The natural gas market remains mired in a sideways trading range that is now entering into a 12th week.
Price rallies into the 4.000-4.200 spot price level continue to be well sold while sell offs into the 3.750-3.850 area have been popular buying points over the past 3 months.
Weather forecasts and storage injections over the upcoming 5-6 weeks will be the primary factors affecting natural gas prices as the market attempts to carve out a final seasonal low.
Current storage of 3,100 Bcf (billion cubic feet) is below previous levels reached over the past two years, but ahead of analysts' forecasts for end of October storage.
Weather forecasts today "flip-flopped" back to above-normal temperatures across much of the U.S. which in October means little demand for natural gas for either cooling or heating.
Given the overly large storage injections made over the past two weeks and predictions for another triple digit injection in this week's EIA storage report, the market could fall to lower price levels near term than many people may have expected just a few months ago. Spot prices could possibly fall into the 3.400-3.500 area before bottoming.
But the lower prices go, the greater the opportunity because this winter is setting up to be colder than expected.
As an aside story, I was visiting a friend this past weekend in the North Georgia mountains who tends honeybee hives. He said the hornets this year are setting up their nests underground rather than in trees or other higher areas as usual.. Of all his years, he has never seen this type of activity and thinks it is a precursor to a very cold winter.
Time will tell as to whether his prediction is correct but shorts in the natural gas market may want to be wary for the first hint of a winter chill. With natural gas stocks lower than in past years, another volatile winter rally may lie ahead.
No comments:
Post a Comment