Natural gas prices today moved back toward the lower end of the past 12 week trading range as bearish weather forecasts and predictions for another triple digit injection on Thursday continue to weigh on prices.
There is very little to get excited about on the bullish side as weekly chart trend line resistance held again for a second time last week at the 4.184 weekly high and upcoming weather forecasts have only grown hotter.
Above-average temperatures across nearly all the U.S. over the next 2 weeks should lead to very little demand for natural gas for either heating or cooling.
This year's shoulder season for natural gas has been exceptionally mild resulting in historically large storage injections over the past two weeks which have come in on the high side of pre-report estimates.
This week's injection could again come in with a triple digit reading in comparison to a 5-year average injection of 84 Bcf and last year's 91 Bcf injection.
If storage injections remain as high as they have been over the past few weeks during the upcoming 5 or 6 weeks until the end of the injection season, prices will likely remain weak.
The spot November 14 contract today broke out under trend line support at the 3.860-3.870 area that could be the beginning of another sell off lower in the market possibly toward the 3.500-3.600 area before a final low is set.
Once the market does bottom, a rally back higher into the early months of 2015 is expected.
Early forecasts for this current winter have been mixed mostly leaning toward a normal winter. But if this winter turns out colder than expected with less gas in storage than in previous years, there is the potential for an explosive winter rally similar to last year.
Use current weakness to extend forward coverage as needed. Winter 2014-15 should be completed now with an emphasis toward summer 15 (April 15-October 15) and longer dated coverage.
The first hint of winter heating demand and natural gas prices could soar.
A breakout above 4.150-4.200 resistance basis the spot contract would likely indicate the winter rally has begun.
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