After falling to a new all-time price low in many of the forward strips on Monday, natural gas prices have been treading water in following trade.
The market remains weak as it enters into the post-winter “shoulder” season between winter heating and summer cooling demand.
Previous posts have shown the bearish triangle patterns initiated last Thursday which point toward lower prices near term. For the summer 15 strip (May 15-October 15), the downside measuring objective for the triangle is for trade to the 2.400 level.
It is important to remember that triangle patterns appear near the end of a price trend. Current weakness should be the final sell off for this downtrend and could possibly mark a multi-year price low for the market similar to 2012 when a triangle also formed near the price low.
One supportive feature for the market has been record large power generator demand for natural gas during January and February 2015. Daily demand of 23.1 Bcf has been 3.6 Bcf per day or 18.5% above the 5-year average.
The combination of increase power generator and industrial demand this year might be enough to offset record high production which has been the primary catalyst toward lower prices this winter.
The natural gas market could be ready to begin a new bull market in late-2015.
natural gas
Tuesday, March 31, 2015
Dow Jones Natural Gas - End of Day Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Inches Lower Tuesday, Posts Quarterly Loss
By Timothy Puko
Natural-gas prices ticked slightly lower Tuesday, as traders eyed spring weather and lower demand.
Futures for May delivery settled down 0.4 cent, or 0.2%, at $2.64 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. That put gas back within 5 cents of the 7-week low it set on Friday.
Natural gas lost 8.6% in the first quarter, marking its third consecutive quarterly loss. Natural gas prices have
fallen 41% in the past three quarters, the biggest such losing streak in 3 years.
Prices stayed within a 7-cent range in what one analyst called a "spooky" quiet session. Only about 50,000 contracts
traded during floor hours, the lowest number since July 30, 2010. About three times that traded in total volume -
including electronic trading hours - through 3 p.m. EDT, which would still make this one of the lightest sessions of
the past year.
Trading often slows in the spring as winter weather recedes into the past and takes away the biggest driver of
demand-heating. Day-to-day changes in the weather are becoming less important, and the biggest driver is likely to
become the amount of gas consumed by power plants, said Aaron Calder, senior market analyst at energy-consulting firm
Gelber & Associates in Houston.
Power plants are closing coal-fired boilers and adding gas-fired generation, especially as gas prices fall. How
quickly that trend ramps up this spring will likely dictate where prices go from here, but traders are still waiting
for data to judge that trend, Mr. Calder said.
"Folks are also cautious," said Campbell Faulkner, chief data analyst at broker OTC Global Holdings. "It is just very
spooky...and nothing is trading."
Production has also hovered near record highs for about a year. There is widespread belief that the market is
oversupplied, but traders have little room to profit from betting on falling prices because they have already fallen so
far, said Tom Saal, a broker at INTL FCStone Latin America in Miami.
"The market's going sideways here," he said. "There's just no aggressive selling."
--Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 31, 2015 16:03 ET (20:03 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
033115 20:03 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
Natural-gas prices ticked slightly lower Tuesday, as traders eyed spring weather and lower demand.
Futures for May delivery settled down 0.4 cent, or 0.2%, at $2.64 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. That put gas back within 5 cents of the 7-week low it set on Friday.
Natural gas lost 8.6% in the first quarter, marking its third consecutive quarterly loss. Natural gas prices have
fallen 41% in the past three quarters, the biggest such losing streak in 3 years.
Prices stayed within a 7-cent range in what one analyst called a "spooky" quiet session. Only about 50,000 contracts
traded during floor hours, the lowest number since July 30, 2010. About three times that traded in total volume -
including electronic trading hours - through 3 p.m. EDT, which would still make this one of the lightest sessions of
the past year.
Trading often slows in the spring as winter weather recedes into the past and takes away the biggest driver of
demand-heating. Day-to-day changes in the weather are becoming less important, and the biggest driver is likely to
become the amount of gas consumed by power plants, said Aaron Calder, senior market analyst at energy-consulting firm
Gelber & Associates in Houston.
Power plants are closing coal-fired boilers and adding gas-fired generation, especially as gas prices fall. How
quickly that trend ramps up this spring will likely dictate where prices go from here, but traders are still waiting
for data to judge that trend, Mr. Calder said.
"Folks are also cautious," said Campbell Faulkner, chief data analyst at broker OTC Global Holdings. "It is just very
spooky...and nothing is trading."
Production has also hovered near record highs for about a year. There is widespread belief that the market is
oversupplied, but traders have little room to profit from betting on falling prices because they have already fallen so
far, said Tom Saal, a broker at INTL FCStone Latin America in Miami.
"The market's going sideways here," he said. "There's just no aggressive selling."
--Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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>
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 31, 2015 16:03 ET (20:03 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
033115 20:03 -- GMT
------
Natural Gas Technical Update - Key Test Of Technical Resistance Upcoming
After falling to a new contract low at 2.608 in Monday’s early trade, the May 15 natural gas contract clawed back by the close settling at 2.666, up .027.
The May contract looks ready to move higher to retest former triangle trend line support broken last week at the 2.720-2.730 level today. If this resistance is reached and holds, it would be a very bearish technical signal for the market.
A rally back above 2.720-2.730 followed by the 10 and 40 day moving averages at 2.750 and 2.780, respectively, would negate the bearish triangle and turn the primary trend back higher.
The next few sessions should be a key test of technical resistance in the market.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish
Monday, March 30, 2015
Dow Jones Natural Gas - End of Day Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Bounces Off Seven-Week Low
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices ticked higher Monday as traders looked ahead to a last bout of cold weather.
Futures for May delivery settled up 0.5 cent, or 0.2%, at $2.644 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange.
Futures fell to a seven-week low Friday as market participants expected the onset of spring to reduce demand for the
heating fuel. Although spring has officially begun, some below-normal weather is still expected in the eastern U.S. in
the next two weeks. Natural gas consumption rises when temperatures drop, as consumers turn up gas-powered indoor
heating and power generators burn more natural gas to meeting electric-heating demand.
"There's still a bit of weather-based demand in this market," said Aaron Calder, analyst at Gelber & Associates, in a
note.
However, robust production is expected to keep a lid on price gains this spring, analysts say.
U.S. natural-gas inventories grew in the week ended March 20 due to ample production. Stockpiles of the fuel
typically deplete between October and April as frigid weather leads to higher consumption of natural gas. The recent
increase was the first of the year and came a week or two earlier than expected.
"There are no signs that production is falling away," said Barclays in a note. "The strength of production is the
reason, despite the cold beginning of the shoulder season, net injections have started at the earliest point since
2012."
Write to Nicole Friedman at nicole.friedman@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 30, 2015 15:23 ET (19:23 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
033015 19:23 -- GMT
------
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices ticked higher Monday as traders looked ahead to a last bout of cold weather.
Futures for May delivery settled up 0.5 cent, or 0.2%, at $2.644 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange.
Futures fell to a seven-week low Friday as market participants expected the onset of spring to reduce demand for the
heating fuel. Although spring has officially begun, some below-normal weather is still expected in the eastern U.S. in
the next two weeks. Natural gas consumption rises when temperatures drop, as consumers turn up gas-powered indoor
heating and power generators burn more natural gas to meeting electric-heating demand.
"There's still a bit of weather-based demand in this market," said Aaron Calder, analyst at Gelber & Associates, in a
note.
However, robust production is expected to keep a lid on price gains this spring, analysts say.
U.S. natural-gas inventories grew in the week ended March 20 due to ample production. Stockpiles of the fuel
typically deplete between October and April as frigid weather leads to higher consumption of natural gas. The recent
increase was the first of the year and came a week or two earlier than expected.
"There are no signs that production is falling away," said Barclays in a note. "The strength of production is the
reason, despite the cold beginning of the shoulder season, net injections have started at the earliest point since
2012."
Write to Nicole Friedman at nicole.friedman@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 30, 2015 15:23 ET (19:23 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
033015 19:23 -- GMT
------
Dow Jones Natural Gas - Morning Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Steady on Moderate Weather Outlook
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices traded near flat Monday on expectations that robust production would continue to
outweigh demand for the heating fuel.
Futures for May delivery recently rose 0.4 cent, or 0.2%, to $2.643 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange.
U.S. natural-gas inventories grew in the week ended March 20 due to ample production. Stockpiles of the fuel
typically deplete between October and April as frigid weather leads to higher consumption of natural gas. The recent
increase was the first of the year and came a week or two earlier than expected.
Natural-gas consumption is expected to stay moderate in the coming weeks as temperatures become more spring-like.
Temperatures in the Midwest, East and South are forecast to warm up in the next 11 to 15 days, though some
below-normal temperatures are still expected on the East Coast, according to Commodity Weather Group LLC.
Forecasts released Monday suggested lower demand for natural gas in the next two weeks compared with the forecasts
released Friday, according to the company.
"The short-term weather forecasts remain colder-than-normal, but not cold enough to have a significant impact on the
overall supply balances," said Dominick Chirichella, analyst at the Energy Management Institute, in a note Monday. "The
cold spell engulfing the East Coast has ended and spring is in the air."
In the market for physical natural gas, prices for next-day delivery of gas at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana
last traded at $2.5975/mmBtu, compared with Friday's average of $2.6323. At the Transco Z6 hub in New York, physical
gas traded in a bid-offer range of $2.40-$2.70, compared to Friday's average of $2.6616.
Write to Nicole Friedman at nicole.friedman@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 30, 2015 09:21 ET (13:21 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
033015 13:21 -- GMT
------
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices traded near flat Monday on expectations that robust production would continue to
outweigh demand for the heating fuel.
Futures for May delivery recently rose 0.4 cent, or 0.2%, to $2.643 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange.
U.S. natural-gas inventories grew in the week ended March 20 due to ample production. Stockpiles of the fuel
typically deplete between October and April as frigid weather leads to higher consumption of natural gas. The recent
increase was the first of the year and came a week or two earlier than expected.
Natural-gas consumption is expected to stay moderate in the coming weeks as temperatures become more spring-like.
Temperatures in the Midwest, East and South are forecast to warm up in the next 11 to 15 days, though some
below-normal temperatures are still expected on the East Coast, according to Commodity Weather Group LLC.
Forecasts released Monday suggested lower demand for natural gas in the next two weeks compared with the forecasts
released Friday, according to the company.
"The short-term weather forecasts remain colder-than-normal, but not cold enough to have a significant impact on the
overall supply balances," said Dominick Chirichella, analyst at the Energy Management Institute, in a note Monday. "The
cold spell engulfing the East Coast has ended and spring is in the air."
In the market for physical natural gas, prices for next-day delivery of gas at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana
last traded at $2.5975/mmBtu, compared with Friday's average of $2.6323. At the Transco Z6 hub in New York, physical
gas traded in a bid-offer range of $2.40-$2.70, compared to Friday's average of $2.6616.
Write to Nicole Friedman at nicole.friedman@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 30, 2015 09:21 ET (13:21 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
033015 13:21 -- GMT
------
Natural Gas Corner - Summer 15 Natural Gas Strip - Bearish Triangle Update
The summer 15 natural gas strip (May 15-October 15 contracts) last week triggered a bearish triangle pattern with a drop under lower trend line support near the 2.820 level.
The downside measuring objective for the triangle pattern is equal to the price difference between points 1 and 2 which is approximately .400.
Therefore, from the 2.820 breakout level, the downside measuring objective is for the summer 15 strip to trade down to the 2.400-2.420 level for completion of the triangle.
A close back above lower triangle trend line resistance between 2.820-2.850 would likely indicate the triangle pattern has failed turning the market trend back up.
Natural Gas Technical Update - Bearish Triangle Pattern Triggered In Last Week's Trade
The new front month May 15 natural gas contract broke out to the downside last Thursday from a sideways triangle pattern.
The breakout under 2.710-2.720 trend line support triggered the pattern. After settling Friday’s session at 2.639, down .164 or 5.8% for the week, the May contract has since traded down to a new contract low at 2.608 in today’s session.
The 2.608 overnight low is the first area of support followed by weekly low support at 2.567-2.575. A close under weekly low support would turn the lower-2.400 area into the next downside objective.
A breakout from triangle patterns are typically followed by a retest of former support as resistance. This would entail the May contract trading back up toward the 2.710-2.720 level which now becomes resistance. If this area is reached and holds as resistance, it would be a very bearish technical signal for the market.
A close back above 2.710-2.720 followed by the 10 and 40 day moving averages at 2.770-2.790 would indicate last week’s breakout has failed turning the primary market trend back up.
The funds added 6,389 contracts to their existing long position in the natural gas market according to Friday’s Commitment of Trader’s report. The current position was estimated at 113,150 contracts as of last Tuesday’s close.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish
Commitment of Trader's Report - Natural Gas - Funds Adding To Long Positions
The fund long position in the natural gas market increased slightly according to Friday's COT report.
The fund long futures position was estimated at 113,150 contracts, up 6,389 from the previous week.
The funds keep trying to buy the natural gas market only to see it sink to new lows.
What happened to, "The smartest guys in the room?"
The fund long futures position was estimated at 113,150 contracts, up 6,389 from the previous week.
The funds keep trying to buy the natural gas market only to see it sink to new lows.
What happened to, "The smartest guys in the room?"
Natural Gas Corner - Natural Gas Seasonal Price Trend Review
The natural gas market last week broke out to the downside from a bearish triangle pattern as shown in a previous post.
Current weakness should be the final push lower before a post-winter seasonal low forms in the market.
This low could take a few weeks to form but should be an excellent opportunity to get long the natural gas market ahead of the expected summer rally.
A second and final seasonal low is expected last this year typically during the months of August or September.
Current weakness should be the final push lower before a post-winter seasonal low forms in the market.
This low could take a few weeks to form but should be an excellent opportunity to get long the natural gas market ahead of the expected summer rally.
A second and final seasonal low is expected last this year typically during the months of August or September.
Friday, March 27, 2015
Dow Jones Natural Gas - Morning Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Extends Slide as Warmer Weather Looms
By Christian Berthelsen
Natural gas prices slipped Friday as warmer temperatures crept into the forecasts with the onset of spring, reducing
expectations for late-season heating demand that could support the market.
The front-month April natural gas contract was down 3.9 cents, or 1.5%, at $2.6330 a million British thermal units on
the New York Mercantile Exchange, on pace for a third-consecutive losing session. The market is bumping along at its
lowest levels of the year as the U.S. enters a so-called shoulder season between winter and spring, and demand for
gas-fired heating falls away. The April contract is set to expire with the close of trading Friday.
There were no major revisions to temperature outlooks in the coming days and weeks, but there was a slight warming
trend, with above-normal temperatures growing over much of the Southwest during early April and the lingering cool over
the Northeast beginning to fade.
"The market is sending off some strong overtures that the weather factor is quickly dissipating as a supportive
market force," research consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
Meanwhile, gas production from domestic shale formations remains high and U.S. stockpiles of natural gas inventories
are growing. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Thursday that inventories rose 12 billion cubic feet in
the week ended March 20; it was the first increase of the year after a season of drawdowns to meet heating demand, and
came a week or two earlier than what analysts normally expect.
The supply growth brought overall inventories to 1.5 trillion cubic feet, 64% higher than year-ago levels that were
severely depleted by last year's harsh winter, and 12% below average for this time of year.
In the market for physical natural gas, prices for next-day delivery of gas at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana
last traded at $2.6150 a million BTUs, within Thursday's range of $2.60-$2.7575. At the Transco Z6 hub in New York,
physical gas traded in a bid-offer range of $2.60-$2.65, below Thursday's range of $2.68-$2.75.
Write to Christian Berthelsen at christian.berthelsen@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 27, 2015 09:58 ET (13:58 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
032715 13:58 -- GMT
------
By Christian Berthelsen
Natural gas prices slipped Friday as warmer temperatures crept into the forecasts with the onset of spring, reducing
expectations for late-season heating demand that could support the market.
The front-month April natural gas contract was down 3.9 cents, or 1.5%, at $2.6330 a million British thermal units on
the New York Mercantile Exchange, on pace for a third-consecutive losing session. The market is bumping along at its
lowest levels of the year as the U.S. enters a so-called shoulder season between winter and spring, and demand for
gas-fired heating falls away. The April contract is set to expire with the close of trading Friday.
There were no major revisions to temperature outlooks in the coming days and weeks, but there was a slight warming
trend, with above-normal temperatures growing over much of the Southwest during early April and the lingering cool over
the Northeast beginning to fade.
"The market is sending off some strong overtures that the weather factor is quickly dissipating as a supportive
market force," research consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
Meanwhile, gas production from domestic shale formations remains high and U.S. stockpiles of natural gas inventories
are growing. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Thursday that inventories rose 12 billion cubic feet in
the week ended March 20; it was the first increase of the year after a season of drawdowns to meet heating demand, and
came a week or two earlier than what analysts normally expect.
The supply growth brought overall inventories to 1.5 trillion cubic feet, 64% higher than year-ago levels that were
severely depleted by last year's harsh winter, and 12% below average for this time of year.
In the market for physical natural gas, prices for next-day delivery of gas at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana
last traded at $2.6150 a million BTUs, within Thursday's range of $2.60-$2.7575. At the Transco Z6 hub in New York,
physical gas traded in a bid-offer range of $2.60-$2.65, below Thursday's range of $2.68-$2.75.
Write to Christian Berthelsen at christian.berthelsen@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 27, 2015 09:58 ET (13:58 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
032715 13:58 -- GMT
------
Natural Gas Technical Update - Key Technical Support Broken On Thursday
The April 15 natural gas contract broke out to the downside on Thursday from a sideways consolidation pattern that has been forming since mid-January. If the breakout holds over the next few sessions, a final drop to new price lows over the next few weeks is expected.
The support broken on Thursday by the April contract was a weekly low trend line at the 2.680-2.700 level which now becomes primary resistance. A close back above 2.700 should indicate the breakout has failed.
If weakness continues, the 2.589 contract low will become the next downside support followed by weekly low support between 2.567-2.575. A close under weekly low support would turn 2.400-2.450 into the next longer term support.
If the market does fall to a new price low for this current downtrend, it should be the final sell off before a post-winter seasonal low forms.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish
Thursday, March 26, 2015
Natural Gas Corner - Market Review - Natural Gas Falls To New 6-Week Low Following Storage Build
The natural gas market today broke out to the downside from a sideways trading range that has been in place since mid-January.
The spark behind today's sell off was the EIA weekly storage report which showed a 12 Bcf build, the first storage increase of 2015 and 2 Bcf above the average analyst pre-report estimate. Current gas in storage of 1,479 Bcf might be the low point of 2015; however, colder temperatures expected this weekend across much of the U.S. might bring in one final storage withdrawal for winter 14-15.
Current gas in storage is slightly below the 10-year average of 1,565 Bcf for end of March storage but well above last year's 822 Bcf level.
Focus will now shift on upcoming summer weather forecasts which for the most part have been neutral or bearish and how much gas is injected into storage during the April-October injection season. Last year's injection during this time period were a record high 2,745 Bcf but has typically average 2,046 over the past decade.
Demand this upcoming summer is expected to increase from the electric power generation and the industrial users which could help offset record high U.S. production which has been a bearish feature for the market.
Current weakness in the market should be the final drop lower before a seasonal low forms ahead of the summer cooling season.
A post tomorrow will show the downside price objectives for the bearish triangle patterns triggered today in the summer 15 and winter 15-16 natural gas strips.
The spark behind today's sell off was the EIA weekly storage report which showed a 12 Bcf build, the first storage increase of 2015 and 2 Bcf above the average analyst pre-report estimate. Current gas in storage of 1,479 Bcf might be the low point of 2015; however, colder temperatures expected this weekend across much of the U.S. might bring in one final storage withdrawal for winter 14-15.
Current gas in storage is slightly below the 10-year average of 1,565 Bcf for end of March storage but well above last year's 822 Bcf level.
Focus will now shift on upcoming summer weather forecasts which for the most part have been neutral or bearish and how much gas is injected into storage during the April-October injection season. Last year's injection during this time period were a record high 2,745 Bcf but has typically average 2,046 over the past decade.
Demand this upcoming summer is expected to increase from the electric power generation and the industrial users which could help offset record high U.S. production which has been a bearish feature for the market.
Current weakness in the market should be the final drop lower before a seasonal low forms ahead of the summer cooling season.
A post tomorrow will show the downside price objectives for the bearish triangle patterns triggered today in the summer 15 and winter 15-16 natural gas strips.
EIA Weekly Storage Report - 12 Bcf Injection - First Injection of 2015
For the week ended
March 20:
EIA Injection - 12 BCF
Last Year's Withdrawal - 56 BCF
5 Yr Avg Withdrawal - 19 BCF
Range of Estimates - 5 BCF Withdrawal to 25 BCF Injection
Avg Estimate - 10 BCF Injection
Total Gas in Storage - 1.479
EIA Injection - 12 BCF
Last Year's Withdrawal - 56 BCF
5 Yr Avg Withdrawal - 19 BCF
Range of Estimates - 5 BCF Withdrawal to 25 BCF Injection
Avg Estimate - 10 BCF Injection
Total Gas in Storage - 1.479
Dow Jones Natural Gas - Morning Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Holds Steady Before Storage Update
By Timothy Puko
Natural-gas prices are holding steady as the market enters its calmest trading since December ahead of an influential
update on inventories.
Natural gas for April delivery gained 1.5 cents, or 0.6%, to $2.738 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. The more actively traded May contract is up 1.5 cents, or 0.6%, at $2.755/mmBtu. April options
expire at the end of Thursday's trading and the April contract expires at the end of Friday's trading.
Both volume and volatility are exceptionally light for a contract this close to expiration, said Dean Hazelcorn,
trader at the brokerage Coquest Inc. in Dallas. Trading has stayed within a 4-cent range on both contracts.
The market "is not doing anything," Mr. Hazelcorn said. "We are trapped."
The shale-gas boom has flooded the market with record production able to overwhelm all but the most extreme demand.
That has damped volatility as spring weather has approached, reducing the likelihood a long winter of extreme cold
could cause enough demand to absorb all the supply.
Thursday morning is usually a day of light trading, too, ahead of the U.S. Energy Information Agency's weekly update
on storage levels, due at 10:30 a.m. EDT. Traders usually consolidate ahead of the data to avoid getting caught in bad
positions.
They expect a 10-billion-cubic-feet addition to stockpiles for the week that ended March 20, according to The Wall
Street Journal's survey of 18 brokers and traders. Demand for heating fuel usually causes stockpiles to drop through
the end of March, but this year's potentially early start for stockpile additions could encourage a selloff, analysts
have said.
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.7475/mmBtu, compared with
Wednesday's range of $2.73-$2.79. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York traded in a bid-ask range of
$2.67/mmBtu to $2.80/mmBtu, compared with Wednesday's range of $2.50 to $2.70.
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 26, 2015 09:41 ET (13:41 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
032615 13:41 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
Natural-gas prices are holding steady as the market enters its calmest trading since December ahead of an influential
update on inventories.
Natural gas for April delivery gained 1.5 cents, or 0.6%, to $2.738 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. The more actively traded May contract is up 1.5 cents, or 0.6%, at $2.755/mmBtu. April options
expire at the end of Thursday's trading and the April contract expires at the end of Friday's trading.
Both volume and volatility are exceptionally light for a contract this close to expiration, said Dean Hazelcorn,
trader at the brokerage Coquest Inc. in Dallas. Trading has stayed within a 4-cent range on both contracts.
The market "is not doing anything," Mr. Hazelcorn said. "We are trapped."
The shale-gas boom has flooded the market with record production able to overwhelm all but the most extreme demand.
That has damped volatility as spring weather has approached, reducing the likelihood a long winter of extreme cold
could cause enough demand to absorb all the supply.
Thursday morning is usually a day of light trading, too, ahead of the U.S. Energy Information Agency's weekly update
on storage levels, due at 10:30 a.m. EDT. Traders usually consolidate ahead of the data to avoid getting caught in bad
positions.
They expect a 10-billion-cubic-feet addition to stockpiles for the week that ended March 20, according to The Wall
Street Journal's survey of 18 brokers and traders. Demand for heating fuel usually causes stockpiles to drop through
the end of March, but this year's potentially early start for stockpile additions could encourage a selloff, analysts
have said.
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.7475/mmBtu, compared with
Wednesday's range of $2.73-$2.79. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York traded in a bid-ask range of
$2.67/mmBtu to $2.80/mmBtu, compared with Wednesday's range of $2.50 to $2.70.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 26, 2015 09:41 ET (13:41 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
032615 13:41 -- GMT
------
Natural Gas Technical Update - Will Key Support Finally Be Broken Today?
The April 15 natural gas contract remains mired in a 3-month sideways range trading between the 2.650-2.700 area as support and the lower-3.000 level as resistance.
In yesterday’s trade, the April contract moved back lower erasing the previous day’s gains to settle at 2.723, down .063 (2.2%).
Although the market has been range bound, the primary trend remains sideways to lower with a breakout under 2.680-2.700 weekly low support needed to spur the next leg down in the market. If weekly low support is broken, the 2.589 contract low will become the next downside support followed by the 2.400-2.450 level.
The 10 and 40 day moving averages at 2.765-2.780 area the first areas of resistance today followed by upper trend line resistance currently near 2.900. A breakout above this trend line followed by the 3.045 February high will turn the longer term trend back up.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish
Wednesday, March 25, 2015
Dow Jones Natural Gas - End of Day Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Prices Retreat on Warmer Forecasts, Growing Stockpiles
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas retreated Wednesday as expectations grew for the year's first addition to stockpiles and warmer forecasts
suggested falling demand.
Natural gas for April delivery settled down 6.3 cents, or 2.3%, at $2.723 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange. It is down in four of the past five sessions and closed at its lowest point in more than a
week.
Some weather forecasts are showing above-normal temperatures for most of the country next week, a day after they
showed lingering winter cold. About half of U.S. homes use natural gas for heat, and milder spring weather would lead
to a dramatic dropoff in demand.
Analysts and brokers are also expecting the first addition to stockpiles of 2015. The U.S. Energy Information
Administration is scheduled to release its weekly gas storage update on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EDT. Producers likely
added 10 billion cubic feet, according to The Wall Street Journal's survey of 18 brokers and traders.
An addition this early in the year could be a sign that stockpiles will grow at a rapid pace this summer, said Bob
Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. That would encourage more selling.
"We could test $2.70 in no time, but I don't think it's going to fall apart here," he added.
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex April $2.723 -6.3c
Nymex May $2.74 -7c
Nymex June $2.788 -6.6c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS SESSION
El Paso Perm $2.42-$2.45 $2.44-$2.475
El Paso SJ $2.41-$2.44 $2.415-$2.46
Henry Hub $2.73-$2.79 $2.75-$2.7975
Katy $2.64-$2.70 $2.67-$2.74
SoCal $2.51-$2.55 $2.50-$2.57
Tex East M3 $1.595-$1.86 $1.82-$2.18
Transco 65 $2.66-$2.6975 $2.675-$2.7675
Transco Z6 $2.50-$2.70 $2.645-$2.74
Waha $2.53-$2.58 $2.555-$2.60
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 25, 2015 16:42 ET (20:42 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
032515 20:42 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas retreated Wednesday as expectations grew for the year's first addition to stockpiles and warmer forecasts
suggested falling demand.
Natural gas for April delivery settled down 6.3 cents, or 2.3%, at $2.723 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange. It is down in four of the past five sessions and closed at its lowest point in more than a
week.
Some weather forecasts are showing above-normal temperatures for most of the country next week, a day after they
showed lingering winter cold. About half of U.S. homes use natural gas for heat, and milder spring weather would lead
to a dramatic dropoff in demand.
Analysts and brokers are also expecting the first addition to stockpiles of 2015. The U.S. Energy Information
Administration is scheduled to release its weekly gas storage update on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EDT. Producers likely
added 10 billion cubic feet, according to The Wall Street Journal's survey of 18 brokers and traders.
An addition this early in the year could be a sign that stockpiles will grow at a rapid pace this summer, said Bob
Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. That would encourage more selling.
"We could test $2.70 in no time, but I don't think it's going to fall apart here," he added.
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex April $2.723 -6.3c
Nymex May $2.74 -7c
Nymex June $2.788 -6.6c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS SESSION
El Paso Perm $2.42-$2.45 $2.44-$2.475
El Paso SJ $2.41-$2.44 $2.415-$2.46
Henry Hub $2.73-$2.79 $2.75-$2.7975
Katy $2.64-$2.70 $2.67-$2.74
SoCal $2.51-$2.55 $2.50-$2.57
Tex East M3 $1.595-$1.86 $1.82-$2.18
Transco 65 $2.66-$2.6975 $2.675-$2.7675
Transco Z6 $2.50-$2.70 $2.645-$2.74
Waha $2.53-$2.58 $2.555-$2.60
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 25, 2015 16:42 ET (20:42 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
032515 20:42 -- GMT
------
Analysts' Estimates For Tomorrow's EIA Weekly Storage Report - The First Injection of 2015?
DJ Analysts See 10-Billion-Cubic-Feet Addition to U.S. Natural Gas Inventories
By Timothy Puko
Analysts and traders expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to show natural gas inventories grew at a
time of year when they usually shrink.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that storage levels grew by 10 billion cubic feet of
gas during the week ended March 20, according to the average forecast of 15 analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall
Street Journal.
The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data for the week on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
For the March 20 week, the median estimate is for an addition of 7 bcf. Estimates range from a decline of 5 bcf to an
addition of 25 bcf.
The estimate for March 20 compares to 56 bcf drained from storage for the same week last year and the 19-bcf
five-year average drain for that week.
If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of March 20 totaled 1.5 trillion cubic feet, 63% above levels from
a year ago and 12% below the five-year average for the same week.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 25, 2015 13:28 ET (17:28 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
032515 17:28 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
Analysts and traders expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to show natural gas inventories grew at a
time of year when they usually shrink.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that storage levels grew by 10 billion cubic feet of
gas during the week ended March 20, according to the average forecast of 15 analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall
Street Journal.
The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data for the week on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
For the March 20 week, the median estimate is for an addition of 7 bcf. Estimates range from a decline of 5 bcf to an
addition of 25 bcf.
The estimate for March 20 compares to 56 bcf drained from storage for the same week last year and the 19-bcf
five-year average drain for that week.
If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of March 20 totaled 1.5 trillion cubic feet, 63% above levels from
a year ago and 12% below the five-year average for the same week.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 25, 2015 13:28 ET (17:28 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
032515 17:28 -- GMT
------
Dow Jones Natural Gas - Morning Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Prices Retreating on Warmer Forecasts, Growing Stockpiles
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas is retreating as warmer forecasts suggest falling demand and the potential to add to stockpiles for the
first time this year.
Natural gas for April delivery is down 3.9 cents, or 1.4%, at $2.747 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. The market has given back most of Tuesday's gains.
Weather forecasts have oscillated wildly in the past month and some are now showing above-normal temperatures for
most of the country next week, a day after they showed lingering winter cold. About half of U.S. homes use natural gas
for heat, and milder spring weather would lead to a dramatic dropoff in demand.
Some analysts and traders are also expecting that stockpiles grew last week for the first time this year. The U.S.
Energy Information Administration scheduled its official update on storage levels for Thursday at 10:30 a.m. An
addition this early in the year could be a sign that stockpiles will grow at a rapid pace this summer and encourage
more selling, said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc.
"We could test $2.70 in no time, but I don't think it's going to fall apart here," he added.
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.75/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday's
range of $2.75-$2.7975. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York last traded at $2.54/mmBtu, compared with
Tuesday's range of $2.645 to $2.74.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 25, 2015 10:01 ET (14:01 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
032515 14:01 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas is retreating as warmer forecasts suggest falling demand and the potential to add to stockpiles for the
first time this year.
Natural gas for April delivery is down 3.9 cents, or 1.4%, at $2.747 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. The market has given back most of Tuesday's gains.
Weather forecasts have oscillated wildly in the past month and some are now showing above-normal temperatures for
most of the country next week, a day after they showed lingering winter cold. About half of U.S. homes use natural gas
for heat, and milder spring weather would lead to a dramatic dropoff in demand.
Some analysts and traders are also expecting that stockpiles grew last week for the first time this year. The U.S.
Energy Information Administration scheduled its official update on storage levels for Thursday at 10:30 a.m. An
addition this early in the year could be a sign that stockpiles will grow at a rapid pace this summer and encourage
more selling, said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc.
"We could test $2.70 in no time, but I don't think it's going to fall apart here," he added.
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.75/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday's
range of $2.75-$2.7975. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York last traded at $2.54/mmBtu, compared with
Tuesday's range of $2.645 to $2.74.
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 25, 2015 10:01 ET (14:01 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
032515 14:01 -- GMT
------
Natural Gas Technical Update - Bearish Triangle Pattern Forming
The April 15 natural gas contract continues to trade just above key support at the 2.680-2.700 which was reached during Monday’s session.
The market moved back higher on Tuesday as support held again with the April contract gaining .053 (1.9%) settling at 2.786.
The April contract remains in a sideways consolidation pattern which has been in place since the mid-January high. Support has been between 2.660-2.700 with recent selling resistance reached last week at the lower-2.900 level. A breakout from this range is needed to determine the next move for the market.
A downside breakout under 2.680-2.700 support would turn the 2.589 contract low into the next downside support with longer term support between 2.400-2.450.
An upside breakout above lower-2.900 resistance would turn 3.045 and 3.194 into the next resistance levels. It would also turn the longer term market trend back up.
Given the trend for the market, the eventual breakout will likely be to the downside under weekly low support.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Tuesday, March 24, 2015
Dow Jones Natural Gas - End of Day Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Rebounds on Cold Start to Spring
By Timothy Puko
Natural-gas prices inched up Tuesday after forecasts showed a colder-than-expected start for spring and suggested a
lingering demand for gas heat.
Natural gas for April delivery settled up 5.3 cents, or 1.9%, at $2.786 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange. The gains snapped a three-session losing streak and reversed losses from Monday's session.
Snow and cold have traders thinking about lingering heating demand, brokers and analysts said. About half of all U.S.
homes use natural gas for heating fuel, making winter weather one of the biggest drivers of demand.
"It's probably just enough to keep this market from really tanking again," said Frank Clements, co-owner of Meridian
Energy Brokers Inc. outside New York. "We're at a really good price level, maybe right where we should be."
After a steep fall for the better part of seven months, natural-gas prices have stabilized. They have traded within a
34-cent range for seven weeks.
Mr. Clements and several analysts think this boost will be only temporary. The natural-gas market is oversupplied by
about two billion cubic feet a day, which likely will cause prices to fall as heating demand declines this spring,
according to investment bank Simmons & Co. International.
But that is weeks away, especially in the biggest gas markets of the Midwest and Northeast, meteorologists said
Tuesday. "Major cold shots" are coming through the northern Plains and into the East, with areas from St. Louis to
Maine likely to see temperatures about five degrees Fahrenheit below normal through the first week of April, they said.
It will feel "more like the dead of winter than the last weekend of March," WeatherBELL Analytics LLC in New York
said in its Tuesday morning update.
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 24, 2015 15:15 ET (19:15 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
032415 19:15 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
Natural-gas prices inched up Tuesday after forecasts showed a colder-than-expected start for spring and suggested a
lingering demand for gas heat.
Natural gas for April delivery settled up 5.3 cents, or 1.9%, at $2.786 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange. The gains snapped a three-session losing streak and reversed losses from Monday's session.
Snow and cold have traders thinking about lingering heating demand, brokers and analysts said. About half of all U.S.
homes use natural gas for heating fuel, making winter weather one of the biggest drivers of demand.
"It's probably just enough to keep this market from really tanking again," said Frank Clements, co-owner of Meridian
Energy Brokers Inc. outside New York. "We're at a really good price level, maybe right where we should be."
After a steep fall for the better part of seven months, natural-gas prices have stabilized. They have traded within a
34-cent range for seven weeks.
Mr. Clements and several analysts think this boost will be only temporary. The natural-gas market is oversupplied by
about two billion cubic feet a day, which likely will cause prices to fall as heating demand declines this spring,
according to investment bank Simmons & Co. International.
But that is weeks away, especially in the biggest gas markets of the Midwest and Northeast, meteorologists said
Tuesday. "Major cold shots" are coming through the northern Plains and into the East, with areas from St. Louis to
Maine likely to see temperatures about five degrees Fahrenheit below normal through the first week of April, they said.
It will feel "more like the dead of winter than the last weekend of March," WeatherBELL Analytics LLC in New York
said in its Tuesday morning update.
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 24, 2015 15:15 ET (19:15 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
032415 19:15 -- GMT
------
Dow Jones Natural Gas - Morning Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Rebounds on Cold Start to Spring
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas prices are inching back up as forecasts grow colder, suggesting strong demand for the first week of
spring.
Natural gas for April delivery is up 5.8 cents, or 2.1%, at $2.791 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. The gains completely reverse losses from Monday's session.
Snow and cold in the Midwest have traders thinking about lingering heating demand, Jim Ritterbusch, president of
energy-advisory firm Ritterbusch & Associates, said in a note to clients. About half of all U.S. homes use natural gas
for heating fuel, making winter weather one of the biggest drivers for demand.
"A stubborn cold weather factor remains in play as a supportive item for the time being," Mr. Ritterbusch said.
Mr. Ritterbusch and other analysts think this boost will be only temporary. The natural gas market is still
oversupplied by about two billion cubic feet a day, which likely will cause prices to fall as heating demand declines
this spring, according to investment bank Simmons & Co. International.
But that is still weeks away, especially in the biggest gas markets of the Midwest and Northeast, meteorologists said
Tuesday. "Major cold shots" are coming through the northern Plains and into the East, with areas from St. Louis to
Maine likely to see temperatures about 5 degrees Fahrenheit below normal through the first week of April, they said.
It will feel "more like the dead of winter than the last weekend of March," WeatherBELL Analytics LLC in New York
said in its Tuesday morning update.
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.7975/mmBtu, compared with Monday's
range of $2.65 to $2.725. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York traded in a bid-ask range of $2.65/mmBtu to
$2.84/mmBtu, compared with Monday's range of $2.75 to $2.795.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 24, 2015 09:29 ET (13:29 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
032415 13:29 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas prices are inching back up as forecasts grow colder, suggesting strong demand for the first week of
spring.
Natural gas for April delivery is up 5.8 cents, or 2.1%, at $2.791 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. The gains completely reverse losses from Monday's session.
Snow and cold in the Midwest have traders thinking about lingering heating demand, Jim Ritterbusch, president of
energy-advisory firm Ritterbusch & Associates, said in a note to clients. About half of all U.S. homes use natural gas
for heating fuel, making winter weather one of the biggest drivers for demand.
"A stubborn cold weather factor remains in play as a supportive item for the time being," Mr. Ritterbusch said.
Mr. Ritterbusch and other analysts think this boost will be only temporary. The natural gas market is still
oversupplied by about two billion cubic feet a day, which likely will cause prices to fall as heating demand declines
this spring, according to investment bank Simmons & Co. International.
But that is still weeks away, especially in the biggest gas markets of the Midwest and Northeast, meteorologists said
Tuesday. "Major cold shots" are coming through the northern Plains and into the East, with areas from St. Louis to
Maine likely to see temperatures about 5 degrees Fahrenheit below normal through the first week of April, they said.
It will feel "more like the dead of winter than the last weekend of March," WeatherBELL Analytics LLC in New York
said in its Tuesday morning update.
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.7975/mmBtu, compared with Monday's
range of $2.65 to $2.725. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York traded in a bid-ask range of $2.65/mmBtu to
$2.84/mmBtu, compared with Monday's range of $2.75 to $2.795.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 24, 2015 09:29 ET (13:29 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
032415 13:29 -- GMT
------
Natural Gas Technical Update - Weekly Low Support Holds Again On Monday
A gap lower open on Monday dropped the April 15 natural gas contract to a 2.691 early morning low. As 2.680-2.700 weekly low trend line support held again, the contract moved off the morning low to settle the day at 2.733, down .053 (1.9%).
Buying has come back into the market overnight rallying the April contract toward 10 and 40 day moving average resistance between 2.770-2.790. A breakout above this level would turn the lower-2.900 level into the next upside resistance.
2.680-2.700 remains primary support in today’s trade.
Longer term, a breakout from the sideways range that has been in place since early-2015 is needed to determine the next direction from the market.
A downside breakout under 2.680-2.700 support would keep the primary market trend bearish. An upside breakout above lower-3.000 resistance would turn the longer term market trend back up.
Given the trend for the market over the past 5 months, odds favor a downside breakout under lower trend line support.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Monday, March 23, 2015
Has The Crude Oil Market Bottomed?
The spot crude oil contract last week fell to a new 6 ½ year low bottoming out at the 42.03 level.
Last week’s low held above 16-year weekly trend line chart support shown in red. By holding above support, the bullish series of higher lows that has been in place since 1998 remains intact.
In order to turn the longer term trend back higher, the spot May 15 crude oil contract needs to breakout above the early-February high at the 56.07 level.
If the market turns back lower and closes under trend line support, the 32.40 low from December 2008 will become the next downside price objective
Dow Jones Natural Gas - Morning Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Slides as Forecasts Turn More Temperate
By Christian Berthelsen
Natural gas futures slid Monday as forecasts for below-normal temperatures over the Northeast faded in the coming
weeks, dashing expectations for a final bout of late-season heating demand.
Natural gas for April delivery was down 9.1 cents, or 2.9%, at $2.7050 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange, on pace for a third-consecutive session of declines.
Revisions to weather forecasts over the weekend grew more variable in keeping with the transition from winter to
spring, as what was expected to be a strong bout of much-below normal temperatures over a large swath of the Northeast
during the last days of March and the beginning of April turned more seasonal.
"As the calendar rolls into the middle of the transitional springtime season, the weather models and the patterns
themselves can be more difficult to nail down, especially in terms of establishing stability," Commodity Weather Group
said in a note.
While prices have recovered from 52-week lows hit last month, the market remains mired in surging production and
tapering demand with the end of winter heating season. Natural gas is used to heat more than half the homes in the
U.S., according to the Energy Information Administration.
"Unrelenting supply growth has returned natural-gas prices to five-year lows despite a colder-than-normal end to
winter," Morgan Stanley said in a note. "There are risks that prices see further downward pressure this spring as
heating demand dissipates and inventories show large year-over-year surpluses."
Indeed, the most recent weekly inventory data released by the EIA showed inventories are 53% higher than year-ago
levels that were depleted by last year's severe winter, and 13% below average for this time of year.
Money managers such as hedge funds and other financial investors in the market are largely bearish, with the number
of bets that prices will fall outnumbering bets that they will rise, according to data released Friday by the U.S.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
In the physical market, cash prices for next-day delivery of gas at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded
at $2.67 a million Btus, below Friday's range of $2.7925-$2.86. Prices for physical gas at the Transco Z6 hub in New
York traded in a bid-offer range of $2.20-$3.00, compared with Friday's range of $2.85-$2.91.
Write to Christian Berthelsen at christian.berthelsen@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 23, 2015 09:18 ET (13:18 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
032315 13:18 -- GMT
------
By Christian Berthelsen
Natural gas futures slid Monday as forecasts for below-normal temperatures over the Northeast faded in the coming
weeks, dashing expectations for a final bout of late-season heating demand.
Natural gas for April delivery was down 9.1 cents, or 2.9%, at $2.7050 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange, on pace for a third-consecutive session of declines.
Revisions to weather forecasts over the weekend grew more variable in keeping with the transition from winter to
spring, as what was expected to be a strong bout of much-below normal temperatures over a large swath of the Northeast
during the last days of March and the beginning of April turned more seasonal.
"As the calendar rolls into the middle of the transitional springtime season, the weather models and the patterns
themselves can be more difficult to nail down, especially in terms of establishing stability," Commodity Weather Group
said in a note.
While prices have recovered from 52-week lows hit last month, the market remains mired in surging production and
tapering demand with the end of winter heating season. Natural gas is used to heat more than half the homes in the
U.S., according to the Energy Information Administration.
"Unrelenting supply growth has returned natural-gas prices to five-year lows despite a colder-than-normal end to
winter," Morgan Stanley said in a note. "There are risks that prices see further downward pressure this spring as
heating demand dissipates and inventories show large year-over-year surpluses."
Indeed, the most recent weekly inventory data released by the EIA showed inventories are 53% higher than year-ago
levels that were depleted by last year's severe winter, and 13% below average for this time of year.
Money managers such as hedge funds and other financial investors in the market are largely bearish, with the number
of bets that prices will fall outnumbering bets that they will rise, according to data released Friday by the U.S.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
In the physical market, cash prices for next-day delivery of gas at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded
at $2.67 a million Btus, below Friday's range of $2.7925-$2.86. Prices for physical gas at the Transco Z6 hub in New
York traded in a bid-offer range of $2.20-$3.00, compared with Friday's range of $2.85-$2.91.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 23, 2015 09:18 ET (13:18 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
032315 13:18 -- GMT
------
Natural Gas Technical Update - Bearish Gap Lower Open In Overnight Session
The April 15 natural gas contract rallied up to a 2.935 high in last Wednesday’s session but gave back most of the gains by Friday’s close settling the week at 2.786. For the week, the contract was up .059 (2.1%) trading in a fairly wide .255 range.
he April contract gapped under 10 and 40 day moving average support in the overnight session which turns the near term trend back down. Key support is a weekly low trend line between 2.680-2.700. A drop under this support would turn 2.400-2.450 into the next longer term support.
The 10 and 40 day moving averages between 2.770-2.780 are the first upside resistance today followed by last week’s 2.935 high.
Friday’s Commitment of Trader’s report showed the fund long position in the natural gas market increasing by 17% from the previous week. The funds were long 106,762 contracts, up 15,595 as of last Tuesday’s close.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Natural Gas Seasonal Price Trend Update - Heading Toward A Post-Winter Seasonal Low
The seasonal trend chart for the natural gas market shows the price trend in the market over the past 3 and 5 years.
The market should be nearing the first of two expected seasonal lows for 2015. While the market doesn't look like it has yet bottomed, current weakness should be the final price break before a low is set ahead of the summer cooling season.
A second and final seasonal low is expected in the August/September time frame. Over the past 3 and 5 years, the secondary seasonal low is typically the lowest price point for the year in the market and the optimal time to add to longer dated coverage.
Commitment of Trader's Report - Natural Gas Speculative Long Position Increases By 17%
The hedge funds added the their existing speculative long position in the natural gas market according to the Commitment of Trader's report released on Friday.
The report showed the fund long position up by 15,595 contracts to a net position of 106,762 contracts.
The funds keep trying to get long the natural gas market only to sell the position back out as prices fall to new lows.
The funds should be selling the natural gas market, not buying it.
The report showed the fund long position up by 15,595 contracts to a net position of 106,762 contracts.
The funds keep trying to get long the natural gas market only to sell the position back out as prices fall to new lows.
The funds should be selling the natural gas market, not buying it.
Friday, March 20, 2015
Dow Jones Natural Gas - Morning Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Gains on Forecasts For Late-Season Cold
By Christian Berthelsen
Natural gas prices jumped Friday as weather forecasts turned colder into early April, raising expectations for
late-season heating demand.
Natural gas for April delivery rose 8.2 cents, or 2.9%, to $2.895 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. The contract regained some of the ground lost Thursday after weekly inventory data from the U.S.
Energy Information Administration showed supplies fell less than expected.
Inventories fell by 45 billion cubic feet in the data released Thursday, slightly less than the 47-bcf average
decline projected by analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. Inventories are now 53% above year-ago
levels and 13% below the five-year average.
The market has been gaining recently as forecasts have turned colder toward the end of the heating season. That trend
appeared poised to continue Friday, with below-normal temperatures over much of the Northeast, a key demand region,
deepening toward the end of March and early April.
"U.S. natural gas is bouncing into the weekend, getting on up after being sucker-punched lower by yesterday's lesser
withdrawal," research consultancy Schneider Electric said in a note.
Still, robust production has kept the market in check, and analysts expect inventories to surge this spring and
summer when production growth continues and the warm weather limits demand.
In the physical market, cash prices for next-day delivery of gas at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded
at $2.85 a million British thermal units, up from Thursday's range of $2.77 to $2.87. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub
in New York last traded at $2.90 a million Btus, up from $2.825 to $2.85.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 20, 2015 09:54 ET (13:54 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
032015 13:54 -- GMT
------
By Christian Berthelsen
Natural gas prices jumped Friday as weather forecasts turned colder into early April, raising expectations for
late-season heating demand.
Natural gas for April delivery rose 8.2 cents, or 2.9%, to $2.895 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. The contract regained some of the ground lost Thursday after weekly inventory data from the U.S.
Energy Information Administration showed supplies fell less than expected.
Inventories fell by 45 billion cubic feet in the data released Thursday, slightly less than the 47-bcf average
decline projected by analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. Inventories are now 53% above year-ago
levels and 13% below the five-year average.
The market has been gaining recently as forecasts have turned colder toward the end of the heating season. That trend
appeared poised to continue Friday, with below-normal temperatures over much of the Northeast, a key demand region,
deepening toward the end of March and early April.
"U.S. natural gas is bouncing into the weekend, getting on up after being sucker-punched lower by yesterday's lesser
withdrawal," research consultancy Schneider Electric said in a note.
Still, robust production has kept the market in check, and analysts expect inventories to surge this spring and
summer when production growth continues and the warm weather limits demand.
In the physical market, cash prices for next-day delivery of gas at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded
at $2.85 a million British thermal units, up from Thursday's range of $2.77 to $2.87. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub
in New York last traded at $2.90 a million Btus, up from $2.825 to $2.85.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 20, 2015 09:54 ET (13:54 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
032015 13:54 -- GMT
------
Natural Gas Technical Update - Moving Average Support Holds On Thursday
The April 15 natural gas contract reversed back lower in Thursday’s session completely erasing the previous day’s gains some to settle at 2.813. Losses for the day came in at .107 or 3.6%.
The 10 and 40 day moving averages held as support at yesterday’s 2.776 low and need to be broken to turn the near term trend back down.
Wednesday’s 2.935 high extending up to 2.950 remains primary resistance. A breakout above 2.950 would turn the 3.045 February high into the next upside resistance.
The 10 day and 40 day moving averages at the 2.780-2.785 level today are the first area of support followed by the weekly low trend line currently at 2.690-2.700. Longer term support is the 2.589 contract low set in early-February.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Thursday, March 19, 2015
Dow Jones Natural Gas - End of Day Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Slides on Inventory Data
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices dropped Thursday after weekly inventory data showed that supplies fell less than
expected last week.
Natural gas for April delivery settled down 10.7 cents, or 3.7%, to $2.813 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange.
Natural-gas stockpiles fell by 45 billion cubic feet in the week ended March 13, the U.S. Energy Information
Administration said Thursday.
Analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had called for a drop of 47 bcf.
Inventories are now 53% above last year's unusually low level and 13% below the five-year average for this week.
"Even though it wasn't a big withdrawal, the market was expecting a little bit more than that," said Santiago Diaz, a
broker at INTL FCStone. Looking forward, he said, "it's more of a question of, what is the weather telling is? Is
winter going to linger?"
Prices settled at their highest level since Feb. 20 on Wednesday as forecasts called for unseasonably cold weather in
the coming weeks, which could boost demand for natural gas to power indoor heating. About half of U.S. households use
natural gas as their primary heating fuel.
But forecasts released Thursday were a bit more moderate.
"There's definitely a huge divergence between people that expect it to turn cold again...and those who think that
it's going to be warm," said Kyle Cooper, analyst at IAF Advisors in Houston. But even if temperatures are colder than
average, he noted, the average temperatures in late March and April aren't frigid.
"In the absence of strong winter-related support, natural-gas prices are exhibiting normal seasonal weakness," said
BNP Paribas SA in a note.
The small storage withdrawal reported this week suggests that next week's report could even show a slight build to
supplies, as weather-driven consumption fades, Mr. Cooper said.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 19, 2015 15:21 ET (19:21 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
031915 19:21 -- GMT
------
^^^^^^
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices dropped Thursday after weekly inventory data showed that supplies fell less than
expected last week.
Natural gas for April delivery settled down 10.7 cents, or 3.7%, to $2.813 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange.
Natural-gas stockpiles fell by 45 billion cubic feet in the week ended March 13, the U.S. Energy Information
Administration said Thursday.
Analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had called for a drop of 47 bcf.
Inventories are now 53% above last year's unusually low level and 13% below the five-year average for this week.
"Even though it wasn't a big withdrawal, the market was expecting a little bit more than that," said Santiago Diaz, a
broker at INTL FCStone. Looking forward, he said, "it's more of a question of, what is the weather telling is? Is
winter going to linger?"
Prices settled at their highest level since Feb. 20 on Wednesday as forecasts called for unseasonably cold weather in
the coming weeks, which could boost demand for natural gas to power indoor heating. About half of U.S. households use
natural gas as their primary heating fuel.
But forecasts released Thursday were a bit more moderate.
"There's definitely a huge divergence between people that expect it to turn cold again...and those who think that
it's going to be warm," said Kyle Cooper, analyst at IAF Advisors in Houston. But even if temperatures are colder than
average, he noted, the average temperatures in late March and April aren't frigid.
"In the absence of strong winter-related support, natural-gas prices are exhibiting normal seasonal weakness," said
BNP Paribas SA in a note.
The small storage withdrawal reported this week suggests that next week's report could even show a slight build to
supplies, as weather-driven consumption fades, Mr. Cooper said.
Write to Nicole Friedman at nicole.friedman@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 19, 2015 15:21 ET (19:21 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
031915 19:21 -- GMT
------
^^^^^^
EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report - 45 Withdrawal - Slightly Lower Than Expected
For the week ended
March 13:
EIA Withdrawal - 45 BCF
Last Year's Draw - 69 BCF
5 Yr Avg Draw - 45 BCF
Range of Estimates - 30 BCF to 55 BCF
Avg Estimate - 47 BCF
Total Gas in Storage - 1.467 TCF
EIA Withdrawal - 45 BCF
Last Year's Draw - 69 BCF
5 Yr Avg Draw - 45 BCF
Range of Estimates - 30 BCF to 55 BCF
Avg Estimate - 47 BCF
Total Gas in Storage - 1.467 TCF
Dow Jones Natural Gas - Morning Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Ticks Lower as Forecasts Shift
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices slipped from near-one-month highs Thursday on slightly warmer weather forecasts, which
could ease demand for the heating fuel.
Natural gas for April delivery recently traded down 4.6 cents, or 1.6%, to $2.874 a million British thermal units on
the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Prices settled at their highest level since Feb. 20 on Wednesday as forecasts called for unseasonably cold weather in
the coming weeks, which could boost demand for natural gas to power indoor heating. About half of U.S. households use
natural gas as their primary heating fuel.
But forecasts released Thursday were a bit more moderate. In the next six to 10 days, "today's forecast is generally
warmer or not as cold as the previous forecast across much of the nation," said private forecaster WSI Corp. in a note.
However, the outlook for the next 11 to 15 days still calls for colder-than-average weather in the eastern U.S.
Traders are also positioning ahead of weekly inventory data, which is due at 10:30 a.m. EDT. Traders and analysts
surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast that natural-gas storage levels fell by 47 billion cubic feet last week,
about on-par with the five-year average for this time of year.
If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of March 13 totaled 1.5 trillion cubic feet, 53% above levels from
a year ago and 13% below the five-year average for the same week.
"Unless today's number misses average street ideas of around 49 bcf by more than a 10 bcf margin, we don't expect
much price reaction," said energy-advisory firm Ritterbusch & Associates in a note.
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.8575/mmBtu, compared with
Wednesday's average of $2.7659. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York last traded between $2.60 and $3/mmBtu,
compared with Wednesday's average of $2.8270.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 19, 2015 09:07 ET (13:07 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
031915 13:07 -- GMT
------
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices slipped from near-one-month highs Thursday on slightly warmer weather forecasts, which
could ease demand for the heating fuel.
Natural gas for April delivery recently traded down 4.6 cents, or 1.6%, to $2.874 a million British thermal units on
the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Prices settled at their highest level since Feb. 20 on Wednesday as forecasts called for unseasonably cold weather in
the coming weeks, which could boost demand for natural gas to power indoor heating. About half of U.S. households use
natural gas as their primary heating fuel.
But forecasts released Thursday were a bit more moderate. In the next six to 10 days, "today's forecast is generally
warmer or not as cold as the previous forecast across much of the nation," said private forecaster WSI Corp. in a note.
However, the outlook for the next 11 to 15 days still calls for colder-than-average weather in the eastern U.S.
Traders are also positioning ahead of weekly inventory data, which is due at 10:30 a.m. EDT. Traders and analysts
surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast that natural-gas storage levels fell by 47 billion cubic feet last week,
about on-par with the five-year average for this time of year.
If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of March 13 totaled 1.5 trillion cubic feet, 53% above levels from
a year ago and 13% below the five-year average for the same week.
"Unless today's number misses average street ideas of around 49 bcf by more than a 10 bcf margin, we don't expect
much price reaction," said energy-advisory firm Ritterbusch & Associates in a note.
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.8575/mmBtu, compared with
Wednesday's average of $2.7659. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York last traded between $2.60 and $3/mmBtu,
compared with Wednesday's average of $2.8270.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 19, 2015 09:07 ET (13:07 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
031915 13:07 -- GMT
------
Natural Gas Technical Update - Market Faces Strong Selling Resistance
After trading down to a 2.775 early morning low on Wednesday, the April 15 natural gas contract finished the day near a 4-week high settling at 2.920, up .065 (2.2%).
The April contract has now closed higher the past two days after holding above weekly low trend line support on Monday’s 2.674 low. However, it faces heavy selling resistance first at yesterday’s 2.935 high extending up to 2.950 with following resistance at the 3.045 February high.
The 10 and 40 day moving averages between 2.780-2.790 area the first areas of support with longer term support at the lower trend line currently at 2.670-2.690. A close under this trend line would be a very bearish technical signal for the market.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Wednesday, March 18, 2015
Analysts' Estimates For Tomorrow's EIA Storage Report
DJ Analysts See 47-Billion-Cubic-Feet Drop in U.S. Natural Gas Inventories
By Timothy Puko
Analysts and traders expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to show natural gas inventories shrunk
last week by just 2 billion cubic feet more than average.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that storage levels fell by 47 billion cubic feet of
gas during the week ended March 13, according to the average forecast of 14 analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall
Street Journal.
The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data for the week on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
For the March 13 week, the median estimate is for a drop of 49 bcf. Estimates range from a decline of 30 bcf to a
decline of 55 bcf.
The estimate for March 13 is less than the 69 bcf drained from storage for the same week last year and more than the
45-bcf five-year average drain for that week.
If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of March 13 totaled 1.5 trillion cubic feet, 53% above levels from
a year ago and 13% below the five-year average for the same week.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 18, 2015 15:16 ET (19:16 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
031815 19:16 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
Analysts and traders expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to show natural gas inventories shrunk
last week by just 2 billion cubic feet more than average.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that storage levels fell by 47 billion cubic feet of
gas during the week ended March 13, according to the average forecast of 14 analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall
Street Journal.
The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data for the week on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
For the March 13 week, the median estimate is for a drop of 49 bcf. Estimates range from a decline of 30 bcf to a
decline of 55 bcf.
The estimate for March 13 is less than the 69 bcf drained from storage for the same week last year and more than the
45-bcf five-year average drain for that week.
If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of March 13 totaled 1.5 trillion cubic feet, 53% above levels from
a year ago and 13% below the five-year average for the same week.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 18, 2015 15:16 ET (19:16 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
031815 19:16 -- GMT
------
Dow Jones Natural Gas - End of Day Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Prices Rally on Colder Forecasts, Strong Demand
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas sprung to its highest point in nearly a month as traders grew more confident in forecasts showing
abnormally cool weather.
Natural gas for April delivery settled up 6.5 cents, or 2.3%, at $2.92 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange. The market had dipped as low as $2.775/mmBtu before turning positive late this morning.
Weather forecasts are divided about how strong a shot of unseasonably cool weather will be in the coming weeks. The
market initially traded lower on some signs that the cold wouldn't be so bad, reducing demand for natural gas heating
fuel.
But some traders put more weight on the forecasts that show even cooler temperatures than expected, said Aaron
Calder, senior market analyst at energy-consulting firm Gelber & Associates in Houston. Midday updates from weather
models did show heavier snowfall in the north on Friday and a "large push of cold air" late next week for the Midwest
and the East, WeatherBELL Analytics LLC said.
"Because (the weather forecasts) have been so wishy-washy, just the fact that they're cold for another day is
bullish," Mr. Calder added.
The rally got support from technical traders, he said. As the market approached its two-week high near $2.80/mmBtu,
technical traders bid up the price even more, expecting the momentum to keep futures rising. They did throughout the
afternoon.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 18, 2015 14:48 ET (18:48 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
031815 18:48 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas sprung to its highest point in nearly a month as traders grew more confident in forecasts showing
abnormally cool weather.
Natural gas for April delivery settled up 6.5 cents, or 2.3%, at $2.92 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange. The market had dipped as low as $2.775/mmBtu before turning positive late this morning.
Weather forecasts are divided about how strong a shot of unseasonably cool weather will be in the coming weeks. The
market initially traded lower on some signs that the cold wouldn't be so bad, reducing demand for natural gas heating
fuel.
But some traders put more weight on the forecasts that show even cooler temperatures than expected, said Aaron
Calder, senior market analyst at energy-consulting firm Gelber & Associates in Houston. Midday updates from weather
models did show heavier snowfall in the north on Friday and a "large push of cold air" late next week for the Midwest
and the East, WeatherBELL Analytics LLC said.
"Because (the weather forecasts) have been so wishy-washy, just the fact that they're cold for another day is
bullish," Mr. Calder added.
The rally got support from technical traders, he said. As the market approached its two-week high near $2.80/mmBtu,
technical traders bid up the price even more, expecting the momentum to keep futures rising. They did throughout the
afternoon.
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 18, 2015 14:48 ET (18:48 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
031815 18:48 -- GMT
------
Dow Jones Natural Gas - Morning Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Prices Retreating on Warmer Forecasts, Falling Demand
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas is retreating as warmer forecasts suggest falling demand.
Natural gas for April delivery is down 4.3 cents, or 1.5%, at $2.812 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. The market has given back about half of Tuesday's gains, which had been the second largest of the
year.
Commodity Weather Group LLC changed its forecast Wednesday to show a smaller pocket of unseasonably cool conditions
in the Northeast through the end of the month. About half of U.S. homes use natural gas for heat, and milder spring
weather leads to a dramatic dropoff in demand every year.
Without "strong weather-related support, natural-gas prices are exhibiting normal seasonal weakness and will likely
continue to decline," said Teri Viswanath, a natural-gas strategist at BNP Paribas SA in New York.
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.78/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday's
range of $2.76-$2.84. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York last traded at $2.85/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday's
range of $2.80 to $3.00.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 18, 2015 10:11 ET (14:11 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
031815 14:11 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas is retreating as warmer forecasts suggest falling demand.
Natural gas for April delivery is down 4.3 cents, or 1.5%, at $2.812 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. The market has given back about half of Tuesday's gains, which had been the second largest of the
year.
Commodity Weather Group LLC changed its forecast Wednesday to show a smaller pocket of unseasonably cool conditions
in the Northeast through the end of the month. About half of U.S. homes use natural gas for heat, and milder spring
weather leads to a dramatic dropoff in demand every year.
Without "strong weather-related support, natural-gas prices are exhibiting normal seasonal weakness and will likely
continue to decline," said Teri Viswanath, a natural-gas strategist at BNP Paribas SA in New York.
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.78/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday's
range of $2.76-$2.84. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York last traded at $2.85/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday's
range of $2.80 to $3.00.
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 18, 2015 10:11 ET (14:11 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
031815 14:11 -- GMT
------
Natural Gas Technical Update - Rectangle Forming On April 15 Contract
After holding above weekly low support just under the 2.700 level on Monday, the April 15 natural gas contract reversed course back higher on Tuesday moving back toward the upper end of the past 3 week trading range.
The rally on Tuesday topped out at a 2.858 intraday high holding below the 2.864 high set over the past two weeks.
With resistance holding for a third time, the market has tipped back lower in this morning’s early trade with the April contract trading back toward the 2.800 level.
Failure to clear weekly high resistance keeps the April contract in a sideways rectangle pattern with 2.660-2.680 being lower trend line support and 2.860-2.870 being upper resistance.
A breakout from this range is needed to determine the next move for the market. A downside breakout below 2.660-2.680 support would turn 2.400-2.450 into the next longer term support. While an upside breakout above 2.860-2.870 resistance would turn the 3.045 February high into the upside price objective.
Given the longer term trend in the market, the breakout from the rectangle will likely be to the downside under lower support.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
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