DJ Natural Gas Bounces After Prior-Day Selloff
By Christian Berthelsen
Natural-gas prices bounced off a two-week low on Friday as updated weather forecasts called for a
colder-than-expected blast over much of the middle of the U.S. next week.
The front-month April contract for natural gas was up 3.2 cents, or 1.2%, at $2.7290 a million British thermal units
on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices in the market have fallen more than 8% in the past week as withdrawals from
gas in storage to meet heating demand fell less than expected.
U.S. natural-gas stockpiles fell by 219 billion cubic feet in the week ended Feb. 20, the U.S. Energy Information
Administration said Thursday, compared with the 241-bcf draw that was predicted in a survey of analysts and traders by
The Wall Street Journal.
Though a late-winter blast of cold air is driving demand, it has been more than made up for by surging gas
production, which rose for 11 straight months to end of last year. Total stored supplies are 42% above year-ago levels
and just 1.5% below average for this time of year.
"The April contract is trying to get back onto its feet," research consultancy Schneider Electric said in a note.
"Updated weather outlooks continue to tilt bullish for demand, while record production continues to lean bearish for
supply."
Commodity Weather Group said a massive cold front of below-normal temperatures for the middle of next week through
the latter half of next week was strengthening, covering much of the Midwest and the South and reaching into the
Northeast.
In physical markets, natural gas for next-day delivery at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.78 a
million Btus, below Thursday's range of $3.00-$3.15. Natural gas for next-day delivery at the Transco Z6 hub in New
York last traded at $3.50 a million Btus, below Thursday's range of $14.50-$17.00.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 27, 2015 10:07 ET (15:07 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
022715 15:07 -- GMT
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natural gas
Friday, February 27, 2015
Natural Gas Technical Update - Bears Back In Control
An early drop lower under key support on Thursday by the April 15 natural gas contract at the mid-3.800 level was a harbinger than it might be a big down day for the market.
The support broken was the 10 and 40 day moving averages as well as a trend line on the intraday chart beginning at the 2.567 February low which had all converged between 2.840-2.850.
The market remained weak ahead of the weekly storage number but selling increased soon after release of the report. The April contract bottomed out at a 2.684 daily low settling at 2.697, down .165 or 5.7%.
The April contract has now lost .348 or 11.4% from Monday’s failed breakout over lower-3.000 resistance down to Thursday’s intraday low.
2.680-2.690 is the first area of support today followed by 2.567-2.575 weekly low support. A close under weekly support would be another bearish technical signal for the market.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Thursday, February 26, 2015
Natural Gas Corner - Market Review - Gut Shot To The Bulls Today In The Natural Gas Market
This week’s trade in the natural gas market must be one of
the most disappointing for the bulls during this current winter.
The arrival of another strong round of winter heating demand
expected across much of the U.S. rallied the spot April 15 contract over the
$3.000/MMBtu level in Monday’s early trade.
But the rally failed to hold as sellers pushed the market back lower by
Monday’s close.
In today’s session, the market was again under pressure
following release of the EIA weekly storage report which came with a 219 Bcf
draw, well below the pre-report average guesstimate of 241 Bcf and under the 226-257 Bcf range of estimates. By today's close, the market had fallen 5.7% on the day and is down 11% from Monday's high.
Weekly storage withdrawals continue to come in near the
lower end of pre-report estimates and have been largely bearish events
throughout this current winter. With 5
weeks to go in the withdrawal season, gas in storage at the end of this
winter should fall in near the 1,565 Bcf level for end of March storage over the past
10 year.
The one bullish factor, winter heating demand, is rapidly
leaving the natural gas market as it enters into the post-winter shoulder
season which could lead to a further drop in the spot market price possibly
back toward the lower-$2.000 level by the end of this upcoming summer.
Dow Jones Natural Gas - End of Day Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Slumps on Smaller-Than-Expected Storage Draw
By Timothy Puko and Nicole Friedman
Natural-gas prices sank to a two-week low Thursday after data showed weekly inventories fell far less than expected
last week.
U.S. natural-gas stockpiles fell by 219 billion cubic feet in the week ended Feb. 20, the U.S. Energy Information
Administration said Thursday. Analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a 241-bcf drawdown,
and the smallest forecast was for a 226-bcf draw.
Natural gas for April delivery plummeted immediately and settled down 16.5 cents, or 5.8%, at $2.697 a million
British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the largest percentage loss since Jan. 20 and the
lowest settlement since Feb. 10.
"The fact that (natural) gas could not move significantly higher ... despite record cold temps, tells me the thing is
going lower," said Tim Rudderow, president of Mount Lucas Management, who oversees $1.6 billion.
With the end of winter nearing, traders are essentially ignoring the strong demand and shrinking stockpiles, said
Frank Clements, co-owner of Meridian Energy Brokers Inc. outside New York.
Production grew for 11 straight months to end last year, and analysts expect growth to keep going in 2015. The
coldest winter in 30 years may simply have kept prices from falling faster, Mr. Clements said.
"You're not pulling as much gas out of storage as you would historically, with this cool weather," said Donald
Morton, senior vice president at Herbert J. Sims & Co. "Production's still strong."
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 26, 2015 14:49 ET (19:49 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
022615 19:49 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko and Nicole Friedman
Natural-gas prices sank to a two-week low Thursday after data showed weekly inventories fell far less than expected
last week.
U.S. natural-gas stockpiles fell by 219 billion cubic feet in the week ended Feb. 20, the U.S. Energy Information
Administration said Thursday. Analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a 241-bcf drawdown,
and the smallest forecast was for a 226-bcf draw.
Natural gas for April delivery plummeted immediately and settled down 16.5 cents, or 5.8%, at $2.697 a million
British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the largest percentage loss since Jan. 20 and the
lowest settlement since Feb. 10.
"The fact that (natural) gas could not move significantly higher ... despite record cold temps, tells me the thing is
going lower," said Tim Rudderow, president of Mount Lucas Management, who oversees $1.6 billion.
With the end of winter nearing, traders are essentially ignoring the strong demand and shrinking stockpiles, said
Frank Clements, co-owner of Meridian Energy Brokers Inc. outside New York.
Production grew for 11 straight months to end last year, and analysts expect growth to keep going in 2015. The
coldest winter in 30 years may simply have kept prices from falling faster, Mr. Clements said.
"You're not pulling as much gas out of storage as you would historically, with this cool weather," said Donald
Morton, senior vice president at Herbert J. Sims & Co. "Production's still strong."
Write to Nicole Friedman at nicole.friedman@wsj.com and Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 26, 2015 14:49 ET (19:49 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
022615 19:49 -- GMT
------
EIA Weekly Storage Report For Natural Gas - 219 Bcf Withdrawal - Bearish
For the week ended
Feb 20:
EIA Withdrawal - 219 BCF
Last Year's Draw - 117 BCF
5 Yr Avg Draw - 131 BCF
Range of Estimates - 226 BCF to 257 BCF
Avg Estimate - 241 BCF
EIA Withdrawal - 219 BCF
Last Year's Draw - 117 BCF
5 Yr Avg Draw - 131 BCF
Range of Estimates - 226 BCF to 257 BCF
Avg Estimate - 241 BCF
Dow Jones Natural Gas - Morning Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Falls on Strong Production
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas prices were falling Thursday as traders stayed focused on strong production, ignoring a late peak in
winter-related demand.
Natural gas for April delivery was recently down 4.8 cents, or 1.7%, at $2.841 a million British thermal units on
the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas is trading at its lowest point in a week despite demand peaking to its
highest point of the winter.
Half of U.S. homes use natural gas for heat, and February's severe cold is likely to create the largest draw from
stockpiles on record for a week in the second half of February, according to the weekly Wall Street Journal survey.
The average forecast of 20 analysts, brokers and traders is for a 241-billion-cubic-feet withdrawal from storage in
the week ended Feb. 20. The previous high for a week in the second half of February was a 176 draw for the week ended
Feb. 28, 2003.
But production grew for 11-straight months to end last year, and analysts expect growth to keep going in 2015. So
with the end of winter nearing, traders are essentially ignoring the strong demand and shrinking stockpiles, said Frank
Clements, co-owner of Meridian Energy Brokers Inc. outside New York.
"With the strong production, we're going to resume our downward trend," Mr. Clements said. "I think all the cold
weather did was delay us moving lower."
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $3.035/mmBtu, compared with
Wednesday's range of $3.165-$3.23. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 in New York traded in a bid-ask range of $15.50/mmBtu
to $25.00/mmBtu, compared with Wednesday's range of $20.00 to $25.00.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 26, 2015 09:54 ET (14:54 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
022615 14:54 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas prices were falling Thursday as traders stayed focused on strong production, ignoring a late peak in
winter-related demand.
Natural gas for April delivery was recently down 4.8 cents, or 1.7%, at $2.841 a million British thermal units on
the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas is trading at its lowest point in a week despite demand peaking to its
highest point of the winter.
Half of U.S. homes use natural gas for heat, and February's severe cold is likely to create the largest draw from
stockpiles on record for a week in the second half of February, according to the weekly Wall Street Journal survey.
The average forecast of 20 analysts, brokers and traders is for a 241-billion-cubic-feet withdrawal from storage in
the week ended Feb. 20. The previous high for a week in the second half of February was a 176 draw for the week ended
Feb. 28, 2003.
But production grew for 11-straight months to end last year, and analysts expect growth to keep going in 2015. So
with the end of winter nearing, traders are essentially ignoring the strong demand and shrinking stockpiles, said Frank
Clements, co-owner of Meridian Energy Brokers Inc. outside New York.
"With the strong production, we're going to resume our downward trend," Mr. Clements said. "I think all the cold
weather did was delay us moving lower."
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $3.035/mmBtu, compared with
Wednesday's range of $3.165-$3.23. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 in New York traded in a bid-ask range of $15.50/mmBtu
to $25.00/mmBtu, compared with Wednesday's range of $20.00 to $25.00.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 26, 2015 09:54 ET (14:54 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
022615 14:54 -- GMT
------
Natural Gas Technical Update - Key Support Broken Overnight
The new front month April 15 natural gas contract has broken under an important area of support near 3.840-3.850 in the overnight session.
The support areas broken are the 10 and 40 day moving average as well as a trend line drawn from the 2.589 February low. If the breakout holds today, the trend for the market will turn back down.
The next area of support under the current 2.801 low is 2.750-2.760. Longer term support is the 2.589 contract low which is just above 2.567-2.575 weekly chart support.
The 10 and 40 day moving averages between 2.840-2.850 now becomes the first area of upside resistance followed by 3.000-3.045 where the market stalled out earlier this week.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Wednesday, February 25, 2015
Big EIA Storage Withdrawal Expected In Tomorrow's EIA Report
DJ Analysts See Drop of 242 Billion Cubic Feet in U.S. Natural Gas Inventories
By Timothy Puko
Analysts and traders expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to show natural gas inventories shrank by
by 242 billion cubic feet, with the drop being 85% greater than the average decline for this time of year.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that storage levels fell by 242 billion cubic feet
of gas during the week ended Feb. 20, according to the average forecast of 19 analysts and brokers surveyed by The Wall
Street Journal.
The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data for the week on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EST.
For the Feb. 20 week, the median estimate is for a drop of 241 bcf. Estimates range from a decline of 230 bcf to a
decline of 257 bcf.
The estimate for Feb. 20 is more than the 117 bcf drained from storage for the same week last year and more than the
131-bcf five-year average drain for that week.
If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of Feb. 20 totaled 1.9 trillion cubic feet, 41% above levels from
a year ago and 2.7% below the five-year average for the same week.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 25, 2015 13:52 ET (18:52 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
022515 18:52 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
Analysts and traders expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to show natural gas inventories shrank by
by 242 billion cubic feet, with the drop being 85% greater than the average decline for this time of year.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that storage levels fell by 242 billion cubic feet
of gas during the week ended Feb. 20, according to the average forecast of 19 analysts and brokers surveyed by The Wall
Street Journal.
The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data for the week on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EST.
For the Feb. 20 week, the median estimate is for a drop of 241 bcf. Estimates range from a decline of 230 bcf to a
decline of 257 bcf.
The estimate for Feb. 20 is more than the 117 bcf drained from storage for the same week last year and more than the
131-bcf five-year average drain for that week.
If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of Feb. 20 totaled 1.9 trillion cubic feet, 41% above levels from
a year ago and 2.7% below the five-year average for the same week.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 25, 2015 13:52 ET (18:52 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
022515 18:52 -- GMT
------
Dow Jones - End of Day Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Prices Fall as Focus Moves to Spring Trading
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas prices fell Wednesday as traders began to focus on an oversupplied spring market.
Natural gas for March delivery settled down 0.8 cent, or 0.3%, at $2.894 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange. The March contract expired at the close of trading.
The more actively traded April contract settled down 2.7 cents, or 0.9%, at $2.862/mmBtu. Gains had been as high as
2% before prices started falling just after 11 a.m.
Below normal temperatures are going to cover at least the eastern half of the country into mid-March, weather
forecasters said. About half of U.S. homes use natural gas for heating, making cold weather one of the biggest drivers
for demand.
But the severe, 20-degrees-Fahrenheit-below-normal temperatures will pass after February ends, the forecasters said.
That put a cap on prices during what is still the coldest part of the year, Jim Ritterbusch, president of
energy-advisory firm Ritterbusch & Associates, said in a note to clients.
"This market is looking increasingly vulnerable to a selloff," he said. He expected prices to fall toward
$2.80/mmBtu.
Analysts and traders expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to show natural gas inventories shrank by
241 billion cubic feet. That would be the largest withdrawal on record for the second half of February, which is
usually past the peak of winter demand season.
The strong February demand caused both Simmons & Co. International and Macquarie Group Ltd. on Wednesday to lower
their estimates for the amount of natural gas in U.S. storage at the end of winter. They both expect about 1.4 trillion
cubic feet in storage, down from 1.7 tcf just weeks ago.
But that won't be enough to keep lifting prices, Macquarie said.
"While lower storage levels are supportive of the market in the near term, we still expect production growth to weigh
on market sentiment in the spring."
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex March $2.894 -0.8c
Nymex April $2.862 -2.7c
Nymex May $2.889 -2.7c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS SESSION
El Paso Perm $2.95-$3.07 $2.80-$2.87
El Paso SJ $2.95-$2.99 $2.81-$2.85
Henry Hub $3.165-$3.23 $3.08-$3.16
Katy $3.06-$3.16 $2.96-$3.05
SoCal $3.00-$3.11 $2.87-$2.96
Tex East M3 $18.00-$23.50 $8.75-$14.75
Transco 65 $3.17-$3.23 $3.1025-$3.145
Transco Z6 $20.00-$25.00 $13.00-$15.00
Waha $3.145-$3.20 $2.93-$2.97
--Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 25, 2015 15:19 ET (20:19 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
022515 20:19 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas prices fell Wednesday as traders began to focus on an oversupplied spring market.
Natural gas for March delivery settled down 0.8 cent, or 0.3%, at $2.894 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange. The March contract expired at the close of trading.
The more actively traded April contract settled down 2.7 cents, or 0.9%, at $2.862/mmBtu. Gains had been as high as
2% before prices started falling just after 11 a.m.
Below normal temperatures are going to cover at least the eastern half of the country into mid-March, weather
forecasters said. About half of U.S. homes use natural gas for heating, making cold weather one of the biggest drivers
for demand.
But the severe, 20-degrees-Fahrenheit-below-normal temperatures will pass after February ends, the forecasters said.
That put a cap on prices during what is still the coldest part of the year, Jim Ritterbusch, president of
energy-advisory firm Ritterbusch & Associates, said in a note to clients.
"This market is looking increasingly vulnerable to a selloff," he said. He expected prices to fall toward
$2.80/mmBtu.
Analysts and traders expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to show natural gas inventories shrank by
241 billion cubic feet. That would be the largest withdrawal on record for the second half of February, which is
usually past the peak of winter demand season.
The strong February demand caused both Simmons & Co. International and Macquarie Group Ltd. on Wednesday to lower
their estimates for the amount of natural gas in U.S. storage at the end of winter. They both expect about 1.4 trillion
cubic feet in storage, down from 1.7 tcf just weeks ago.
But that won't be enough to keep lifting prices, Macquarie said.
"While lower storage levels are supportive of the market in the near term, we still expect production growth to weigh
on market sentiment in the spring."
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex March $2.894 -0.8c
Nymex April $2.862 -2.7c
Nymex May $2.889 -2.7c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS SESSION
El Paso Perm $2.95-$3.07 $2.80-$2.87
El Paso SJ $2.95-$2.99 $2.81-$2.85
Henry Hub $3.165-$3.23 $3.08-$3.16
Katy $3.06-$3.16 $2.96-$3.05
SoCal $3.00-$3.11 $2.87-$2.96
Tex East M3 $18.00-$23.50 $8.75-$14.75
Transco 65 $3.17-$3.23 $3.1025-$3.145
Transco Z6 $20.00-$25.00 $13.00-$15.00
Waha $3.145-$3.20 $2.93-$2.97
--Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 25, 2015 15:19 ET (20:19 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
022515 20:19 -- GMT
------
Dow Jones Natural Gas - Daily Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Prices Rise With Cold Likely to Linger Into March
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas prices are inching up as colder-than-normal forecasts linger into March, suggesting strong demand into
next month.
Natural gas for March delivery is up 4.6 cents, or 1.6%, at $2.948 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. The more actively traded April contract is up 3.7 cents, or 1.3%, at $2.926/mmBtu. March options
expired yesterday and the futures contract expires at today's close.
Below normal temperatures are going to cover at least the eastern half of the country into mid-March, weather
forecasters said. About half of U.S. homes use natural gas for heat, making cold weather one of the biggest drivers for
demand.
But the severe, 20-degrees-Fahrenheit-below normal temperatures will pass after February ends, the forecasters said.
That is limiting gains during what is still the coldest part of the year, Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy-advisory
firm Ritterbusch & Associates, said in a note to clients.
"This market is looking increasingly vulnerable to a selloff," he said.
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $3.23/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday's
range of $3.08-$3.16. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York traded in a bid-ask range of $12.00/mmBtu to
$35.00/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday's range of $13.00 to $15.00.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 25, 2015 09:28 ET (14:28 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
022515 14:28 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas prices are inching up as colder-than-normal forecasts linger into March, suggesting strong demand into
next month.
Natural gas for March delivery is up 4.6 cents, or 1.6%, at $2.948 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. The more actively traded April contract is up 3.7 cents, or 1.3%, at $2.926/mmBtu. March options
expired yesterday and the futures contract expires at today's close.
Below normal temperatures are going to cover at least the eastern half of the country into mid-March, weather
forecasters said. About half of U.S. homes use natural gas for heat, making cold weather one of the biggest drivers for
demand.
But the severe, 20-degrees-Fahrenheit-below normal temperatures will pass after February ends, the forecasters said.
That is limiting gains during what is still the coldest part of the year, Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy-advisory
firm Ritterbusch & Associates, said in a note to clients.
"This market is looking increasingly vulnerable to a selloff," he said.
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $3.23/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday's
range of $3.08-$3.16. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York traded in a bid-ask range of $12.00/mmBtu to
$35.00/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday's range of $13.00 to $15.00.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 25, 2015 09:28 ET (14:28 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
022515 14:28 -- GMT
------
Natural Gas Technical Update - Key Support Area Holds On Tuesday
The natural gas market was able to move back higher on Tuesday after the March 15 contract held above key support at the lower-3.800 level on early weakness.
After bottoming out at a 3.827 morning low, the March contract rallied higher to close at 2.902, up .023.
By holding above lower-2.800 support on Tuesday, the trend for the market remains sideways to higher. Yesterday’s 2.972 high extending up to the 3.039 high set on Monday is primary resistance.
Longer term resistance is between 3.180-3.200 and the 3.299 mid-January high.
2.820-2.830 which includes the 10 day moving average is key support as a close under this area will turn the near term trend back down. Following support levels are the 2.567-2.575 weekly lows reached two weeks ago.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Natural Gas Corner - Market Review - Rallies Continue To Be Well Sold
An early rally on Monday had the March 15 natural gas
contract higher by nearly 20% from the 2-year low set two weeks ago topping out
just above the $3.000/MMBtu level in morning trade.
But as has been the case in the natural gas market since
last topping in November, the rally was sold back lower by the close erasing
roughly half of last week’s gains.
Weather-related demand for natural gas has been very high
over the past 10 days with the next two EIA weekly storage draws expected to average
200+ Bcf.
The key test for the market will be price action once winter
heating demand eases in upcoming weeks.
Dow Jones Natural Gas - End of Day Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Makes Small Gains on Cold Weather Forecasts
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas made small gains for March delivery as cold weather forecasts raised expectations for late-winter heating
demand.
The front-month March contract settled up 2.3 cents, or 0.8%, at $2.902 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange. The more actively traded April contract settled down 0.4 cent, or 0.1%, at $2.889/mmBtu.
March options expired at close and the futures contract expires at Wednesday's close.
Weather forecasts are showing patches of extreme cold for the rest of the month, and most of the country still
feeling far-below-normal temperatures through the first week of March. Half of U.S. homes use natural gas for heat, so
the cold is raising expectations for the demand.
However, prices for the year are still likely to stay anchored at around $3/mmBtu, and could even drop in the short
term, Morgan Stanley said in a note Tuesday. Stockpiles, which recently surpassed their five-year average levels, are
just too healthy for traders to strongly bid up prices, analysts said.
"The market would tend to want to take this thing lower, but the market's been saved...by the relative strength in
the weather forecast," said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. "I don't think
the market is capable of blasting its way to $3.50 even with the weather on our hands."
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 24, 2015 14:52 ET (19:52 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
022415 19:52 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas made small gains for March delivery as cold weather forecasts raised expectations for late-winter heating
demand.
The front-month March contract settled up 2.3 cents, or 0.8%, at $2.902 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange. The more actively traded April contract settled down 0.4 cent, or 0.1%, at $2.889/mmBtu.
March options expired at close and the futures contract expires at Wednesday's close.
Weather forecasts are showing patches of extreme cold for the rest of the month, and most of the country still
feeling far-below-normal temperatures through the first week of March. Half of U.S. homes use natural gas for heat, so
the cold is raising expectations for the demand.
However, prices for the year are still likely to stay anchored at around $3/mmBtu, and could even drop in the short
term, Morgan Stanley said in a note Tuesday. Stockpiles, which recently surpassed their five-year average levels, are
just too healthy for traders to strongly bid up prices, analysts said.
"The market would tend to want to take this thing lower, but the market's been saved...by the relative strength in
the weather forecast," said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. "I don't think
the market is capable of blasting its way to $3.50 even with the weather on our hands."
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 24, 2015 14:52 ET (19:52 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
022415 19:52 -- GMT
------
Dow Jones Natural Gas - Morning Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Holds Steady on Cold Weather Forecasts
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas prices are holding near unchanged as cold forecasts stretch into March, raising expectations for winter
heating demand and supporting a well-supplied market.
Natural gas for March delivery is down 0.7 cent, or 0.2%, at $2.872 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. The more actively traded April contract is up 0.8 cent, or 0.3%, at $2.885/mmBtu. March options
expire at close and the futures contract expires at Wednesday's close.
Weather forecasts are showing patches of extreme cold for the rest of the month, and most of the country still
feeling far-below-normal temperatures through the first week of March. Half of U.S. homes use natural gas for heat, so
the cold is raising expectations for the demand.
However, prices for the year are still likely to stay anchored at around $3/mmBtu, and could even drop in the short
term, Morgan Stanley said in a note Tuesday. Stockpiles, which recently surpassed their five-year average levels, are
just too healthy for traders to strongly bid up prices, analysts said.
"The market would tend to want to take this thing lower, but the market's been saved...by the relative strength in
the weather forecast," said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. "I don't think
the market is capable of blasting its way to $3.50 even with the weather on our hands."
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $3.14/mmBtu, compared with Monday's
range of $3.15-$3.25. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York traded in a bid-ask range of $10.25-$19.00/mmBtu,
compared with Monday's range of $22.00 to $28.00.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 24, 2015 09:33 ET (14:33 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
022415 14:33 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas prices are holding near unchanged as cold forecasts stretch into March, raising expectations for winter
heating demand and supporting a well-supplied market.
Natural gas for March delivery is down 0.7 cent, or 0.2%, at $2.872 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. The more actively traded April contract is up 0.8 cent, or 0.3%, at $2.885/mmBtu. March options
expire at close and the futures contract expires at Wednesday's close.
Weather forecasts are showing patches of extreme cold for the rest of the month, and most of the country still
feeling far-below-normal temperatures through the first week of March. Half of U.S. homes use natural gas for heat, so
the cold is raising expectations for the demand.
However, prices for the year are still likely to stay anchored at around $3/mmBtu, and could even drop in the short
term, Morgan Stanley said in a note Tuesday. Stockpiles, which recently surpassed their five-year average levels, are
just too healthy for traders to strongly bid up prices, analysts said.
"The market would tend to want to take this thing lower, but the market's been saved...by the relative strength in
the weather forecast," said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. "I don't think
the market is capable of blasting its way to $3.50 even with the weather on our hands."
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $3.14/mmBtu, compared with Monday's
range of $3.15-$3.25. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York traded in a bid-ask range of $10.25-$19.00/mmBtu,
compared with Monday's range of $22.00 to $28.00.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 24, 2015 09:33 ET (14:33 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
022415 14:33 -- GMT
------
Natural Gas Technical Update - Rally Failure On Monday
Last Friday’s breakout by the March 15 natural gas contract above 40 day moving average resistance failed to hold on Monday as the market ran into a wall of selling at the lower-3.000 level.
The March contract at one point was trading up nearly .090 topping out at a 3.039 early-morning high. Selling into the close dropped the contract to a 2.879 daily settle, down .072 (2.4%) for the day, and closing well below the intraday high.
Even with yesterday’s sell off, the March contract remains above 2.800-2.810 support which needs to be broken to turn the near term trend back lower.
If 2.800-2.810 support which includes the 10 day moving average is broken, 2.690-2.700 and 2.640-2.650 will become the next downside support levels. Longer term support are weekly lows between 2.567-2.575 reached two weeks ago.
2.880-2.900 is the first area of resistance today followed by 2.980 extending up to yesterday’s 3.039 high.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Monday, February 23, 2015
Dow Jones Natural Gas - End Of Day Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Slips as Supplies Remain Ample
(Adds tables at bottom.)
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas futures declined Monday as traders weighed the currently oversupplied market against
expectations that frigid weather has boosted demand for the heating fuel.
March futures fell 7.2 cents, or 2.4%, to settle at $2.879 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile
Exchange. Prices rose as high as $3.039/mmBtu in overnight trading.
About half of U.S. households use natural gas as their primary heating fuel, and cold weather can cause price spikes
as utilities and other buyers compete for supplies. This winter, robust production and moderate temperatures have kept
prices subdued.
Unusually cold weather settling in across the Midwest and East Coast in recent weeks has boosted prices somewhat.
Weather forecasts released Monday showed a colder outlook for the next six to 10 days, and below-normal temperatures
are expected to persist in the next 11 to 15 days, said Gaithersburg, Md.-based forecaster MDA Weather Services.
However, "there is still plenty of gas in the system," said Martin King, analyst at FirstEnergy Capital Corp., in a
note. "Despite the cold now, the market is already looking to the spring when the Northeast will again be overflowing
with gas."
Traders are waiting on weekly inventory data, which is released every Thursday by the U.S. Energy Information
Administration, for indications of how elevated demand for natural gas has eaten away at stockpiles of the fuel.
As of Feb. 13, natural-gas inventories stood at 2.157 trillion cubic feet, 2.8% above the five-year average for the
week.
Despite current low temperatures, "the seasonal warming trend will still mean smaller declines week by week, with the
traditional withdrawal season drawing to a close at the end of March," said Tim Evans, analyst at Citi Futures, in a
note.
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex March $2.879 -7.2c
Nymex April $2.893 -7.9c
Nymex May $2.924 -7.9c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS SESSION
El Paso Perm $2.90-$3.13 $2.77-$2.84
El Paso SJ $2.90-$3.12 $2.765-$2.81
Henry Hub $3.15-$3.25 $2.94-$3.13
Katy $3.08-$3.235 $2.85-$2.95
SoCal $3.02-$3.08 $2.87-$2.94
Tex East M3 $16.50-$19.30 $10.00-$14.25
Transco 65 $3.17-$3.25 $3.0475-$3.12
Transco Z6 $22.00-$28.00 $17.00-$21.00
Waha $3.05-$3.155 $2.87-$2.90
Write to Nicole Friedman at nicole.friedman@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 23, 2015 16:14 ET (21:14 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
022315 21:14 -- GMT
------
(Adds tables at bottom.)
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas futures declined Monday as traders weighed the currently oversupplied market against
expectations that frigid weather has boosted demand for the heating fuel.
March futures fell 7.2 cents, or 2.4%, to settle at $2.879 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile
Exchange. Prices rose as high as $3.039/mmBtu in overnight trading.
About half of U.S. households use natural gas as their primary heating fuel, and cold weather can cause price spikes
as utilities and other buyers compete for supplies. This winter, robust production and moderate temperatures have kept
prices subdued.
Unusually cold weather settling in across the Midwest and East Coast in recent weeks has boosted prices somewhat.
Weather forecasts released Monday showed a colder outlook for the next six to 10 days, and below-normal temperatures
are expected to persist in the next 11 to 15 days, said Gaithersburg, Md.-based forecaster MDA Weather Services.
However, "there is still plenty of gas in the system," said Martin King, analyst at FirstEnergy Capital Corp., in a
note. "Despite the cold now, the market is already looking to the spring when the Northeast will again be overflowing
with gas."
Traders are waiting on weekly inventory data, which is released every Thursday by the U.S. Energy Information
Administration, for indications of how elevated demand for natural gas has eaten away at stockpiles of the fuel.
As of Feb. 13, natural-gas inventories stood at 2.157 trillion cubic feet, 2.8% above the five-year average for the
week.
Despite current low temperatures, "the seasonal warming trend will still mean smaller declines week by week, with the
traditional withdrawal season drawing to a close at the end of March," said Tim Evans, analyst at Citi Futures, in a
note.
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex March $2.879 -7.2c
Nymex April $2.893 -7.9c
Nymex May $2.924 -7.9c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS SESSION
El Paso Perm $2.90-$3.13 $2.77-$2.84
El Paso SJ $2.90-$3.12 $2.765-$2.81
Henry Hub $3.15-$3.25 $2.94-$3.13
Katy $3.08-$3.235 $2.85-$2.95
SoCal $3.02-$3.08 $2.87-$2.94
Tex East M3 $16.50-$19.30 $10.00-$14.25
Transco 65 $3.17-$3.25 $3.0475-$3.12
Transco Z6 $22.00-$28.00 $17.00-$21.00
Waha $3.05-$3.155 $2.87-$2.90
Write to Nicole Friedman at nicole.friedman@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 23, 2015 16:14 ET (21:14 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
022315 21:14 -- GMT
------
Dow Jones Natural Gas - Morning Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Gains on Cold Weather Outlook
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas futures rose Monday on expectations that frigid temperatures in the eastern U.S. have boosted
demand for the heating fuel.
March futures recently traded up 3.5 cents, or 1.2%, at $2.986 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. Prices rose as high as $3.039/mmBtu in overnight trading.
About half of U.S. households use natural gas as their primary heating fuel, and cold weather can cause price spikes
as utilities and other buyers compete for supplies. This winter, robust production and moderate temperatures have kept
prices subdued.
However, with unusually cold weather settling in across the Midwest and East Coast in recent weeks, "the market might
be resetting the price range for natural gas based on a colder-than-anticipated finish to the season," said Teri
Viswanath, director of commodity strategy for natural gas at BNP Paribas SA, in a note.
Weather forecasts released Monday showed a colder outlook for the next six to 10 days, and below-normal temperatures
are expected to persist in the next 11 to 15 days, said Gaithersburg, Md.-based forecaster MDA Weather Services.
Traders are looking ahead to weekly inventory data, which is released every Thursday by the U.S. Energy Information
Administration, for indications of how elevated demand for natural gas ate away at stockpiles of the fuel.
"The market is being forced to price in at least two huge storage withdrawals to be reported this Thursday and next,"
energy-advisory firm Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note.
As of Feb. 13, natural-gas inventories stood at 2.157 trillion cubic feet, 2.8% above the five-year average for the
week.
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $3.20/mmBtu, compared with Friday's
average of $2.9899.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 23, 2015 09:19 ET (14:19 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
022315 14:19 -- GMT
------
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas futures rose Monday on expectations that frigid temperatures in the eastern U.S. have boosted
demand for the heating fuel.
March futures recently traded up 3.5 cents, or 1.2%, at $2.986 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. Prices rose as high as $3.039/mmBtu in overnight trading.
About half of U.S. households use natural gas as their primary heating fuel, and cold weather can cause price spikes
as utilities and other buyers compete for supplies. This winter, robust production and moderate temperatures have kept
prices subdued.
However, with unusually cold weather settling in across the Midwest and East Coast in recent weeks, "the market might
be resetting the price range for natural gas based on a colder-than-anticipated finish to the season," said Teri
Viswanath, director of commodity strategy for natural gas at BNP Paribas SA, in a note.
Weather forecasts released Monday showed a colder outlook for the next six to 10 days, and below-normal temperatures
are expected to persist in the next 11 to 15 days, said Gaithersburg, Md.-based forecaster MDA Weather Services.
Traders are looking ahead to weekly inventory data, which is released every Thursday by the U.S. Energy Information
Administration, for indications of how elevated demand for natural gas ate away at stockpiles of the fuel.
"The market is being forced to price in at least two huge storage withdrawals to be reported this Thursday and next,"
energy-advisory firm Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note.
As of Feb. 13, natural-gas inventories stood at 2.157 trillion cubic feet, 2.8% above the five-year average for the
week.
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $3.20/mmBtu, compared with Friday's
average of $2.9899.
Write to Nicole Friedman at nicole.friedman@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 23, 2015 09:19 ET (14:19 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
022315 14:19 -- GMT
------
Natural Gas Technical Update - Bullish Breakout In Last Friday's Session
Last week was technically important for the natural gas market as the March 15 contract broke out above a key resistance area.
This resistance was the 40 day moving average over the which the March contract hasn’t trade since last November when the market was topping out at a winter high.
The March contract rallied over this average at 2.870 today in Friday’s early trade remaining well bid into the close settling at 2.951. For the week, the March contract gained .147 or 5.2%.
Friday’s breakout above the 40 day average turns the primary market trend sideways to higher. The 40 day moving average now becomes the first area of support today at 2.870 followed by the 10 day moving average at 2.795.
The lower-3.000 level is primary resistance today with a 3.039 overnight high. Longer term resistance is at 3.130-3.150 and the 3.299 mid-January high.
Friday’s Commitment of Trader’s report showed the funds long 90,392 futures contracts in the natural gas market, up 14,312 or 19% from the previous week.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment - Neutral
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish
Fund Speculative Long Position In Natural Gas Increases By Nearly 20%
Last Friday's Commitment of Trader's report showed renewed fund buying in the natural gas market.
The speculative long futures position held by the funds is currently 90,392 contracts according to the report, up 14,312 or 19% from the previous week.
The funds were long a record high 488,902 contracts last February at this time. The market was also trading above the $6.000/MMBtu level.
The speculative long futures position held by the funds is currently 90,392 contracts according to the report, up 14,312 or 19% from the previous week.
The funds were long a record high 488,902 contracts last February at this time. The market was also trading above the $6.000/MMBtu level.
Friday, February 20, 2015
Natural Gas Technical Update - Bullish Breakout In Overnight Trade
The March 15 natural gas contract has rallied back higher in the overnight session and is currently trading above the 40 day moving average for the first time since last November.
Overnight strength follows a choppy session on Thursday during which the March contract traded in a .113 daily range but finished the day nearly unchanged settling at 2.834, up 3 ticks.
If the breakout above the 40 day moving average at 2.875 holds, the near term trend will turn sideways to higher with 2.980-3.020 becoming the next upside resistance.
The 40 day average at 2.875 now becomes the first area of support following by the 10 day moving average at 2.750. A drop back under both averages is needed to turn the trend back down.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Thursday, February 19, 2015
Natural Gas Corner - Market Review - Bullish Weather and Storage News Fails To Boost Prices
An early bounce in the natural gas market this morning again stalled under key resistance basis the March 15 contract at the lower-2.900 level. As resistance held, the market moved back toward unchanged ahead of the weekly EIA storage report.
Today’s 111 Bcf storage withdrawal came in 3 Bcf above the average pre-report estimate briefly spiking the market in minutes following the report. But by day’s end, the market traded back toward unchanged.
The inability for natural gas prices to extend recent gains with some of the coldest temperatures in decades reaching the U.S. is not a particularly bullish signal. It makes one wonder what prices might do once the forecasts do moderate and the market enters into the post-winter shoulder season?
With production now running 13.5% above the 2014 level, the market is looking at the possibility for a record amount of gas to be put in storage by the end of the year.
Key technical support held today and the market fell lower in the face of bullish news. If the March contract falls below 2.567-2.575 weekly low support, the next longer term support doesn’t come into play until the 2.170-2.230 level.
The next few sessions should be quite interesting to watch in the natural gas market.
Today’s 111 Bcf storage withdrawal came in 3 Bcf above the average pre-report estimate briefly spiking the market in minutes following the report. But by day’s end, the market traded back toward unchanged.
The inability for natural gas prices to extend recent gains with some of the coldest temperatures in decades reaching the U.S. is not a particularly bullish signal. It makes one wonder what prices might do once the forecasts do moderate and the market enters into the post-winter shoulder season?
With production now running 13.5% above the 2014 level, the market is looking at the possibility for a record amount of gas to be put in storage by the end of the year.
Key technical support held today and the market fell lower in the face of bullish news. If the March contract falls below 2.567-2.575 weekly low support, the next longer term support doesn’t come into play until the 2.170-2.230 level.
The next few sessions should be quite interesting to watch in the natural gas market.
Dow Jones Natural Gas - End of Day Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Makes Some Gains on Larger-than-Expected Stockpile Drain
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas futures rose slightly Thursday after data showed a larger-than-expected draw from stockpiles.
The front-month March contract settled up 0.3 cents, or 0.1%, at $2.834 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange. It set a fresh three-week high, adding to gains on Wednesday that set the highest closing
price since Jan. 28.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday said storage levels fell by 111 billion cubic feet in the week
ended Feb. 13. That is 3 bcf more than the 108-bcf consensus average of 17 forecasters surveyed by The Wall Street
Journal.
The EIA update is widely considered one of the best measures of supply and demand, and this draw would indicate lower
supply or larger demand than expected. In the minute after the data, prices rose 0.9% to $2.856 a million British
thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
A larger-than-expected drain on stockpiles combined with the type of severe cold currently blanketing half of the
country, would often drive prices even higher based on increasing demand for the heating fuel. But traders feel that
there is too little winter remaining to absorb a record amount of supply that has shown few signs of slowing down,
analysts have said.
That limited gains Thursday and even caused prices to fall throughout large parts of morning trading, said John
Woods, president of JJ Woods Associates and a Nymex trader.
"Any type of weather that's going to manipulate this market is going to be short lived," Mr. Woods said. "We're going
to be stuck in this type of range until probably the spring."
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex March $2.834 0.3c
Nymex April $2.875 1.8c
Nymex May $2.913 2c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS SESSION
El Paso Perm $2.55-$2.66 $2.535-$2.59
El Paso SJ $2.645-$2.625 $2.5625-$2.59
Henry Hub $2.925-$3.00 $2.89-$2.99
Katy $2.695-$2.73 $2.67-$2.74
SoCal $2.73-$2.78 $2.66-$2.695
Tex East M3 $13.00-$16.50 $19.00-$23.50
Transco 65 $2.89-$3.00 $2.91-$2.9325
Transco Z6 $17.00-$35.00 $27.00-$50.00
Waha $2.65-$2.70 $2.545-$2.57
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 19, 2015 15:09 ET (20:09 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
021915 20:09 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas futures rose slightly Thursday after data showed a larger-than-expected draw from stockpiles.
The front-month March contract settled up 0.3 cents, or 0.1%, at $2.834 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange. It set a fresh three-week high, adding to gains on Wednesday that set the highest closing
price since Jan. 28.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday said storage levels fell by 111 billion cubic feet in the week
ended Feb. 13. That is 3 bcf more than the 108-bcf consensus average of 17 forecasters surveyed by The Wall Street
Journal.
The EIA update is widely considered one of the best measures of supply and demand, and this draw would indicate lower
supply or larger demand than expected. In the minute after the data, prices rose 0.9% to $2.856 a million British
thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
A larger-than-expected drain on stockpiles combined with the type of severe cold currently blanketing half of the
country, would often drive prices even higher based on increasing demand for the heating fuel. But traders feel that
there is too little winter remaining to absorb a record amount of supply that has shown few signs of slowing down,
analysts have said.
That limited gains Thursday and even caused prices to fall throughout large parts of morning trading, said John
Woods, president of JJ Woods Associates and a Nymex trader.
"Any type of weather that's going to manipulate this market is going to be short lived," Mr. Woods said. "We're going
to be stuck in this type of range until probably the spring."
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex March $2.834 0.3c
Nymex April $2.875 1.8c
Nymex May $2.913 2c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS SESSION
El Paso Perm $2.55-$2.66 $2.535-$2.59
El Paso SJ $2.645-$2.625 $2.5625-$2.59
Henry Hub $2.925-$3.00 $2.89-$2.99
Katy $2.695-$2.73 $2.67-$2.74
SoCal $2.73-$2.78 $2.66-$2.695
Tex East M3 $13.00-$16.50 $19.00-$23.50
Transco 65 $2.89-$3.00 $2.91-$2.9325
Transco Z6 $17.00-$35.00 $27.00-$50.00
Waha $2.65-$2.70 $2.545-$2.57
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 19, 2015 15:09 ET (20:09 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
021915 20:09 -- GMT
------
EIA Weekly Storage Report - 111 Bcf Withdrawal - Slightly Above Pre-Report Estimates
For the week ended
Feb 13:
EIA Withdrawal - 111 BCF
Last Year's Draw - 247 BCF
5 Yr Avg Draw - 180 BCF
Range of Estimates - 96 BCF to 116 BCF
Avg Estimate - 108 BCF
EIA Withdrawal - 111 BCF
Last Year's Draw - 247 BCF
5 Yr Avg Draw - 180 BCF
Range of Estimates - 96 BCF to 116 BCF
Avg Estimate - 108 BCF
Natural Gas Technical Update - Market Nearing "Breakout" Resistance
Since bottoming at a 2.567 contract low on February 6th, the March 15 natural gas contract has been moving steadily higher and is poised to test “breakout” resistance pin today’s trade.
The March 15 contract reversed course in Wednesday’s session rallying back higher from 10 day moving average support to close at 2.831, up .072.
Buying has continued in today’s early trade moving the March toward a key resistance area that begins at the 40 day moving average at 2.880 and extends up to 2.910.
A breakout above this resistance would be the first time the March contract has traded above the 40 day average since last November. It could also indicate a seasonal low has been set with 2.980-3.020 becoming the next upside resistance.
If resistance holds, the 10 day moving average which has been primary support over the past 4 sessions will be the first area of support at 2.720. A close under the 10 day moving average would turn the near term trend back down with the 2.656 weekly low becoming the next support followed by the 2.567 contract low.
Bottom line – A key technical test for the natural gas market today. Failure to breakout above 2.880-2.910 resistance could lead to a quick sell off back lower.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Wednesday, February 18, 2015
Natural Gas Corner - Monthly Review
Natural gas prices fell to the a $2.567/MMBtu spot price low the first week of February 2015, the lowest spot price level the market has traded at since June 2012. Record high domestic production overshadowed higher storage withdrawals keeping prices under pressure.
There has been an increase in winter heating demand for natural gas with January 2015 demand of 99.6 Bcf (billion cubic feet) being the second largest over the past 10 years. January demand was 4 Bcf per day below January 2014 demand but 6 Bcf per day above the 5-year average.
February has also proven to be colder than normal with several winter snow events across the Northeastern U.S. with weather across the region being labeled the worst in two decades. Storage withdrawals during the last two weeks of February could be historically high if upcoming forecasts for below-normal temperatures are correct.
Even with the recent increase in winter heating demand for natural gas, current stocks of 2,268 Bcf are 542 Bcf or 31.4% above last year’s level and 9 Bcf or .5% below the 5-year average. With 7 weeks to go in the current withdrawal season, end of March stocks in 2015 will likely fall near the 10-year average of 1,565 Bcf. In 2014, stocks are the end of March reached an 11-year low of 822 Bcf.
Domestic production of natural gas which reached a record high of 77.3 Bcf in November 2014 according to Bentek and the EIA is expected to continue to increase in 2015 . Marketed production which averaged 74.3 Bcf per day in 2014 is forecast to increase to 77.2 Bcf per day in 2015, an increase of 2.8 Bcf per day or 3.7%.
Helping to offset the rise in production is an expected rise in consumption particularly from the power sector which should use more natural gas this summer over last. Spot prices which last summer were trading over $4.000/MMBtu have declined by 40-50% making natural gas much more competitive with coal for power generation.
Power sector demand is forecast by the EIA to rise by 2.6% in comparison to 2014 to 24.1 Bcf per day. Industrial demand is also forecast to increase by 5.6% with a slightly drop expected in residential and commercial demand.
With natural gas prices falling to a 2+ year low in early-February, many of the bearish factors including high storage and production could already have been factored into the market price. If weather-related demand in upcoming weeks remains high, the trend for the market could reverse back higher.
Seasonally, the shoulder months of March or April tend to be the time when the post-winter seasonal low is set. Once the market does bottom, a sideways to higher trend into the summer months of 2015 is expected.
There has been an increase in winter heating demand for natural gas with January 2015 demand of 99.6 Bcf (billion cubic feet) being the second largest over the past 10 years. January demand was 4 Bcf per day below January 2014 demand but 6 Bcf per day above the 5-year average.
February has also proven to be colder than normal with several winter snow events across the Northeastern U.S. with weather across the region being labeled the worst in two decades. Storage withdrawals during the last two weeks of February could be historically high if upcoming forecasts for below-normal temperatures are correct.
Even with the recent increase in winter heating demand for natural gas, current stocks of 2,268 Bcf are 542 Bcf or 31.4% above last year’s level and 9 Bcf or .5% below the 5-year average. With 7 weeks to go in the current withdrawal season, end of March stocks in 2015 will likely fall near the 10-year average of 1,565 Bcf. In 2014, stocks are the end of March reached an 11-year low of 822 Bcf.
Domestic production of natural gas which reached a record high of 77.3 Bcf in November 2014 according to Bentek and the EIA is expected to continue to increase in 2015 . Marketed production which averaged 74.3 Bcf per day in 2014 is forecast to increase to 77.2 Bcf per day in 2015, an increase of 2.8 Bcf per day or 3.7%.
Helping to offset the rise in production is an expected rise in consumption particularly from the power sector which should use more natural gas this summer over last. Spot prices which last summer were trading over $4.000/MMBtu have declined by 40-50% making natural gas much more competitive with coal for power generation.
Power sector demand is forecast by the EIA to rise by 2.6% in comparison to 2014 to 24.1 Bcf per day. Industrial demand is also forecast to increase by 5.6% with a slightly drop expected in residential and commercial demand.
With natural gas prices falling to a 2+ year low in early-February, many of the bearish factors including high storage and production could already have been factored into the market price. If weather-related demand in upcoming weeks remains high, the trend for the market could reverse back higher.
Seasonally, the shoulder months of March or April tend to be the time when the post-winter seasonal low is set. Once the market does bottom, a sideways to higher trend into the summer months of 2015 is expected.
Dow Jones Natural Gas - End of Day Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Rallies on Lengthy Cold Spell
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas prices rallied Wednesday afternoon on weather forecasts showing solid cold over most of the country
through the end of February.
The front-month March contract settled up 7.2 cents, or 2.6%, at $2.831 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange. Prices barely moved before noon and then made steady gains.
Noon weather updates added to confidence about a severe cold snap lingering over most of the country. About half of
U.S. homes use natural gas for heat, making cold weather a top driver for demand.
Below-normal temperatures are going to cover most of the country through the first week of March, Commodity Weather
Group said. Temperatures more than 15-degrees-Fahrenheit-below normal are likely to linger from St. Louis to Buffalo
until the end of February. Similar cold in New York this week has already pushed spot prices as high as $50/mmBtu on
Wednesday.
"There is nothing through (Feb. 28 contradicting) the missive of cold dominating the U.S. from the Plains eastward,"
WeatherBELL Analytics LLC said in its noon note to clients.
Analysts, brokers and traders are expecting that gas inventories last week shrunk by 40% less than they usually do
for this time of year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has its weekly storage update scheduled for Thursday
at 10:30 a.m., and it is likely to report that storage levels fell by 108 billion cubic feet during the week ended Feb.
13, according to the average forecast of 17 analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. The average draw
on storage for that week of the year is 180 bcf.
A 108-bcf addition would put stockpiles at 2.2 trillion cubic feet, 46% above levels from a year ago and 2.9% above
the five-year average for the same week.
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 18, 2015 15:04 ET (20:04 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
021815 20:04 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas prices rallied Wednesday afternoon on weather forecasts showing solid cold over most of the country
through the end of February.
The front-month March contract settled up 7.2 cents, or 2.6%, at $2.831 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange. Prices barely moved before noon and then made steady gains.
Noon weather updates added to confidence about a severe cold snap lingering over most of the country. About half of
U.S. homes use natural gas for heat, making cold weather a top driver for demand.
Below-normal temperatures are going to cover most of the country through the first week of March, Commodity Weather
Group said. Temperatures more than 15-degrees-Fahrenheit-below normal are likely to linger from St. Louis to Buffalo
until the end of February. Similar cold in New York this week has already pushed spot prices as high as $50/mmBtu on
Wednesday.
"There is nothing through (Feb. 28 contradicting) the missive of cold dominating the U.S. from the Plains eastward,"
WeatherBELL Analytics LLC said in its noon note to clients.
Analysts, brokers and traders are expecting that gas inventories last week shrunk by 40% less than they usually do
for this time of year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has its weekly storage update scheduled for Thursday
at 10:30 a.m., and it is likely to report that storage levels fell by 108 billion cubic feet during the week ended Feb.
13, according to the average forecast of 17 analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. The average draw
on storage for that week of the year is 180 bcf.
A 108-bcf addition would put stockpiles at 2.2 trillion cubic feet, 46% above levels from a year ago and 2.9% above
the five-year average for the same week.
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 18, 2015 15:04 ET (20:04 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
021815 20:04 -- GMT
------
Dow Jones Natural Gas - Analysts' Estimates For Tomorrow's EIA Storage Report
DJ Analysts See 108-Billion-Cubic-Feet Drop in U.S. Natural Gas Inventories
By Timothy Puko
Analysts, brokers and traders expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to show natural gas inventories
shrunk by 40% less than their average decline for this time of year.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that storage levels fell by 108 billion cubic feet
of gas during the week ended Feb. 13, according to the average forecast of 17 analysts, brokers and traders surveyed by
The Wall Street Journal.
The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data for the week on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EST.
For the Feb. 13 week, the median estimate is for a drop of 110 bcf. Estimates range from a decline of 96 bcf to a
decline of 116 bcf.
The estimate for Feb. 13 is less than the 247 bcf drained from storage for the same week last year and less than the
180-bcf five-year average drain for that week.
If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of Feb. 13 totaled 2.2 trillion cubic feet, 46% above levels from
a year ago and 2.9% above the five-year average for the same week.
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 18, 2015 14:43 ET (19:43 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
021815 19:43 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
Analysts, brokers and traders expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to show natural gas inventories
shrunk by 40% less than their average decline for this time of year.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that storage levels fell by 108 billion cubic feet
of gas during the week ended Feb. 13, according to the average forecast of 17 analysts, brokers and traders surveyed by
The Wall Street Journal.
The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data for the week on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EST.
For the Feb. 13 week, the median estimate is for a drop of 110 bcf. Estimates range from a decline of 96 bcf to a
decline of 116 bcf.
The estimate for Feb. 13 is less than the 247 bcf drained from storage for the same week last year and less than the
180-bcf five-year average drain for that week.
If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of Feb. 13 totaled 2.2 trillion cubic feet, 46% above levels from
a year ago and 2.9% above the five-year average for the same week.
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 18, 2015 14:43 ET (19:43 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
021815 19:43 -- GMT
------
Dow Jones Natural Gas - Morning Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Falls as Severe Cold Can't Outweigh Healthy Supply
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas prices are falling slightly despite extreme cold and high demand as many analysts say the demand is not
enough to overcome strong supply.
Natural gas for March delivery is down 0.4 cents, or 0.1%, at $2.755 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange.
Below-normal temperatures are going to cover most of the country through the first week of March, Commodity Weather
Group said in its Wednesday forecast. About half of U.S. homes use natural gas for heat, meaning cold weather is one of
the biggest drivers for demand.
The cold weather is severe, with temperatures more than 15 degrees Fahernheit below normal likely to linger from St.
Louis to Buffalo until the end of February. Similar cold in New York this week has already pushed spot prices as high
as $42/mmBtu.
But production has been so strong that, despite the demand, storage levels have likely surpassed their five-year
average, said Matt Smith, an analyst at consultant Schneider Electric SA in Louisville, Ky. The U.S. Energy Information
Administration will give its weekly update on storage levels Thursday morning.
"In spite of the cold blast the market sentiment remains neutral at best," said Dominick Chirichella, analyst at the
Energy Management Institute. "There is ample supply available in inventory as well as from the current robust
production level to handle any weather."
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.89/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday's
range of $2.90-$2.97. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York traded in a bid-ask range of $22.00/mmBtu to
$70.00/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday's range of $30.00 to $42.00.
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 18, 2015 09:29 ET (14:29 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
021815 14:29 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas prices are falling slightly despite extreme cold and high demand as many analysts say the demand is not
enough to overcome strong supply.
Natural gas for March delivery is down 0.4 cents, or 0.1%, at $2.755 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange.
Below-normal temperatures are going to cover most of the country through the first week of March, Commodity Weather
Group said in its Wednesday forecast. About half of U.S. homes use natural gas for heat, meaning cold weather is one of
the biggest drivers for demand.
The cold weather is severe, with temperatures more than 15 degrees Fahernheit below normal likely to linger from St.
Louis to Buffalo until the end of February. Similar cold in New York this week has already pushed spot prices as high
as $42/mmBtu.
But production has been so strong that, despite the demand, storage levels have likely surpassed their five-year
average, said Matt Smith, an analyst at consultant Schneider Electric SA in Louisville, Ky. The U.S. Energy Information
Administration will give its weekly update on storage levels Thursday morning.
"In spite of the cold blast the market sentiment remains neutral at best," said Dominick Chirichella, analyst at the
Energy Management Institute. "There is ample supply available in inventory as well as from the current robust
production level to handle any weather."
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.89/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday's
range of $2.90-$2.97. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York traded in a bid-ask range of $22.00/mmBtu to
$70.00/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday's range of $30.00 to $42.00.
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 18, 2015 09:29 ET (14:29 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
021815 14:29 -- GMT
------
Natural Gas Technical Update - Key Resistance Area Holds On Tuesday - Bearish
The March 15 natural gas contract swung in a fairly wide .201 trading range on Tuesday but finished the day lower by .045 settling at 2.759.
The technical highlight of yesterday’s session was the early rally attempt which at one point had the March contract up by over .090. The contract topped out at a 2.896 daily high holding below 40 day moving average resistance which keeps the longer term market trend down.
The 10 day moving average held as support at yesterday’s 2.697 low and remains primary support today. A drop under the 10 day average would turn the near term trend back down with following support at the 2.567-2.575 weekly lows. If weekly low support is broken, the market could see an eventual price drop toward the 2.150-2.250 level.
The 40 day moving average at 2.895 today is primary resistance. A breakout above the 40 day average would be a bullish signal for the market possibly indicating a market low has been set.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Tuesday, February 17, 2015
Natural Gas Corner - Market Review
Natural gas prices fluctuated today in a fairly wide .200 intraday trade range but finished the session down a little over two cents on the nearby contracts.
A cold winter blast rallied the market last week higher by nearly 9% from a 31-month price low reached on a combination of short-covering and end-user buying.
Natural gas demand has been increasing as February temperatures across the U.S. have been the 3rd coldest for the month on record. This increased demand has been unable to override record high production in the U.S. and the fact that winter is rapidly winding down.
Storage withdrawals over the upcoming two weeks could come in larger than expected but overall storage at the end of March is expected to fall near the 10-year historical average of 1,565 Bcf.
Market drivers over the upcoming weeks will be storage withdrawals in comparison to pre-report estimates which over the past three weeks have come in lower than expected and weather forecasts.
Production will also need to be closely watched as it has been averaging 12-12.5% above last year's level.
If production remains high with storage being ample, there is little reason not to believe that natural gas prices could again revisit the lower-$2.000/MMBtu level during 2015.
A cold winter blast rallied the market last week higher by nearly 9% from a 31-month price low reached on a combination of short-covering and end-user buying.
Natural gas demand has been increasing as February temperatures across the U.S. have been the 3rd coldest for the month on record. This increased demand has been unable to override record high production in the U.S. and the fact that winter is rapidly winding down.
Storage withdrawals over the upcoming two weeks could come in larger than expected but overall storage at the end of March is expected to fall near the 10-year historical average of 1,565 Bcf.
Market drivers over the upcoming weeks will be storage withdrawals in comparison to pre-report estimates which over the past three weeks have come in lower than expected and weather forecasts.
Production will also need to be closely watched as it has been averaging 12-12.5% above last year's level.
If production remains high with storage being ample, there is little reason not to believe that natural gas prices could again revisit the lower-$2.000/MMBtu level during 2015.
Dow Jones Natural Gas - End Of Day Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Retreats Despite Frigid Forecasts
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices edged lower Tuesday, reversing earlier gains, on skepticism that colder-than-normal
temperatures would put much of a dent in natural-gas supplies.
Natural-gas futures for March delivery settled down 4.5 cents, or 1.6%, at $2.759 a million British thermal units.
About half of U.S. households use natural gas as their primary heating fuel, and frigid weather in recent weeks has
elevated natural-gas demand. However, strong production has counteracted the increase in natural-gas consumption,
limiting fears that stockpiles of the fuel will be depleted this winter as they were last year.
"More cold now still does not make that much of a difference to the immense oversupply that is still affecting the
market," said Martin King, analyst at FirstEnergy Capital, in a note. "The market has to tread carefully."
Weather forecasts on Tuesday showed "another very impressive cold shot" in the eastern half of the U.S. this week,
according to forecaster WSI Corp. The forecaster called for below-average temperatures to persist across the Midwest
and East Coast in the next 11 to 15 days.
"The general mood in the market is, even though we've seen this cold weather, is: How lasting is it going to be?"
said Tom Saal, a broker at INTL FCStone Latin America in Miami.
Natural-gas prices for next-day delivery spiked in some East Coast locations, as buyers tried to secure immediate
supplies during continued frigid, snowy weather.
Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York averaged $37.07/mmBtu on Tuesday, according to Intercontinental
Exchange Inc., up from an average of $17.72 on Friday. Next-day prices at the same hub soared to $90/mmBtu last year.
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex March $2.759 -4.5c
Nymex April $2.779 -3.3c
Nymex May $2.819 -3.4c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS SESSION
El Paso Perm $2.48-$2.64 $2.33-$2.47
El Paso SJ $2.52-$2.64 $2.33-$2.40
Henry Hub $2.90-$2.97 $2.68-$2.77
Katy $2.67-$2.85 $2.60-$2.72
SoCal $2.6325-$2.69 $2.44-$2.505
Tex East M3 $16.90-$24.00 $14.00-$22.00
Transco 65 $2.94-$2.985 $2.71-$2.80
Transco Z6 $30.00-$42.00 $15.00-$21.00
Waha $2.65-$2.77 $2.50-$2.565
Write to Nicole Friedman at nicole.friedman@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 17, 2015 14:56 ET (19:56 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
021715 19:56 -- GMT
------
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices edged lower Tuesday, reversing earlier gains, on skepticism that colder-than-normal
temperatures would put much of a dent in natural-gas supplies.
Natural-gas futures for March delivery settled down 4.5 cents, or 1.6%, at $2.759 a million British thermal units.
About half of U.S. households use natural gas as their primary heating fuel, and frigid weather in recent weeks has
elevated natural-gas demand. However, strong production has counteracted the increase in natural-gas consumption,
limiting fears that stockpiles of the fuel will be depleted this winter as they were last year.
"More cold now still does not make that much of a difference to the immense oversupply that is still affecting the
market," said Martin King, analyst at FirstEnergy Capital, in a note. "The market has to tread carefully."
Weather forecasts on Tuesday showed "another very impressive cold shot" in the eastern half of the U.S. this week,
according to forecaster WSI Corp. The forecaster called for below-average temperatures to persist across the Midwest
and East Coast in the next 11 to 15 days.
"The general mood in the market is, even though we've seen this cold weather, is: How lasting is it going to be?"
said Tom Saal, a broker at INTL FCStone Latin America in Miami.
Natural-gas prices for next-day delivery spiked in some East Coast locations, as buyers tried to secure immediate
supplies during continued frigid, snowy weather.
Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York averaged $37.07/mmBtu on Tuesday, according to Intercontinental
Exchange Inc., up from an average of $17.72 on Friday. Next-day prices at the same hub soared to $90/mmBtu last year.
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex March $2.759 -4.5c
Nymex April $2.779 -3.3c
Nymex May $2.819 -3.4c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS SESSION
El Paso Perm $2.48-$2.64 $2.33-$2.47
El Paso SJ $2.52-$2.64 $2.33-$2.40
Henry Hub $2.90-$2.97 $2.68-$2.77
Katy $2.67-$2.85 $2.60-$2.72
SoCal $2.6325-$2.69 $2.44-$2.505
Tex East M3 $16.90-$24.00 $14.00-$22.00
Transco 65 $2.94-$2.985 $2.71-$2.80
Transco Z6 $30.00-$42.00 $15.00-$21.00
Waha $2.65-$2.77 $2.50-$2.565
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 17, 2015 14:56 ET (19:56 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
021715 19:56 -- GMT
------
Dow Jones Natural Gas - Morning Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Buoyed by Frigid Forecasts
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices ticked higher Tuesday as updated weather forecasts showed colder-than-normal
temperatures extending into early March.
Natural-gas futures for March delivery recently rose 1.7 cents, or 0.6%, to $2.821 a million British thermal units.
About half of U.S. households use natural gas as their primary heating fuel, and frigid weather in recent weeks has
elevated natural-gas demand.
"Another very impressive cold shot will engulf the East this week, and the forecast is colder than forecast last
week," said forecaster WSI Corp. in a note Tuesday. The forecaster called for below-average temperatures to persist
across the Midwest and East Coast in the next 11 to 15 days.
However, strong production has counteracted the increase in natural-gas consumption, limiting fears that stockpiles
of the fuel will be depleted this winter as they were last year.
"The weather rally over the last week has been somewhat muted, primarily because nat gas supply remains robust," said
Dominick Chirichella, analyst at the Energy Management Institute, in a note.
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.955/mmBtu, compared with Friday's
range of $2.68-$2.77. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 in New York traded around $13.00/mmBtu, compared with Friday's
range of $15.00-$21.00.
Write to Nicole Friedman at nicole.friedman@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 17, 2015 09:14 ET (14:14 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
021715 14:14 -- GMT
------
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices ticked higher Tuesday as updated weather forecasts showed colder-than-normal
temperatures extending into early March.
Natural-gas futures for March delivery recently rose 1.7 cents, or 0.6%, to $2.821 a million British thermal units.
About half of U.S. households use natural gas as their primary heating fuel, and frigid weather in recent weeks has
elevated natural-gas demand.
"Another very impressive cold shot will engulf the East this week, and the forecast is colder than forecast last
week," said forecaster WSI Corp. in a note Tuesday. The forecaster called for below-average temperatures to persist
across the Midwest and East Coast in the next 11 to 15 days.
However, strong production has counteracted the increase in natural-gas consumption, limiting fears that stockpiles
of the fuel will be depleted this winter as they were last year.
"The weather rally over the last week has been somewhat muted, primarily because nat gas supply remains robust," said
Dominick Chirichella, analyst at the Energy Management Institute, in a note.
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.955/mmBtu, compared with Friday's
range of $2.68-$2.77. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 in New York traded around $13.00/mmBtu, compared with Friday's
range of $15.00-$21.00.
Write to Nicole Friedman at nicole.friedman@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 17, 2015 09:14 ET (14:14 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
021715 14:14 -- GMT
------
Commitment of Trader's Report - What A Difference A Year Makes
At this time one year ago, the funds were long over 488,000 natural gas futures contracts as the market was rallying above the $6.000/MMBtu level.
One year later, natural gas prices are trading near a 30-month low and the fund long position is only 76,080 contracts according to the Commitment of Trader's report released on Friday.
One year later, natural gas prices are trading near a 30-month low and the fund long position is only 76,080 contracts according to the Commitment of Trader's report released on Friday.
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