Crude Oil Technical Update - Bearish Triangle Pattern Completed On Thursday

 The December 14 crude oil  contract appears to be forming a small triangle pattern.  If this pattern forms as expected, it will have a 75% chance of being a continuation pattern down to a new price low.

The December contract on Wednesday attempted an upside breakout above 10 day moving average resistance.  This breakout failed on Thursday forming the 4th and final point of the triangle.

A breakout under lower triangle trend line support currently near the 79.80 level will trigger the triangle.  The downside measuring objective for the triangle is approximately 4.00 which would point toward the lower-76.00 area for completion.

There is a smaller 25% chance the breakout from the triangle will instead come to the upside above resistance near the 82.50 level.   If this occurs, the longer term trend will turn back higher and 86.50 will then become the  upside measuring objective for the triangle pattern.

Technical Indicators:  Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
                                         Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
                                         Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish