in the forecasts has seemingly provided an excuse for these investors to initiate an early seasonal bet on the
winter ahead."

  At the same time, natural-gas production has been particularly robust and output growth is expected to continue.
Producers put 87 billion cubic feet of natural gas into storage last week, according to the U.S. Energy Information
Administration, more than the 85 bcf increase analysts and traders had expected.

  Natural gas for next-day delivery at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana recently traded at $3.685/mmBtu, according
to Intercontinental Exchange Inc., versus Thursday's average of $3.7414/mmBtu.

  Natural gas for next-day delivery at Transcontinental Zone 6 in New York traded at $2.80/mmBtu, compared with
$2.8089/mmBtu Thursday.


  Write to Nicole Friedman at nicole.friedman@wsj.com


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  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

  October 31, 2014 09:52 ET (13:52 GMT)

  Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

103114 13:52 -- GMT
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Another Three Days Of Colder Temperatures In The North

Natural Gas Technical Update - Market Low Likely Set This Week

Trade in the natural gas market over the past 2 days as well as in the overnight session appears like a second and final seasonal low for 2014 has been posted.

The December 14 contract fell down to a new contract low of 3.620 on Tuesday but has been rallying sharply higher ever since.  The contract broke out above the 10 day moving average for the first time during the month of October on Wednesday which held as support at Thursday’s low.

Buying has continued in the overnight session rallying the market higher in today’s early trade.  The next upside resistance now becomes the 40 day moving average at the 3.960 level today.  A breakout above this average would turn the longer term trend back higher.

The 10 day moving average at 3.760 will remains primary support in upcoming trade.  As long as the December contract trades above this average, the near term trend will remain up.

Technical Indicators:  Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
                                         Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
                                         Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish

Crude Oil Technical Update - Bearish Triangle Pattern Completed On Thursday

 The December 14 crude oil  contract appears to be forming a small triangle pattern.  If this pattern forms as expected, it will have a 75% chance of being a continuation pattern down to a new price low.

The December contract on Wednesday attempted an upside breakout above 10 day moving average resistance.  This breakout failed on Thursday forming the 4th and final point of the triangle.

A breakout under lower triangle trend line support currently near the 79.80 level will trigger the triangle.  The downside measuring objective for the triangle is approximately 4.00 which would point toward the lower-76.00 area for completion.

There is a smaller 25% chance the breakout from the triangle will instead come to the upside above resistance near the 82.50 level.   If this occurs, the longer term trend will turn back higher and 86.50 will then become the  upside measuring objective for the triangle pattern.

Technical Indicators:  Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
                                         Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
                                         Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish

Natural Gas Corner - Market Update - The Winter Rally Is On

Trade in the natural gas market this week has been quite impressive.

After most of the forward contracts fell to new all-time price lows in early trade on Tuesday, the market reversed back higher by the session's close.

Prices remained well bid during Wednesday and Thursday's sessions.  But what really got my attention was market reaction following yesterday's EIA storage report which came in at the higher range of pre-report expectations.

The market briefly sold off after release of the weekly storage report but was able to climb back by the close settling up nearly .040.

Above-normal weather forecasts and a higher than expected weekly storage injection both failed to move the market lower which means trader focus has shifted elsewhere.  And that focus is now on the blast of colder weather that has moved across much of the U.S.

The first round of winter heating demand has rallied the market higher in the face of otherwise bearish news. While setbacks are to be expected, the winter rally in the natural gas market looks like it has begun.

How high the winter rally takes the market will depend on heating demand for natural gas.  But if winter forecasts prove correct, a rally at least back toward the 4.800-5.000 level is expected over upcoming months.

Natural Gas Storage Report - 87 Bcf Injection - High End Of Estimates

For the week ended Oct 24:

EIA Injection - 87 BCF
Last Year's Injection - 45 BCF
5 Yr Avg Injection - 59 BCF

Range of Estimates - 82 BCF to 91 BCF
Avg Estimate - 85 BCF

Total Gas in Storage - 3.480 TCF

Dow Jones - Morning Natural Gas Commentary

DJ Natural Gas Prices Gain on Expected Cold Weather


   By Nicole Friedman


  NEW YORK--Natural gas prices rose for a third straight session Thursday on expectations of cold weather this weekend,
but gains are muted as weekly U.S. inventory data are expected to show a larger-than-average build in supplies.

  Natural gas for December delivery rose 2.3 cents, or 0.6%, to $3.811 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange.

  Prices retreated this month as forecasts called for above-normal temperatures, which would limit demand for natural
gas as a heating fuel.

  Futures rebounded slightly in recent days on calls for a bout of low temperatures this weekend. After an "impressive
but fast cold push" this week, the weather is expected to be moderate in the next two weeks, according to Bethesda,
Md.-based forecaster Commodity Weather Group LLC.

  A frigid winter in late 2013 and early 2014 fueled record natural-gas demand and depleted stockpiles, but those have
rebuilt more rapidly than expected this year as production has boomed.

  As of Oct. 17, inventories stood at 3.393 trillion cubic feet, 9.1% below the five-year average level for the week,
according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

  The EIA is set to release its storage data for the week ended Oct. 24 at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

  Analysts and traders expect the report to show that producers put 85 billion cubic feet of gas into storage last
week, more than the five-year average supply build for the week.

  Natural gas for next-day delivery at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana recently traded at $3.66/mmBtu, according
to Intercontinental Exchange Inc., versus Wednesday's average of $3.5619/mmBtu.

  Natural gas for next-day delivery at Transcontinental Zone 6 in New York traded between $2.60 and $2.90/mmBtu,
compared with $2.6586/mmBtu Wednesday.


  Write to Nicole Friedman at nicole.friedman@wsj.com


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  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

  October 30, 2014 09:05 ET (13:05 GMT)

  Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

103014 13:05 -- GMT

Natural Gas Technical Update - Market Showing Impressive Strength

The new front month December 14 natural gas contract broke out above 10 day moving average resistance on Wednesday gaining .057 (1.5%) to settle the day at 3.788.  This was the first breakout above this average since early-October and could be the start of a trend turn back higher. 

The December contract reversed back higher over the past two sessions after trading down to a new contract low of 3.620 in early trade on Tuesday.

With 10 day moving average resistance broken, the next resistance level to clear will be the former daily lows between 3.877-3.901.  A close back over this former support which coincides with 40 day moving average resistance at 3.960 would be a good indication that a market low has been set.

A drop  back under the 10 day moving average which is support today at 3.755 would turn the near term trend back down with following support at the 3.620 contract low.

Technical Indicators:  Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
                                         Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
                                         Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish

Crude Oil Technical Update - Bearish Triangle Consolidation Pattern May Be Forming

Crude oil prices trended higher for a second day in Wednesday’s trade with the December 14 contract closing back above 10 day moving average resistance.

The December contract closed Wednesday’s session at 82.20, up .78 for the day.

Nearly all of yesterday’s gains have been erased in today’s early trade as the December contract has again fallen back under the 10 day moving average at 81.65.  If weakness continues, the 79.10 and 79.44 weekly lows will become the next longer term support area.

Upside resistance for today begins at yesterday’s 82.88 high extending up to 83.15.  Longer term resistance is 84.00-84.10 and the 40 day moving average at 87.40.

Failure to extend the past two days’ gains today is bearish.   A small triangle appears to be forming over the past two weeks which would likely be a bearish continuation pattern toward a new price low.

Technical Indicators:  Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
                                         Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
                                         Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish

Increased Heating Demand For Natural Gas Over The Next Three Days

Latest 6-10 and 8-14 Day National Weather Service Forecasts - Not Bullish

Natural Gas Corner - Market Review - Market Remains Well Bid In The Face of Bearish Weather and Storage Injection Forecasts

Natural gas prices remained strong for a second day today with the new front month December 14 contract up over .200 from yesterday's early morning low.

The recent strength in the market is interesting as it comes in the face of above-normal weather forecasts into the early weeks of November.  These forecasts could obviously change but were bearish heading into today's session.

There is expected to a be slight increase in weather-related demand for natural gas this weekend as colder temperatures arrive in the upper U.S.  But with storage injections record large and production reaching a new high in October, a prolonged period of  below-normal temperatures will be needed to keep a sustained bid under the market.

Tomorrow's storage number is expected to be higher than normal with an average guesstimate for an 85 Bcf injection.

If the natural gas market can move higher over the next few days with bearish 6-10 and 8-14 day weather forecasts and an expectedly high storage injection, it would likely indicate the winter rally has begun.

Dow Jones - Analysts' Estimates For Tomorrow's Natural Gas Storage Report

DJ Analysts Expect 85 Billion-Cubic-Feet Addition to U.S. Natural Gas Stocks
  By Christian Berthelsen


  U.S. natural gas stockpiles likely rose 44% more than average for this time of year, according to a survey of
analysts by The Wall Street Journal.

  The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that gas storage levels rose by 85 billion cubic
feet in the week ended Oct. 24, according to the average estimate of a survey of 16 analysts and traders.

  The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data for the week at 10:30 a.m. EDT Thursday.

  For the Oct. 24 week, the median estimate is for an addition of 85 bcf. Estimates range from increases of 82 bcf to
91 bcf.

  The average estimate is more than the 45 bcf added to storage for the same week last year and the 59-bcf, five-year
average injection for that week.

  If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of Oct. 24 totaled 3.478 trillion cubic feet, 7.8% below levels
from a year ago and 8.2% below the five-year average for the same week.


  Write to Christian Berthelsen at Christian.Berthelsen@wsj.com

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  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

  October 29, 2014 12:57 ET (16:57 GMT)

  Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

102914 16:57 -- GMT
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Natural Gas Technical Update - 10 Day Moving Average Resistance Holds - Bearish

After setting a new 2014 and contract low of 3.541 in early trade on Tuesday, the November 14 natural gas contract reversed course and rallied sharply higher into the close.

Gains for the day for the November contract which expires on today’s close amounted to .088 (2.4%) settling at 3.649.

The 10 day moving average held as resistance at yesterday’s high as well as in the overnight session. 
Failure to breakout above this resistance today at 3.670 would be a bearish signal keeping the primary trend bearish.

If resistance holds, the 3.541 low set yesterday will again become primary support.

A breakout above the 10 day average would turn the near term trend back up possibly indicating  a seasonal low in the market has finally been set.

The next few sessions will be technically important for the natural gas market.

Technical Indicators:  Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
                                         Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
                                         Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish

Crude Oil Technical Update - 10 Day Moving Average Resistance Broken - Trend May Be Turning Up

The trend for the December 14 crude oil contract may be on the verge of turning back higher following today’s breakout above 10 day moving average resistance.

After a lower start on Tuesday, the December contract rallied back higher into the close settling the day at 81.42, up .42.

If the December contract can hold above the 10 day moving average at the 81.65 level today, it would be the first daily close above this average since late-September.

The next upside resistance levels now become previous daily highs at 83.15 and 84.00-84.10.  Longer term resistance is the 40 day moving average currently at 87.70.

If the December contract falls back under 10 day moving average support at 81.65, the primary trend will remain down with following support at the 79.44 weekly low and the 79.10 low set two weeks ago.

Technical Indicators:  Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
                                         Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
                                         Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish

A Cold Halloween Predicted Across Much of the Upper U.S.

Latest 6-10 and 8-14 Day National Weather Service Forecasts-Bearish

Natural Gas Corner - Market Review - Short-Covering Today or Something More?

Natural gas prices surged higher on Tuesday in late day trade with the spot November contract gaining over .100 or nearly 3% on the session.  The rally came after the November contract set a new contract low at 3.541 in earlier in the day.

Part of the rally may have been short-covering ahead of tomorrow's November 14 futures expiration or it could have been related to November 14 option expiration today.

But weather could also be a factor as short-term forecasts predicted the first hint of winter heating demand possibly coming in to the market later this week.  The below-normal temperatures are not expected to last according to the latest 6-10 and 8-14 day NWS forecasts which predict above-normal temperatures across the entire lower-48 states into the first weeks of November.

Storage which is currently 3,393 Bcf is expected to climb into the 3,550-3,600 Bcf range before peaking which will leave the market under previous years' storage levels but well-supplied heading into winter.

Increased production which is estimated to be 3.3 Bcf per day higher this upcoming winter over last according to the EIA could add an additional 400-500 Bcf of gas into the market.  This has been another bearish factor for the market in recent trade.

The market trend has been nearly straight down over the past 3 weeks as storage injections remain high and weather-related demand light.  Storage injections during the first 3 weeks of October have been 26% higher then over the past 5 years.  And this week's storage number could be another historically large injection.

The catalyst needed to reverse the downtrend will first need to be more bullish weather forecasts followed by an actual draw down from natural gas stockpiles.

If the natural gas market can continue higher over the next few days following today's bullish reversal, it might indicate the market focus is shifting from high stock piles and production to the possibility for another cold winter.

Dow Jones - Morning Natural Gas Commentary

DJ Natural Gas Hovers Near 11-Month Lows


   By Nicole Friedman


  NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices edged higher Tuesday but held near 11-month lows on expectations of tepid heating demand
in the coming weeks.

  Natural gas for November delivery rose 1.2 cents, or 0.3%, to $3.573 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange.

  Prices have slid for weeks on indications that the winter-heating season, typically the strongest time of the year
for natural-gas demand, would not be off to an early start. About half of U.S. households use natural gas as their
primary heating fuel.

  Forecasts are calling for mostly above-normal temperatures in the next two weeks, though Tuesday's projections are
slightly cooler than prior forecasts.

  "This weekend should see temperatures in the East at the coolest levels since about middle April," said forecaster
Commodity Weather Group LLC in a note Tuesday. "But by the middle of next week, the modeling is in good agreement on
widespread warming for the Midwest, East and South."

  Natural gas for next-day delivery at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana recently traded at $3.51/mmBtu, according
to Intercontinental Exchange Inc., versus Monday's average of $3.5447/mmBtu.

  Natural gas for next-day delivery at Transcontinental Zone 6 in New York traded between $2.57 and $3/mmBtu, compared
with $2.7404/mmBtu Monday.


  Write to Nicole Friedman at nicole.friedman@wsj.com


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  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

  October 28, 2014 09:40 ET (13:40 GMT)

  Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

102814 13:40 -- GMT
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Natural Gas Technical Update - New Contract Low Set In Overnight Trade

The November 14 natural gas contract has fallen to a new contract low at 3.541 in the overnight session.

The overnight selling following yesterday’s sell off during which the November contract lost .062 (1.7%) to settle at 3.561.

The primary trend remains down with the current overnight low of 3.541 being the first area of support followed by 3.490-3.500.  Longer term support is the 3.379 weekly low set in November 2013.

Upside resistance is the 3.644 weekly high followed closely behind by the 10 day moving average at 3.675.  A rally and close back above the 10 day average could be an early indication of at least a near term low being set in the market.

Technical Indicators:  Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
                                         Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
                                         Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish

Crude Oil Technical Update - Weekly Low Support Holds On Monday - Bullish Turn Back Higher?

The December 14 crude oil contract spiked under 80.00 support in early trade on Monday bottoming out at a 79.44 intraday low.  But as the contract couldn’t push under the 79.10 support level, it moved back higher into the close settling the day down 1 cent at 81.00.

Yesterday was a key test of downside support which held and could mark a turning point back higher for crude oil prices following 3 ½ months of relentless selling. 

The 10 day moving average at 81.55 today is the first area of resistance.  The December contract has not closed above 10 day moving average resistance since September 29th.

A breakout above 81.55 followed by 82.00 resistance would turn the near  term trend back up with 83.15 and 84.00-84.10 then becoming the next upside resistance areas.

If resistance holds, the lower-80.00 is the first area of support followed by the 79.10 and 79.44 weekly lows.  A drop under the weekly lows would turn 74.00-75.00 into the next longer term support.

Technical Indicators:  Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
                                         Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
                                         Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish

Weather Outlook Colder For Later This Week - Might Impact Storage Injections

Colder temperatures coming into the upper part of the U.S. later this week.

With winter heating demand for natural gas possibly increasing, the market may stabilize near term after three weeks of heavy selling.

Bloomberg - End of Day Natural Gas Commentary

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-27/natural-gas-drops-as-mild-weather-limits-heating-needs.html

Bloomberg - Natural Gas Down On Milder Weather

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-27/natural-gas-drops-as-mild-weather-limits-heating-needs.html

Dow Jones - Morning Natural Gas Commentary

DJ Natural Gas Weakens as Weather Stays Mild


   By Nicole Friedman


  NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices slipped near 11-month intraday lows Monday as forecasts for mild weather extended into
the second week of November.

  Futures have fallen for weeks on expectations that above-normal temperatures would damp demand for natural gas, which
is used as a heating fuel.

  Updated weather forecasts call for "a rather mild stretch of weather or lack of cold across a vast portion of the
nation" in the next 11 to 15 days, according to Andover, Mass.-based forecaster WSI Corp.

  Natural-gas production has been more robust than expected this summer. "More supply is anticipated to be available
this winter to meet peak heating demand requirements," Teri Viswanath, director of commodity strategy for natural gas
at BNP Paribas SA, said in a note.

  Natural gas for November delivery recently fell 6 cents, or 1.7%, to $3.563 a million British thermal units on the
New York Mercantile Exchange, near the lowest intraday price since last November.

  Natural gas for next-day delivery at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana recently traded at $3.555/mmBtu, according
to Intercontinental Exchange Inc., versus Friday's average of $3.5324/mmBtu.

  Natural gas for next-day delivery at Transcontinental Zone 6 in New York traded between $1.85 and $2.64/mmBtu,
compared with $2.3959/mmBtu Friday.


  Write to Nicole Friedman at nicole.friedman@wsj.com


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  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

  October 27, 2014 09:26 ET (13:26 GMT)

  Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

102714 13:26 -- GMT
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Natural Gas Technical Update - Market Enters Into A 4th Week Lower

Natural gas prices closed down for a third consecutive week in last week’s trade with the spot November 14 contract falling by .143 or 3.8% to settle Friday at 3.623.

The November contract rallied back toward unchanged in late trade on Friday after setting a new contract low of 3.558 in earlier in the day.  This low extending down to 3.545 is the first area of support today followed by 3.490-3.500. 

Longer term support is the November 2013 weekly low of 3.379.  It was from the November 2013 low that the winter 13-14 rally began.

There is still no sign of the market bottoming as sellers have come back in during early trade today.  Once the market does bottom, it should be a V reversal back higher. 

A close back above 10 day moving average resistance currently at 3.705 is needed to turn the near term trend back higher.

Hedge funds continue to liquidate existing long positions as the market sinks to new lows for the year.  The speculative long position (futures only) in natural gas fell by 11,432 contracts last week to 150,432 according the Commitment of Trader’s report  released on Friday. 

Technical Indicators:  Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
                                         Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
                                         Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish

Crude Oil Technical Update - 80.00 Support Broken In Today's Early Trade

The crude oil market traded flat in last week’s trade holding above 80.00 support over the 5 days of trade.   The new front month December 14 contract lost 1.05 over the course of the week settling Friday at 81.01.

The 10 day moving average held as daily high resistance 4 out of 5 days last week.  This average at 81.40 held again near today’s 81.29 high which keeps the primary market trend bearish.

80.00 support has been broken overnight which turns the 79.10 low set two weeks ago into the next downside support.  Following support is the 77.28 low posted in June 2012.  If 77.28 support is broken, the 74.95 and 75.71 weekly lows from late-2011/early-2012 will become the next downside support levels.

Sellers remain in control as the crude oil market approaches multi-year price lows.  Funds continue to hold a surprisingly large speculative long position of 280,101 contracts according to the COT report released on Friday.  A drop under recent lows could trigger further stop-loss selling by the funds.

Technical Indicators:  Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
                                         Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
                                         Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish

Natural Gas Seasonal Price Trend Update - Still Searching For A Seasonal Low

 

The seasonal trend chart for natural gas shows historical price movement in the market  over the past 3 and 5 years.

This year's second low is coming at a later date than normal.  Once a final low is in place, the winter rally back higher should follow.

Commitment Of Trader's Report - Continued Fund Liquidation in Natural Gas

The "smartest men in the room" supposedly the hedge funds haven't had too much luck this year in the natural gas market.  After accumulating a record high long position of 488,901 contracts on the February 2014 high, funds have been reluctantly selling as the market hits new lows for the year.

Friday's Commitment of Trader's report showed funds long 150,432 contracts (futures only), down 11,847 from the previous week.

6-10 Day National Weather Service Forecast - Colder

The latest 6-10 day NWS service forecast is finally showing the possibility for some winter heating demand to possibly materialize in the Northeast later this month.  The market doesn't seem too concerned as it is currently trading back toward last week's lows.

Dow Jones - End of Day Natural Gas Commentary

DJ Natural Gas Rallies on Signs of Chill and Bargain Buying



  By Timothy Puko


  NEW YORK--Natural gas prices rebounded Friday, flipping from morning losses into small gains on slight signs of cool
weather and an influx of bargain buyers, analysts said.

  The front-month November contract settled up 0.1 cent, or 0.03%, to $3.623 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange. Prices had hit a new intraday low for 2014, dipping to $3.558/mmBtu before a steady rally
started after 11 a.m.

  Updated weather forecasts show a slight chill possible for the start of November, analysts said. That could drive
heating demand at a time when traders had expected temperatures to be comfortable.

  But the change was only slight, and the new low prices may have played an even larger role in the move, said Aaron
Calder, senior market analyst at energy-consulting firm Gelber & Associates in Houston. The $3.50/mmBtu mark is key in
the natural gas market because it is likely to spur more demand from power generators who will then find gas cheap
enough to displace coal, he said.

  "It's just a bargain-hunting rally," Mr. Calder said.

  Analysts at Barclays PLC said Friday that could be a theme for the winter. With coal deliveries often blocked by
congested railroads and nuclear plants also down for maintenance, natural gas demand is likely to stay high enough to
prevent any price dip below $3.50/mmBtu, they said.

  "While power demand...looks low now, the potential exists for an increase," analysts Christopher Louney and Michael
Cohen wrote.

FUTURES           SETTLEMENT         NET CHANGE

Nymex November    $3.623             +0.1c
Nymex December    $3.698              -0.8c
Nymex January     $3.787              -0.4c

CASH HUB          RANGE                        PREVIOUS DAY
El Paso Perm     $3.25-$3.35                  $3.37-$3.485
El Paso SJ      $3.25-$3.305                  $3.42-$3.485
Henry Hub        $3.46-$3.545                 $3.585-$3.605
Katy            $3.40-$3.47                   $3.50-$3.55
SoCal           $3.40-$3.47                   $3.58-$3.68
Tex East M3      $1.50-$2.00                  $1.55-$2.15
Transco 65      $3.47-$3.5225                 $3.525-$3.575
Transco Z6     $2.29-$2.55                    $2.70-$3.00
Waha             $3.34-$3.385                 $3.50-$3.52


  Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com


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  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

  October 24, 2014 15:11 ET (19:11 GMT)

  Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

102414 19:11 -- GMT
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Dow Jones - Morning Natural Gas Commentary

DJ Natural Gas Pushes 2014 Low on Warm Weather


   By Timothy Puko


  NEW YORK--Natural gas prices are pushing their new 2014 lows even lower Friday with warm weather forecasts suggesting
little home heating demand through October.

  Natural gas for November delivery fell 4.2 cents, or 1.2%, at $3.58 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. This puts gas on a three-day losing streak with losses in eight of the last nine sessions.

  The front-month price has firmly broken out of the $3.80/mmBtu to $4/mmBtu range it had traded in between mid-July
and mid-October. Record supply, coupled with limited demand because of warm weather have traders abandoning concern
over once-low stockpiles and selling off just weeks before winter.

  Weather forecasts show winter chill won't be coming soon. They have been predicting above-normal October temperatures
for weeks and Thursday showed those spreading, especially in the big Midwest markets.

  Technical traders have piled on, pushing a selloff even harder, said Frank Clements, co-owner of Meridian Energy
Brokers Inc. outside New York. He expects prices to mimic last year, dropping below $3.50/mmBtu and not rising for the
winter until at least the first week of November.

  "The thing is going to snowball," Mr. Clements said.

  Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $3.5275/mmBtu, compared with
Thursday's range of $3.585-$3.605. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York last traded at $2.29/mmBtu, compared
with Thursday's range of $2.70 to $3.00.


  Write to Timothy Puko at Tim.Puko@wsj.com


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  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

  October 24, 2014 09:35 ET (13:35 GMT)

  Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

102414 13:35 -- GMT
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Natural Gas Technical Update - Unrelentless Slide Lower

The natural gas market remains in a very bearish downtrend which currently shows no signs of bottoming.

The November 14 contract has now closed lower 7 out of the past 8 sessions after breaking out from a 13-week sideways range last week.  In yesterdays’ trade, the contract lost another .037 to settle at 3.622.

A new contract low of 3.564 has been set in the overnight session.  This low extending down to a weekly chart low of 3.545 is the first area of support today followed by 3.490-3.500. 

Longer term support is the 3.376 weekly low posted last November.  It was from the November 2013 low that the winter 13-14 rally began.

Upside resistance for today begins at 3.610-3.620 followed by the 3.658 low set last November.  Longer term resistance is the 10 day moving average currently at 3.735.  As long as the November contract trades under the 10 day average, the near term trend will remain down.

Technical Indicators:  Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
                                         Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
                                         Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish

Crude Oil Technical Update - 10 Day Moving Average Resistance Holds - Bearish

The December 14 crude oil contract rallied off 80.00 support on Thursday but stalled for a third time this week below 10 day moving average resistance.

The December contract gained 1.57 in Thursday’s trade settling at 82.09. 

The 10 day moving average at 81.95 today has held as resistance on the daily high which has led to renewed selling pressure in early trade.  Yesterday’s 80.05 low is the first area of support today followed by the 79.10 low set last week.

A drop under would keep the downtrend intact turning a 77.28 weekly low from June 2012 into the next downside support.

A rally and close above the 10 day moving average at 81.95 followed by the 83.26 weekly high would likely signal a low is in place for the market.

Technical Indicators:  Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
                                         Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
                                         Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish

Latest 6-10 and 8-14 Day National Weather Service Forecasts - Not Much Change

EIA Storage Injection - 94 Bcf - Slightly Lower Than Median Estimate

For the week ended Oct 17:

EIA Injection - 94 BCF
Last Year's Injection - 86 BCF
5 Yr Avg Injection - 70 BCF

Range of Estimates - 79 BCF to 103 BCF
Avg Estimate - 97 BCF

Total Gas in Storage - 3.393 TCF

Dow Jones - Morning Natural Gas Commentary

DJ Natural Gas Prices Fall to 11-Month Low Ahead of Storage Report


   By Matt Day


  NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices slid to the lowest level in nearly a year on Thursday as traders awaited data expected
to show U.S. stockpiles of the fuel last week increased by more than average for this time of year.

  Natural gas for November delivery fell 4.1 cents, or 1.1%, to $3.618 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. Futures early Thursday slumped to $3.609/mmBtu, the lowest price since November 2013.

  Prices have fallen in six of the past seven trading days, weighed by record production. Demand, meanwhile, has been
tempered by mild weather that kept gas-powered heaters off at homes and businesses.

  Meteorologists with MDA Weather Services expect warmer-than-normal temperatures to last through the end of the month
in major gas-consuming cities across the Midwest and the Northeast.

  "Record production levels of gas, a cool summer and a mild fall continue to depress the market," analysts with
Tradition Energy said in a note.

  The Energy Information Administration is expected to report that the amount of natural gas in U.S. storage rose last
week by 40% more than average for this time of year. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect the government
data to show 97 billion cubic feet of gas was added to storage during the week ended Oct. 17.

  The EIA is scheduled to release its data for the week at 10:30 a.m. EDT.


  Write to Matt Day at matt.day@wsj.com


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  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

  October 23, 2014 09:20 ET (13:20 GMT)

  Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

102314 13:20 -- GMT
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Natural Gas Technical Update - How Low Can It Go?

A small rally higher on Tuesday by the November 14 natural gas contract was met with a wave of renewed selling in yesterday’s session. 

For the day, the November contract fell by .052 (1.4%) erasing all the previous day’s gains to settle at 3.659.

Selling has continued overnight dropping the November contract to a new contract low  of 3.616.  The next support areas from the weekly chart are 3.545-3.550, 3.490-3.500 and 3.379 which was set in November 2013.

The near term trend for natural gas remains down.  But this is expected to be the final seasonal break for 2014.  Once a bottom does form, a winter rally back higher is expected.  A breakout above weekly high resistance between 4.150-4.200 is needed to turn the longer term trend back higher.

Technical Indicators:  Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
                                         Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
                                         Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish

Crude Oil Technical Update - 80.00 Support Holds On Early Weakness Today

An early rally attempt on Wednesday by the December 14 crude oil contract stalled at 10 day moving average resistance topping out at a 83.15 early morning high.

As resistance held, the market tipped back lower into the close with the November contract losing 1.97 (2.3%) to settle at 80.52.

The trend remains down with the current overnight low of 80.05 being the first area of support followed by last week’s 79.10 low.  A drop under 79.10 support would turn the 77.28 weekly low from June 2012 into the next downside support.

The 10 day moving average is primary resistance today at 82.20.  A breakout above this average and Tuesday’s 83.26 weekly high could be an indication a market low is in place.

Technical Indicators:  Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
                                         Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
                                         Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish

Dow Jones - Analysts' Guesstimates For Today's EIA Natural Gas Storage Report

DJ Analysts See 97-Billion-Cubic-Feet Addition to U.S. Natural Gas Inventories

   By Timothy Puko


  Analysts and traders expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to show natural gas inventories rose by
nearly 40% more than average for this time of year.

  The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that storage levels rose by 97 billion cubic feet of
gas during the week ended Oct. 17, according to the average forecast of 16 analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall
Street Journal.

  The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data for the week on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

  For the Oct. 17 week, the median estimate is for an addition of 98 bcf. Estimates range from an increase of 79 bcf to
an increase of 103 bcf.

  The estimate for Oct. 17 is more than the 86 bcf added to storage for the same week last year and the 70-bcf
five-year average injection for that week.

  If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of Oct. 17 totaled 3.4 trillion cubic feet, 8.9% below levels from
a year ago and 9% below the five-year average for the same week.


  Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com>


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  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

  October 22, 2014 12:42 ET (16:42 GMT)

  Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

102214 16:42 -- GMT
------

Latest 6-10 and 8-14 Day National Weather Service Forecasts - Slightly Cooler

Dow Jones - End of Day Natural Gas Commentary

DJ Natural Gas Closes at New 11-Month Low as Traders Expect Big Surplus -- Update
  By Timothy Puko

  NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices set a new bottom for 2014 for the second time this week as traders expect news on a big
addition to winter stockpiles.

  The front-month November contract settled down 5.2 cents, or 1.4%, to $3.659 a million British thermal units on the
New York Mercantile Exchange. That is the lowest closing price for the front-month contract since Nov. 19 when it
closed at $3.556/mmBtu. Natural gas has lost ground in six of the last seven sessions, dropping 6.6% over that span.

  Record production and tepid demand have been pressuring the market since June. The U.S. Energy Information
Administration is likely to report Thursday that producers added around 97 billion cubic feet of gas to stockpiles last
week, according to the average forecast of 16 analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. That surplus is
nearly 40% larger than the five-year average for that week of the year and would be the fourth-largest addition for a
week in October dating to at least 1994, EIA data shows.

  "That's really rare," said Teri Viswanath, a natural-gas strategist at BNP Paribas SA in New York. "It's not just the
story of supply, it's the story of demand not showing up--and now the possibility, what if it doesn't show up, ever?"

  Weather forecasts are still showing above-normal temperatures through the end of the month, likely warm enough that
consumers won't use much natural gas for home heating. Long-term forecasts are largely predicting that cold winter
weather won't arrive before January and if that proves true, prices are likely to stay below $4 for weeks, said Gene
McGillian, an analyst at Tradition Energy.

  The EIA releases its weekly update on storage levels at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday.
FUTURES           SETTLEMENT           NET CHANGE

Nymex November    $3.659               -5.2c
Nymex December    $3.745               -5.5c
Nymex January     $3.828               -5.3c

CASH HUB          RANGE                            PREVIOUS DAY
El Paso Perm       $3.48-$3.56                        $3.46-$3.55
El Paso SJ         $3.49-$3.55                      $3.4625-$3.52
Henry Hub          $3.66-$3.70                        $3.60-$3.64
Katy              $3.595-$3.63                        $3.58-$3.64
SoCal              $3.62-$3.65                        $3.59-$3.65
Tex East M3      $2.425 -$2.69                        $2.25-$2.59
Transco 65         $3.63-$3.67                        $3.55-$3.64
Transco Z6         $2.59-$2.75                        $2.38-$2.70
Waha              $3.555-$3.58                        $3.53-$3.56

  Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com>

  -30-


  (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

  October 22, 2014 15:33 ET (19:33 GMT)

  Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

102214 19:33 -- GMT
------

Dow Jones - Morning Natural Gas Commentary

DJ Natural Gas Inches Down as Oversupply Continues


   By Timothy Puko


  NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices inched lower Wednesday, as comfortable weather and soft demand continued to encourage
selling.

  Natural gas for November delivery fell 1.9 cents, or 0.5%, at $3.692 a million British thermal units at the New York
Mercantile Exchange. The market is now down 5.7% since Oct. 13, with Tuesday bringing the only gains in the last seven
sessions.

  Weather forecasts are still showing above-normal temperatures through the end of the month, likely warm enough so
that consumers won't use much natural gas for home heating. Long-term forecasts are largely predicting that cold winter
weather won't arrive before January and if that proves true, prices are likely to stay below $4 for weeks, said Gene
McGillian, an analyst at Tradition Energy.

  "The market is treading water here," he said. "We just don't have any strong demand."

  Demand is weak enough that producers could put a record amount of natural gas into winter storage for mid-October,
Teri Viswanath, a natural-gas strategist at BNP Paribas SA in New York, said in a note. That is weighing heavily on
traders Wednesday, she said.

  The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its weekly update on storage levels at 10:30 a.m. Thursday.

  Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $3.6925/mmBtu, compared with
Tuesday's range of $3.60-$3.64. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York last traded at $2.70/mmBtu, compared with
Tuesday's range of $2.38 to $2.70.


  Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com


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  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

  October 22, 2014 09:45 ET (13:45 GMT)

  Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

102214 13:45 -- GMT
------

Natural Gas Technical Update - Market Remains In A Bearish Downtrend

The November 14 natural gas contract was able to regain its footing on Tuesday to close the day higher after falling to a new contract low in early trade.
After falling to a 3.631 morning low, the November contract reversed back higher and closed the session with a .041 gain settling at 3.711.

The primary trend for  the market remains down following last week’s breakout under 3.780-3.810 support.  A close back above this former support level should be an early indication the market trend has turned back higher.

Support for today begins at the 3.631 contract low set yesterday followed by weekly chart support at 3.450-3.500 and 3.379 which was a spot weekly low from November 2013.  It was from the November low that the winter 13-14 rally began.

Upside resistance begins at yesterday’s 3.716 high followed by the 10 day moving average at 3.785. 

Technical Indicators:  Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
                                         Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
                                         Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish

Crude Oil Technical Update - 10 Day Moving Average Resistance Holds Again On Tuesday

The new front month December 14 crude oil contract is pushing up against 10 day moving average resistance in today’s early trade.  A breakout above this average at 82.85 today could be an early signal the market trend is turning back higher.

In Tuesday’s session, the December contract held for a third day in a narrow sideways range bouncing higher in late trade to settle the day at 82.49, up .58.

If 10 day moving average resistance is broken, the near term trend will turn back up with 84.75-85.00 becoming the next upside resistance.

If resistance holds, the 80.78 weekly low will be the first area of support followed  by last week’s 79.10 low.  Longer term support is the 77.28 weekly low from June 2012.

A key test of underlying  market strength expected over the next few days of trade.

Technical Indicators:  Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
                                         Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
                                         Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish