2014 Storage Injections Record High
Storage injections during 2014 have been record high with 1,808 Bcf (billion cubic feet) of gas put in storage from the first week of April to the first week of August. Injections have been 35% or 474 Bcf feet higher than injections made during a similar time frame over the past 5 years.
The deficit of natural gas currently in storage relative to the 5-year average narrowed from 54.7% the last week of March to 16.5% the first week of August.
EIA Peak Storage Estimate For 2014
The EIA has forecast in the August Short Term Energy Outlook that end of October storage in the U.S. would rise to 3,463 Bcf. If correct, peak storage for 2014 would fall 10% (388 Bcf) below the peak storage reached over the past 5 years.
There are 10 weeks left in the 2014 injection season. In order for the market to reach the EIA end of October storage forecast, an average of 83 Bcf will need to be injected per week.
Over the past 5 years, the average weekly injection over the upcoming 10 weeks was 68 Bcf per week. Injections for 2014 are going to need to remain record high to get storage up to forecasted levels by the end of October.
Storage Injections Coming In At The Lower End of Pre-Report Estimates
One of the bullish factors in the natural gas market over the past 6 weeks has been the weekly storage reports. The weekly storage numbers have been record high, but the actual storage injections have come in at the lower end of pre-report analysts’ estimates.
Over the past 6 weeks, the weekly storage injection has come in at the lower end of pre-report estimates during 5 out of the 6 weeks the exception being 08/15.
During 3 out of the past 4 weeks, the weekly injection has fallen short of the 83 Bcf per week average that needs to be injected per week to reach the EIA end of October storage forecast.
If upcoming storage injections over the upcoming 10 weeks fall short of the 83 Bcf per week level, it could be a bullish factor for the market.
natural gas
Friday, August 29, 2014
Natural Gas Technical Update - Winter 14-15 and Summer 15 Strips Nearing "Breakout" Resistance
Winter 14-15 Strip
The winter 14-15 natural gas strip (November 14-March 15) has moved back to and slightly above the previous high of 4.182 set earlier in the month.
The strip is showing bullish signals but has yet to decisively breakout to new price highs.
The trend may be ready to turn back lower if recent gains cannot extended in early trade next week.
Similar to the winter strip, the summer 15 strip (April 15-October 15) is showing bullish signals this week after moving above the former 3.899 high set earlier in August.
The summer strip has been in a strong upward trend since last bottoming at a 3.766 low in mid-August which bullishly held above the previous 3.730 low from July.
Failure to rally higher early next week could be a warning of a near term trend turn back lower.
Dow Jones - Natural Gas Rallies To A New 6-Week High
DJ Natural Gas Rises to Six-Week High Ahead of Hotter Weather
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices gained for a third straight session as forecasts for hotter weather drove expectations
of higher demand in the coming weeks.
Natural gas for October delivery settled up 2.1 cents, or 0.5%, at $4.065 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange, the highest price since July 16. Prices gained 4.7% this week and 5.8% this month.
Forecasts are calling for a bout of late-summer heat in the southern and eastern U.S. heading into the first week of
September, which is expected to boost demand for gas-powered electricity to run air-conditioning units.
"Weather patterns have been more favorable recently" to natural-gas demand, said NatGasWeather.com in a note, but
"the end of summer is upon us. ...Prices are not looking too far into the future."
Storage data released Thursday showed that stockpiles grew by 75 billion cubic feet in the week ended Aug. 22, less
than the 77 bcf that analysts had expected.
Inventories, which were depleted by record demand for the heating fuel last winter, are still 17% below the five-year
average for the week.
Natural-gas production in the lower 48 states grew by 0.6% in June from the prior month, a smaller pace of growth
than the 1.2% gain seen in May, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Friday.
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex October $4.065 +2.1c
Nymex November $4.116 +1.5c
Nymex December $4.197 +1.1c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS DAY
El Paso Perm $3.895-$3.94 $3.84-$3.90
El Paso SJ $3.8825-$3.93 $3.92-$3.95
Henry Hub $3.99-$4.08 $3.99-$4.0375
Katy $3.99-$4.05 $3.97-$4.01
SoCal $4.13-$4.20 $4.12-$4.28
Tex East M3 $2.335-$2.56 $1.80-$2.20
Transco 65 $3.9725-$4.075 $3.97-$4.015
Transco Z6 $2.44-$2.55 $1.85-$2.07
Waha $3.94-$3.995 $3.90-$3.955
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 29, 2014 15:12 ET (19:12 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
082914 19:12 -- GMT
------
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices gained for a third straight session as forecasts for hotter weather drove expectations
of higher demand in the coming weeks.
Natural gas for October delivery settled up 2.1 cents, or 0.5%, at $4.065 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange, the highest price since July 16. Prices gained 4.7% this week and 5.8% this month.
Forecasts are calling for a bout of late-summer heat in the southern and eastern U.S. heading into the first week of
September, which is expected to boost demand for gas-powered electricity to run air-conditioning units.
"Weather patterns have been more favorable recently" to natural-gas demand, said NatGasWeather.com in a note, but
"the end of summer is upon us. ...Prices are not looking too far into the future."
Storage data released Thursday showed that stockpiles grew by 75 billion cubic feet in the week ended Aug. 22, less
than the 77 bcf that analysts had expected.
Inventories, which were depleted by record demand for the heating fuel last winter, are still 17% below the five-year
average for the week.
Natural-gas production in the lower 48 states grew by 0.6% in June from the prior month, a smaller pace of growth
than the 1.2% gain seen in May, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Friday.
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex October $4.065 +2.1c
Nymex November $4.116 +1.5c
Nymex December $4.197 +1.1c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS DAY
El Paso Perm $3.895-$3.94 $3.84-$3.90
El Paso SJ $3.8825-$3.93 $3.92-$3.95
Henry Hub $3.99-$4.08 $3.99-$4.0375
Katy $3.99-$4.05 $3.97-$4.01
SoCal $4.13-$4.20 $4.12-$4.28
Tex East M3 $2.335-$2.56 $1.80-$2.20
Transco 65 $3.9725-$4.075 $3.97-$4.015
Transco Z6 $2.44-$2.55 $1.85-$2.07
Waha $3.94-$3.995 $3.90-$3.955
Write to Nicole Friedman at nicole.friedman@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 29, 2014 15:12 ET (19:12 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
082914 19:12 -- GMT
------
Dow Jones - Morning Natural Gas Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Steady on Hot-Weather Expectations
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices eased slightly but held above $4 a million British thermal units Friday on expectations
that hotter weather would drive demand through the end of the month.
Natural gas for October delivery recently fell 0.5 cent, or 0.1%, to $4.039 a million British thermal units on the
New York Mercantile Exchange.
Forecasts are calling for a bout of late-summer heat in the southern and eastern U.S. heading into the first week of
September, which is expected to boost demand for gas-powered electricity to run air-conditioning units. Oklahoma and
Missouri could see temperatures in the high 90s, and areas in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast could hit the high 80s or
low 90s, said forecaster WSI Corp., based in Andover, Mass.
"The market seems keen to respond to the hot late-summer weather that has appeared," said Breanne Dougherty, analyst
at Societe Generale, in a note.
Prices rose to a six-week high Thursday after government storage data showed that stockpiles grew by 75 billion cubic
feet in the week ended Aug. 22, less than the 77 bcf that analysts had expected.
Inventories, which were depleted by record demand for the heating fuel last winter, are still 17% below the five-year
average for the week.
Natural gas for next-day delivery at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana recently traded at $4.01/mmBtu, according
to Intercontinental Exchange Inc., compared with Thursday's average of $4.0217/mmBtu.
Natural gas for next-day delivery at Transcontinental Zone 6 in New York traded between $2.45 and $2.68/mmBtu,
compared with $1.9518/mmBtu Thursday.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 29, 2014 09:17 ET (13:17 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
082914 13:17 -- GMT
------
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices eased slightly but held above $4 a million British thermal units Friday on expectations
that hotter weather would drive demand through the end of the month.
Natural gas for October delivery recently fell 0.5 cent, or 0.1%, to $4.039 a million British thermal units on the
New York Mercantile Exchange.
Forecasts are calling for a bout of late-summer heat in the southern and eastern U.S. heading into the first week of
September, which is expected to boost demand for gas-powered electricity to run air-conditioning units. Oklahoma and
Missouri could see temperatures in the high 90s, and areas in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast could hit the high 80s or
low 90s, said forecaster WSI Corp., based in Andover, Mass.
"The market seems keen to respond to the hot late-summer weather that has appeared," said Breanne Dougherty, analyst
at Societe Generale, in a note.
Prices rose to a six-week high Thursday after government storage data showed that stockpiles grew by 75 billion cubic
feet in the week ended Aug. 22, less than the 77 bcf that analysts had expected.
Inventories, which were depleted by record demand for the heating fuel last winter, are still 17% below the five-year
average for the week.
Natural gas for next-day delivery at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana recently traded at $4.01/mmBtu, according
to Intercontinental Exchange Inc., compared with Thursday's average of $4.0217/mmBtu.
Natural gas for next-day delivery at Transcontinental Zone 6 in New York traded between $2.45 and $2.68/mmBtu,
compared with $1.9518/mmBtu Thursday.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 29, 2014 09:17 ET (13:17 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
082914 13:17 -- GMT
------
Natural Gas Technical Update - Key Resistance Holds In Thursday's Trade
The October 14 natural gas contract rallied up to a new 6-week high of 4.101 in Thursday’s trade but was unable to break out above week chart trend line resistance.
This trend line was broken as support in mid-July near the 4.000 level. The subsequent rally back higher in retest of former support as resistance held on Thursday and is a bearish technical signal.
The October contract finished yesterday’s session at 4.044, up .041 for the day.
With the October contract currently trading above the 10 and 40 day moving averages, the trend at this point remains sideways to higher. However, a breakout above weekly chart trend line resistance at 4.100 is needed to turn the longer term trend back higher.
The 40 day moving at 3.950 followed closely behind by the 10 day average at 3.940 will remain primary support in upcoming trade. A close under both averages will turn the near term trend back down with following support at 3.900 and the 3.885 weekly low.
Longer term supports are the 3.740-3.760 weekly lows posted over the past month. A drop below 3.740 would keep turn the 3.589 contract low from last November into the next downside objective.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Crude Oil Technical Update - Bullish Breakout From Two Week Sideways Range
The October 14 crude oil contract on Thursday broke out to the upside from a near two week sideways trading range. This could be the beginning of a trend change back higher.
The October contract closed Thursday’s session just above weekly chart resistance settling at 94.55, up .67.
Former resistance broken yesterday between 94.35-94.45 now becomes key support as a close back under this level today could indicate the breakout has failed.
Longer term support levels are the 10 day moving average at 93.80 followed by the 93.05 weekly low.
If today’s breakout holds, the current overnight high of 95.15 is the first area of resistance followed by the 200 day moving average at 96.40. A close back above the 200 day average would turn the longer term trend back higher.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Thursday, August 28, 2014
Natural Gas Technical Update - Weekly Chart Trend Line Resistance Holds At Today's High
A quick look at today's price action in the natural gas market looking at the weekly continuation chart above and the 10 minute chart for the October 14 contract to the bottom left. I can't get these two charts to align. Anyway, the weekly chart shows the long term trend line support that was broken in mid-July near the 4.000 level. The market bottomed at a 3.724 low before rebounding back higher.
The October contract spiked higher today following release of the weekly storage report which came in a few Bcf lower than estimates. The spike lifted the spot October 14 contract to a 4.101 intraday high holding below former trend line support as resistance. This was a very important retest of former support as resistance.
The ensuing sell off from the 4.101 intraday high dropped the October contract to a 3.973 low before stabilizing and moving back higher to the current 4.055 level.
The sell off today following the spike up to 4.100 trend line resistance shows how important this resistance is for the market.
A close back above 4.100 basis the October 14 contract should be further indication the natural gas market has bottomed.
If October contract fails to clear 4.100 resistance, the market should tip back lower possibly retesting weekly chart support between 3.724-3.727. The outcome should be known over the next few days of trade.
Dow Jones - End of Day Natural Gas Commentary
DJ Natural-Gas Prices Break $4 on Smaller-Than-Expected Surplus
By Timothy Puko
NEW YORK--Natural-gas front-month prices closed above $4 a million British thermal units for the first time in six
weeks, boosted by summer heat and a smaller-than-expected surplus.
The front-month October contract settled up 4.1 cents, or 1%, to $4.044/mmBtu on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
October had closed above $4/mmBtu Wednesday, too, when the cheaper September contract was still trading. It expired
Wednesday at $3.957. The front-month price is now up 7%, rising steadily since its low close of the month on Aug. 15.
Late-arriving heat created the momentum since then. Summer heat makes it more likely people will use their air
conditioners, consuming more gas-fired electricity, and mild weather had been suppressing demand earlier in the summer.
Now, moderately above-normal temperatures are likely to spread across the Midwest, East and South through the first
week of September, according to Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Md. It predicted higher temperatures in the
Thursday update to its 6-10 day forecast.
Gas prices also got a boost from the federal government's weekly storage update. Producers added 75 billion cubic
feet of gas to storage for the week ended Aug. 22, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. The addition was 2
bcf smaller than the 77 bcf consensus average expectations of analysts and brokers in The Wall Street Journal survey.
"Everybody has been waiting to buy into it and they needed something beyond the fundamental aspect to get that
going," said Todd Garner, managing partner at hedge fund Protec Energy Partners LLC based in Boca Raton, Fla., which
has $100 million spread between natural gas, oil and refined petroleum products. "Next week, if we can hold that $4,
then we really have momentum going. Then people can jump on the bandwagon."
But analysts warned Thursday that there are long-term trends fighting against that momentum. A surplus of 75 bcf
suggests the market was oversupplied by 17 bcf last week, said Aaron Calder, senior market analyst at energy-consulting
firm Gelber & Associates in Houston. That put price pressure on later-month contracts in the early afternoon, Mr.
Calder said.
"Week-to-week summer weather changes should not distract from the much, much bigger question of who consumes all the
incremental gas production this year and next," analysts at the energy investment bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.
said in a note. "Our gas supply forecast keeps moving up with no corresponding demand change."
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex October $4.044 4.1c
Nymex November $4.101 3.2c
Nymex December $4.186 2.6c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS DAY
El Paso Perm $3.84-$3.90 $3.90-$3.96
El Paso SJ $3.92-$3.95 $3.95-$3.98
Henry Hub $3.99-$4.0375 $3.965-$4.00
Katy $3.97-$4.01 $3.99-$4.02
SoCal $4.12-$4.28 $4.12-$4.34
Tex East M3 $1.80-$2.20 $2.50-$2.66
Transco 65 $3.97-$4.015 $3.96-$3.99
Transco Z6 $1.85-$2.07 $2.72-$2.83
Waha $3.90-$3.955 $3.94-$3.95
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 28, 2014 15:39 ET (19:39 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
082814 19:39 -- GMT
------
^^^^^^
By Timothy Puko
NEW YORK--Natural-gas front-month prices closed above $4 a million British thermal units for the first time in six
weeks, boosted by summer heat and a smaller-than-expected surplus.
The front-month October contract settled up 4.1 cents, or 1%, to $4.044/mmBtu on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
October had closed above $4/mmBtu Wednesday, too, when the cheaper September contract was still trading. It expired
Wednesday at $3.957. The front-month price is now up 7%, rising steadily since its low close of the month on Aug. 15.
Late-arriving heat created the momentum since then. Summer heat makes it more likely people will use their air
conditioners, consuming more gas-fired electricity, and mild weather had been suppressing demand earlier in the summer.
Now, moderately above-normal temperatures are likely to spread across the Midwest, East and South through the first
week of September, according to Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Md. It predicted higher temperatures in the
Thursday update to its 6-10 day forecast.
Gas prices also got a boost from the federal government's weekly storage update. Producers added 75 billion cubic
feet of gas to storage for the week ended Aug. 22, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. The addition was 2
bcf smaller than the 77 bcf consensus average expectations of analysts and brokers in The Wall Street Journal survey.
"Everybody has been waiting to buy into it and they needed something beyond the fundamental aspect to get that
going," said Todd Garner, managing partner at hedge fund Protec Energy Partners LLC based in Boca Raton, Fla., which
has $100 million spread between natural gas, oil and refined petroleum products. "Next week, if we can hold that $4,
then we really have momentum going. Then people can jump on the bandwagon."
But analysts warned Thursday that there are long-term trends fighting against that momentum. A surplus of 75 bcf
suggests the market was oversupplied by 17 bcf last week, said Aaron Calder, senior market analyst at energy-consulting
firm Gelber & Associates in Houston. That put price pressure on later-month contracts in the early afternoon, Mr.
Calder said.
"Week-to-week summer weather changes should not distract from the much, much bigger question of who consumes all the
incremental gas production this year and next," analysts at the energy investment bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.
said in a note. "Our gas supply forecast keeps moving up with no corresponding demand change."
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex October $4.044 4.1c
Nymex November $4.101 3.2c
Nymex December $4.186 2.6c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS DAY
El Paso Perm $3.84-$3.90 $3.90-$3.96
El Paso SJ $3.92-$3.95 $3.95-$3.98
Henry Hub $3.99-$4.0375 $3.965-$4.00
Katy $3.97-$4.01 $3.99-$4.02
SoCal $4.12-$4.28 $4.12-$4.34
Tex East M3 $1.80-$2.20 $2.50-$2.66
Transco 65 $3.97-$4.015 $3.96-$3.99
Transco Z6 $1.85-$2.07 $2.72-$2.83
Waha $3.90-$3.955 $3.94-$3.95
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 28, 2014 15:39 ET (19:39 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
082814 19:39 -- GMT
------
^^^^^^
Dow Jones - Post Report Natural Gas Commentary
DJ Natural-Gas Prices Rise on Smaller-Than-Expected Surplus
By Timothy Puko
NEW YORK-- Natural-gas futures are inching up Thursday after a weekly stockpile report showed a smaller surplus than
expected.
Producers added 75 billion cubic feet of gas to storage for the week ended Aug. 22, the U.S. Energy Information
Administration said. The addition was 2 bcf smaller than the 77 bcf consensus average expectations of by analysts and
brokers in The Wall Street Journal survey.
Natural gas for August delivery immediately added 1.8% after the data release, on top of gains from early-morning
trading. The market pulled back nearly all of that spike, but is still rising on the day, recently trading up 6 cents,
or 1.5%, to $4.063 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Traders use the EIA update to gauge how quickly stockpiles are recovering from high demand that drained them to
11-year lows this past winter. Last week's addition refilled stockpiles to 2.6 trillion cubic feet, within 17% of the
five-year average level for that week of the year. It had been at less than half of the average at the start of spring.
The addition wasn't far enough off of the expectation to create a major move, said Aaron Calder, senior market
analyst at energy-consulting firm Gelber & Associates in Houston. It also fits with the recent trend in prices, leaving
little leeway to go higher, he added.
Gas is up 7.1% since Aug. 18. A lot of that rise has come from late-arriving heat, meaning people are likely to use
their air conditioners more, consuming more gas-fired electricity. But the price has also got a boost after the
September contract expired Wednesday and front-month trading moved to the more expensive October contract.
"It just seemed like the market was a little tuckered (Thursday) after it's been kind of bouncing," Mr. Calder said.
"I think we'll have to spend some time here before we move further."
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 28, 2014 11:03 ET (15:03 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
082814 15:03 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
NEW YORK-- Natural-gas futures are inching up Thursday after a weekly stockpile report showed a smaller surplus than
expected.
Producers added 75 billion cubic feet of gas to storage for the week ended Aug. 22, the U.S. Energy Information
Administration said. The addition was 2 bcf smaller than the 77 bcf consensus average expectations of by analysts and
brokers in The Wall Street Journal survey.
Natural gas for August delivery immediately added 1.8% after the data release, on top of gains from early-morning
trading. The market pulled back nearly all of that spike, but is still rising on the day, recently trading up 6 cents,
or 1.5%, to $4.063 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Traders use the EIA update to gauge how quickly stockpiles are recovering from high demand that drained them to
11-year lows this past winter. Last week's addition refilled stockpiles to 2.6 trillion cubic feet, within 17% of the
five-year average level for that week of the year. It had been at less than half of the average at the start of spring.
The addition wasn't far enough off of the expectation to create a major move, said Aaron Calder, senior market
analyst at energy-consulting firm Gelber & Associates in Houston. It also fits with the recent trend in prices, leaving
little leeway to go higher, he added.
Gas is up 7.1% since Aug. 18. A lot of that rise has come from late-arriving heat, meaning people are likely to use
their air conditioners more, consuming more gas-fired electricity. But the price has also got a boost after the
September contract expired Wednesday and front-month trading moved to the more expensive October contract.
"It just seemed like the market was a little tuckered (Thursday) after it's been kind of bouncing," Mr. Calder said.
"I think we'll have to spend some time here before we move further."
Write to Timothy Puko at timothy.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 28, 2014 11:03 ET (15:03 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
082814 15:03 -- GMT
------
75 Bcf Injection - Lower End of Estimates
For the week ended
Aug 22:
EIA Injection - 75 BCF
Last Year's Injection - 65 BCF
5 Yr Avg Injection - 58 BCF
Range of Estimates - 73 BCF to 83 BCF
Avg Estimate - 77 BCF
Total Gas in Storage - 2.630 TCF
EIA Injection - 75 BCF
Last Year's Injection - 65 BCF
5 Yr Avg Injection - 58 BCF
Range of Estimates - 73 BCF to 83 BCF
Avg Estimate - 77 BCF
Total Gas in Storage - 2.630 TCF
Dow Jones - Morning Natural Gas Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Rises on Warming Weather Forecasts and New Contract
By Timothy Puko
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices climbed above the $4 mark Thursday as momentum builds around a late burst of summer heat
and the switch to a new front-month contract.
Natural gas for October delivery is up 3.5 cents, or 0.9%, at $4.038 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. It is the highest front-month price in six weeks and the first time gas has broken out of a
30-cent trading range during that time.
A lot of the gains come from switching to October as the front-month contract. It has peaked above $4/mmBtu in the
two prior sessions while September didn't, expiring Wednesday at $3.957.
The front-month contract has been gaining momentum for two weeks, largely from late-arriving heat in what had been a
mild summer. Summer heat makes it more likely people will use air conditioners, consuming more gas-fired electricity.
Gas is now up nearly 7% since Aug. 18. Moderately above-normal temperatures are likely to spread across the Midwest,
East and South through the first week of September, according to Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Md., which
added higher temperatures to its six-to-10 day forecast overnight.
"We've had enough bullish news" to keep pushing up the price just as the contract switched, said Breanne Dougherty,
Societe Generale SA analyst. "Once (the gas market) starts getting a little bit of the taste of the bullishness, it's
going to take a little more of it until it's told to go bear."
Ms. Dougherty and others warned that the gradual uplift isn't likely to last. The peak summer-demand season is past,
and the heat isn't strong enough to spur substantial demand, analysts and meteorologists said. Real-time figures on gas
consumption at power plants hasn't shown a notable increase in the past week, Ms. Dougherty said.
Record production is also coming strong. The federal government's weekly report on natural gas stockpiles comes out
at 10:30 a.m. ET, and traders expect it to show a 77 billion-cubic-feet surplus, according to a Wall Street Journal
survey. That addition would be a third larger than the five-week average addition for that week of the year.
"Week-to-week summer weather changes should not distract from the much, much bigger question of who consumes all the
incremental gas production this year and next," analysts at the energy investment bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.
said in a note. "Our gas supply forecast keeps moving up with no corresponding demand change."
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $4.0375/mmBtu, compared with
Thursday's range of $3.965 to $4.00. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York traded in a bid-ask range of
$2.08/mmBtu to $2.24/mmBtu, compared with Thursday's range of $2.72 to $2.83.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 28, 2014 09:50 ET (13:50 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
082814 13:50 -- GMT
By Timothy Puko
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices climbed above the $4 mark Thursday as momentum builds around a late burst of summer heat
and the switch to a new front-month contract.
Natural gas for October delivery is up 3.5 cents, or 0.9%, at $4.038 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. It is the highest front-month price in six weeks and the first time gas has broken out of a
30-cent trading range during that time.
A lot of the gains come from switching to October as the front-month contract. It has peaked above $4/mmBtu in the
two prior sessions while September didn't, expiring Wednesday at $3.957.
The front-month contract has been gaining momentum for two weeks, largely from late-arriving heat in what had been a
mild summer. Summer heat makes it more likely people will use air conditioners, consuming more gas-fired electricity.
Gas is now up nearly 7% since Aug. 18. Moderately above-normal temperatures are likely to spread across the Midwest,
East and South through the first week of September, according to Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Md., which
added higher temperatures to its six-to-10 day forecast overnight.
"We've had enough bullish news" to keep pushing up the price just as the contract switched, said Breanne Dougherty,
Societe Generale SA analyst. "Once (the gas market) starts getting a little bit of the taste of the bullishness, it's
going to take a little more of it until it's told to go bear."
Ms. Dougherty and others warned that the gradual uplift isn't likely to last. The peak summer-demand season is past,
and the heat isn't strong enough to spur substantial demand, analysts and meteorologists said. Real-time figures on gas
consumption at power plants hasn't shown a notable increase in the past week, Ms. Dougherty said.
Record production is also coming strong. The federal government's weekly report on natural gas stockpiles comes out
at 10:30 a.m. ET, and traders expect it to show a 77 billion-cubic-feet surplus, according to a Wall Street Journal
survey. That addition would be a third larger than the five-week average addition for that week of the year.
"Week-to-week summer weather changes should not distract from the much, much bigger question of who consumes all the
incremental gas production this year and next," analysts at the energy investment bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.
said in a note. "Our gas supply forecast keeps moving up with no corresponding demand change."
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $4.0375/mmBtu, compared with
Thursday's range of $3.965 to $4.00. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York traded in a bid-ask range of
$2.08/mmBtu to $2.24/mmBtu, compared with Thursday's range of $2.72 to $2.83.
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 28, 2014 09:50 ET (13:50 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
082814 13:50 -- GMT
Natural Gas Technical Update - 4.040-4.100 "Breakout" Resistance
The new front month October 14 natural gas contract broke out and closed above the 40 day moving average for the first time since June 18th, just 2 days after the current 2014 high was set.
In Wednesday’s session, the October contract gained .054 (1.3%) settling at a new 6-week high of 4.003.
The near term trend remains up with formidable resistance expected between 4.040-4.100. 4.041 is the weekly high set two weeks ago followed by 4.100 which is a former weekly trend line support.
This trend line was broken in mid-July near the 4.000 level resulting in a further sell off to an eventual 3.724 low. A close back above 4.100 is needed to turn the longer term trend back higher.
The 40 day moving average broken as resistance yesterday now becomes the first area of support today at 3.960 followed by the 10 day average at 3.915.
A drop back under these two average would turn the near term trend back down with following support at the 3.740-3.760 weekly lows and the 3.589 contract low posted last November.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Crude Oil Technical Update - Short Term Trend Following Index Is Now Bullish
The crude oil market remains locked in a sideways range that now enters into its ninth day of trade.
The spot October 14 contract has had several breakout attempts over the past 2 days but has not been able to move above resistance at the lower-94.00 area. It topped out at a 94.35 high on Tuesday followed by a 94.24 high on Wednesday. A breakout and close above 94.25-94.45 resistance would likely indicate the market trend has turned back up.
The 200 day moving average currently at 96.40 would become the next upside objective if the breakout above lower-94.00 resistance occurs.
Support over the past 8 days has been slowly rising beginning at the 92.50 low set last week but coming in between 93.36-93.45 over the past two days.
If 92.50 support is broken, the 91.24 spot contract low for 2014 will become the next downside support.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish (turned higher yesterday)
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
Dow Jones - End of Day Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Climbs to Two-Week High on Rising Demand
By Timothy Puko
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices rose Wednesday to the highest point in two weeks
as summer heat pushed up demand.
The front-month September delivery contract gained 4.6 cents, or 1.2%, to
$3.957 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the
highest closing price since Aug. 12. The September contract expired at the
close.
The October contract ended at a one-month high of $4.003/mmBtu, up 5.4 cents
or 1.4%.
Both contracts flip-flopped around unchanged on mixed weather signals,
analysts said. Though most forecasts show a spurt of summer heat covering large
parts of the country through early September, there are predictions of rain and
cool Canadian fronts that could break up or limit some of the heat in the East.
Summer heat makes it more likely people will use their air conditioners,
consuming more gas-fired electricity. Unseasonably high temperatures and
humidity in parts of the Midwest have led to strong spot trading, boosting
prices on the futures curve, Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy-advisory firm
Ritterbusch & Associates, said in a note.
"If this is something that was really moving things, we would have burst
through $4," said John Woods, president of JJ Woods Associates and a Nymex
floor trader. "People accept that there's a rally, but they're picking their
spots."
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 27, 2014 15:21 ET (19:21 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
082714 19:21 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices rose Wednesday to the highest point in two weeks
as summer heat pushed up demand.
The front-month September delivery contract gained 4.6 cents, or 1.2%, to
$3.957 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the
highest closing price since Aug. 12. The September contract expired at the
close.
The October contract ended at a one-month high of $4.003/mmBtu, up 5.4 cents
or 1.4%.
Both contracts flip-flopped around unchanged on mixed weather signals,
analysts said. Though most forecasts show a spurt of summer heat covering large
parts of the country through early September, there are predictions of rain and
cool Canadian fronts that could break up or limit some of the heat in the East.
Summer heat makes it more likely people will use their air conditioners,
consuming more gas-fired electricity. Unseasonably high temperatures and
humidity in parts of the Midwest have led to strong spot trading, boosting
prices on the futures curve, Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy-advisory firm
Ritterbusch & Associates, said in a note.
"If this is something that was really moving things, we would have burst
through $4," said John Woods, president of JJ Woods Associates and a Nymex
floor trader. "People accept that there's a rally, but they're picking their
spots."
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 27, 2014 15:21 ET (19:21 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
082714 19:21 -- GMT
------
Dow Jones - Analysts' Estimates For Tomorrow's Weekly Storage Report
DJ Analysts See 77 Billion Cubic Feet Added to U.S. Natural Gas Inventories
By Timothy Puko
Analysts and traders expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to
show natural gas inventory additions were a third larger last week than they
usually are at that time of year.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that storage
levels rose by 77 billion cubic feet of gas during the week ended Aug. 22,
according to the average forecast of 19 analysts and brokers surveyed by The
Wall Street Journal.
The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data for the week on Thursday at
10:30 a.m. EDT.
For the Aug. 22 week, the median estimate is for an addition of 78 bcf.
Estimates range from an increase of 73 bcf to an increase of 83 bcf.
The estimate for Aug. 22 is more than the 65 bcf added to storage for the
same week last year and the 58-bcf five-year average injection for that week.
If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of Aug. 22 totaled 2.6
trillion cubic feet, 16% below levels from a year ago and 16% below the
five-year average for the same week.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 27, 2014 11:55 ET (15:55 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
082714 15:55 -- GMT
By Timothy Puko
Analysts and traders expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to
show natural gas inventory additions were a third larger last week than they
usually are at that time of year.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that storage
levels rose by 77 billion cubic feet of gas during the week ended Aug. 22,
according to the average forecast of 19 analysts and brokers surveyed by The
Wall Street Journal.
The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data for the week on Thursday at
10:30 a.m. EDT.
For the Aug. 22 week, the median estimate is for an addition of 78 bcf.
Estimates range from an increase of 73 bcf to an increase of 83 bcf.
The estimate for Aug. 22 is more than the 65 bcf added to storage for the
same week last year and the 58-bcf five-year average injection for that week.
If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of Aug. 22 totaled 2.6
trillion cubic feet, 16% below levels from a year ago and 16% below the
five-year average for the same week.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 27, 2014 11:55 ET (15:55 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
082714 15:55 -- GMT
Dow Jones - Natural Gas Morning Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Rising on Warming Weather
By Timothy Puko
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices are rising slightly Wednesday as summer heat
both this week and next have traders expecting an increase in demand.
Natural gas for September delivery is up 5.9 cents, or 1.5%, at $3.970 a
million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The more
actively traded October contract crested over $4 for the second straight
session, recently trading is up 5.9 cents, or 1.5%, to $4.008/mmBtu. The
September contract expires at close.
Weather Services International in Andover, Mass., issued a heat alert for the
lower Midwest and the southern plains. Excessive heat and humidity could last
two to three days, pushing into the 90 degrees Fahrenheit range in cities
including St. Louis and Oklahoma City, it said.
That kind of heat will likely spread next week, according to MDA Weather
Services. About half the country, from West Texas to Upstate New York, could
see temperatures as much as five-degrees-Fahrenheit above normal, it said.
Summer heat makes it more likely people will use their air conditioners,
consuming more gas-fired electricity. And the near-term heat has led to strong
spot trading, boosting prices on the futures curve, Jim Ritterbusch, president
of energy-advisory firm Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note.
The heat, however, probably isn't severe enough to lead to any massive price
gains, analysts and traders said. Several expect incremental gains with prices
narrowly over $4/mmBtu. Record domestic gas production has led to a record pace
for rebuilding the nation's stockpile, and it is too late in the season for a
few weeks of above-average temperatures to get people fearful of a shortage
going into the winter, traders said.
"If this is something that was really moving things, we would have burst
through $4," said John Woods, president of JJ Woods Associates and a Nymex
floor trader. "People accept that there's a rally, but they're picking their
spots."
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded
at $4.00/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday's range of $3.915-$3.98. Cash prices at
the Transco Z6 hub in New York traded in a bid-ask range of $2.58/mmBtu to
$2.75/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday's range of $2.85 to $2.95.
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 27, 2014 09:49 ET (13:49 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
082714 13:49 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices are rising slightly Wednesday as summer heat
both this week and next have traders expecting an increase in demand.
Natural gas for September delivery is up 5.9 cents, or 1.5%, at $3.970 a
million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The more
actively traded October contract crested over $4 for the second straight
session, recently trading is up 5.9 cents, or 1.5%, to $4.008/mmBtu. The
September contract expires at close.
Weather Services International in Andover, Mass., issued a heat alert for the
lower Midwest and the southern plains. Excessive heat and humidity could last
two to three days, pushing into the 90 degrees Fahrenheit range in cities
including St. Louis and Oklahoma City, it said.
That kind of heat will likely spread next week, according to MDA Weather
Services. About half the country, from West Texas to Upstate New York, could
see temperatures as much as five-degrees-Fahrenheit above normal, it said.
Summer heat makes it more likely people will use their air conditioners,
consuming more gas-fired electricity. And the near-term heat has led to strong
spot trading, boosting prices on the futures curve, Jim Ritterbusch, president
of energy-advisory firm Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note.
The heat, however, probably isn't severe enough to lead to any massive price
gains, analysts and traders said. Several expect incremental gains with prices
narrowly over $4/mmBtu. Record domestic gas production has led to a record pace
for rebuilding the nation's stockpile, and it is too late in the season for a
few weeks of above-average temperatures to get people fearful of a shortage
going into the winter, traders said.
"If this is something that was really moving things, we would have burst
through $4," said John Woods, president of JJ Woods Associates and a Nymex
floor trader. "People accept that there's a rally, but they're picking their
spots."
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded
at $4.00/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday's range of $3.915-$3.98. Cash prices at
the Transco Z6 hub in New York traded in a bid-ask range of $2.58/mmBtu to
$2.75/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday's range of $2.85 to $2.95.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 27, 2014 09:49 ET (13:49 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
082714 13:49 -- GMT
------
Natural Gas Technical Update - 40 Day Moving Average Resistance Holds On Tuesday
Today’s expiring September 14 natural gas contract rallied up to a new 2-week of 3.978 in early trade on Tuesday but couldn’t hold the early gains as it fell lower into the session’s close.
The September contract finished the session with a .026 loss settling at 3.911. A potentially bearish dark cloud cover Japanese candlestick was also posted on Tuesday’s daily bar but hasn’t been confirmed with lower trade today.
The market is instead higher in early trade today pushing against 40 day average resistance at the 3.950 level. A breakout above the 40 day average followed by the 4.020 high set two weeks ago would turn weekly chart resistance between 4.050-4.100 into the next upside objective. A breakout above 4.100 would turn the longer term trend back higher.
If resistance holds, the 10 day moving average at 3.870 will become the first area of support followed by the 3.828 weekly low. Longer term support levels are the 3.725-3.727 weekly lows set over the past month.
A drop below 3.725 would keep the primary trend down with following support at 3.650 and the 3.582 contract low set last November.
Once a low does form, the market should begin a sideways to higher seasonal uptrend into the early months of 2015.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Crude Oil Technical Update - Bullish Breakout Attempt In Overnight Trade
The October 14 crude oil contract briefly broke out above 94.00 resistance in Tuesday but dropped back under this level by the session’s close settling at 93.86, up .51.
The 10 day moving average at 93.85 today has been broken in the overnight session turning yesterday’s 94.35 high into the next upside resistance. There has not been a single daily close above the 10 day moving average since July 25th. A breakout above 94.35 could indicate a market low has been set.
93.40-93.50 is the first area of support today if today’s early strength fades with longer term support at last week’s 92.50 low. If the 92.50 low is broken as support, the 2014 spot contract low of 91.24 will become the next downside support.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish
Natural Gas Technical Update - 13-Year Historical Look At Post-Summer Seasonal Lows
The monthly natural gas chart is labeled with the price and month during which post-summer seasonal have been set over the past 13 years.
During 8 of the 13 years, the post-summer seasonal low was set during the months of August or September. In 2010, the low set posted the first week of October.
There were 4 out of the 13 years during which a post-summer seasonal low was not set. These years have been labeled in red and are considered exceptional years. 2005 was following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita which disrupted Gulf of Mexico production. 2008 was during the “Financial Collapse” when natural gas topped at a 13.870 spot price high in July and fell to an eventual low of 2.409 13 months later. And 2011 and 2012 when there was little winter demand for natural gas and a record amount of gas in storage during the spring of 2012.
For 2014, history suggests a second and final seasonal low for 2014 (if it hasn’t been set already) forming soon in the market.
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
Dow Jones - End of Day Natural Gas Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Closes Lower on Uncertainty Over Warming Forecast
By Timothy Puko
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices closed lower Tuesday with traders unconvinced
that a warming forecast would translate into a significant increase in demand.
The front-month September contract settled down 2.6 cents, or 0.7%, to $3.911
a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The more
actively traded October contract settled down 3 cents, or 0.8%, to
$3.949/mmBtu. September options expired at close and the contract expires
Wednesday.
Both contracts flip-flopped around unchanged on a lot of mixed signals,
primarily from the weather, analysts said. Though most forecasts showed another
spurt of summer heat coming in early September, that wasn't a unanimous
prediction. The warmer forecasts also included signs that cooler fronts could
break up or limit the heat likely to hit the south and east.
"Without the forecast (for heat) being extended into the first three weeks of
September, we don't really have enough momentum...to get another leg on the
rally," said Gene McGillian, a broker and analyst at Tradition Energy.
Production from the domestic gas boom is just too overwhelming, he added.
U.S. gas producers are on pace to hit a record 73.9 billion cubic feet a day
this year, according to the Energy Information Administration. That has left
the market out of balance, oversupplied by more than 3 bcf a day this summer,
according to Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., an energy investment bank in
Houston.
Gas prices have bounced back at times from earlier summer losses, apparently
helped by power plants jumping in to buy at cheaper prices, analysts have said.
But the oversupply has put a ceiling on that, and gas prices have retreated as
they close in on $4/mmBtu.
That was the primary force in play Tuesday, Mr. McGillian said. The contract
expirations also helped, with options traders and technical traders unwilling
to push the price over $4 with so little trading timing remaining on the
September contract, other analysts said.
Tuesday's losses brought gas back toward the middle of the 29-cent range it
has traded within for more than a month. Without the influence of severe
weather, it is unlikely to break out of that range soon, Mr. McGillian and
other analysts said.
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex September $3.911 -2.6c
Nymex October $3.949 -3c
Nymex November $4.018 -3.1c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS DAY
El Paso Perm $3.86-$3.915 $3.835-$3.865
El Paso SJ $3.91-$4.00 $3.86-$3.90
Henry Hub $3.915-$3.98 $3.89 -$4.00
Katy $3.955-$4.02 $3.96-$4.00
SoCal $4.10-$4.31 $4.05-$4.31
Tex East M3 $2.70-$2.85 $2.45-$2.62
Transco 65 $3.92-$3.975 $3.905-$3.9475
Transco Z6 $2.85-$2.95 $2.50-$2.78
Waha $3.92-$3.95 $3.83-$3.925
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 26, 2014 15:40 ET (19:40 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
082614 19:40 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices closed lower Tuesday with traders unconvinced
that a warming forecast would translate into a significant increase in demand.
The front-month September contract settled down 2.6 cents, or 0.7%, to $3.911
a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The more
actively traded October contract settled down 3 cents, or 0.8%, to
$3.949/mmBtu. September options expired at close and the contract expires
Wednesday.
Both contracts flip-flopped around unchanged on a lot of mixed signals,
primarily from the weather, analysts said. Though most forecasts showed another
spurt of summer heat coming in early September, that wasn't a unanimous
prediction. The warmer forecasts also included signs that cooler fronts could
break up or limit the heat likely to hit the south and east.
"Without the forecast (for heat) being extended into the first three weeks of
September, we don't really have enough momentum...to get another leg on the
rally," said Gene McGillian, a broker and analyst at Tradition Energy.
Production from the domestic gas boom is just too overwhelming, he added.
U.S. gas producers are on pace to hit a record 73.9 billion cubic feet a day
this year, according to the Energy Information Administration. That has left
the market out of balance, oversupplied by more than 3 bcf a day this summer,
according to Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., an energy investment bank in
Houston.
Gas prices have bounced back at times from earlier summer losses, apparently
helped by power plants jumping in to buy at cheaper prices, analysts have said.
But the oversupply has put a ceiling on that, and gas prices have retreated as
they close in on $4/mmBtu.
That was the primary force in play Tuesday, Mr. McGillian said. The contract
expirations also helped, with options traders and technical traders unwilling
to push the price over $4 with so little trading timing remaining on the
September contract, other analysts said.
Tuesday's losses brought gas back toward the middle of the 29-cent range it
has traded within for more than a month. Without the influence of severe
weather, it is unlikely to break out of that range soon, Mr. McGillian and
other analysts said.
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex September $3.911 -2.6c
Nymex October $3.949 -3c
Nymex November $4.018 -3.1c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS DAY
El Paso Perm $3.86-$3.915 $3.835-$3.865
El Paso SJ $3.91-$4.00 $3.86-$3.90
Henry Hub $3.915-$3.98 $3.89 -$4.00
Katy $3.955-$4.02 $3.96-$4.00
SoCal $4.10-$4.31 $4.05-$4.31
Tex East M3 $2.70-$2.85 $2.45-$2.62
Transco 65 $3.92-$3.975 $3.905-$3.9475
Transco Z6 $2.85-$2.95 $2.50-$2.78
Waha $3.92-$3.95 $3.83-$3.925
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 26, 2014 15:40 ET (19:40 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
082614 19:40 -- GMT
------
Dow Jones - Morning Natural Gas Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Flip-Flopping on Mixed Signals
By Timothy Puko
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices are rising slightly Tuesday as mixed weather
forecasts, contract expiration and a looming holiday are creating a quickly
changing market.
Natural gas for September delivery is up 1.1 cents, or 0.3%, at $3.948 a
million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The more
heavily traded October contract is up 1 cent, or 0.3%, to $3.989/mmBtu.
September options expire Tuesday and the contract expires Wednesday.
Both contracts flip-flopped around unchanged to start the day. After the
trading floor opened, the September contract briefly surpassed the market's
highest closing price in a month, and then started back down toward unchanged.
A mixed batch of weather updates leaned toward hotter forecasts for early
September. But traders are also looking at short-term forecasts that show cool
weather coming soon, said Frank Clements, co-owner of Meridian Energy Brokers
Inc. outside New York. Gas demand and price in the summer are largely dependent
on how much people use their air conditioners, which consume large amounts of
gas-fired electricity.
The options expiration also adds an element of unpredictability, as several
traders are likely to ignore larger market forces in order to position their
trades for the expiration, analysts said. That uncertainty, combined with the
mixed weather forecasts and the coming three-day Labor Day weekend, is likely
to keep changes limited Tuesday, regardless of what direction the market
ultimately takes, analysts said.
"No one's really willing to stick their neck out right now," Mr. Clements
said.
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded
at $3.97/mmBtu, compared with Monday's range of $3.89-$4.00. Cash prices at the
Transco Z6 hub in New York last traded at $2.915/mmBtu, compared with Monday's
range of $2.50 to $2.78.
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 26, 2014 09:39 ET (13:39 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
082614 13:39 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices are rising slightly Tuesday as mixed weather
forecasts, contract expiration and a looming holiday are creating a quickly
changing market.
Natural gas for September delivery is up 1.1 cents, or 0.3%, at $3.948 a
million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The more
heavily traded October contract is up 1 cent, or 0.3%, to $3.989/mmBtu.
September options expire Tuesday and the contract expires Wednesday.
Both contracts flip-flopped around unchanged to start the day. After the
trading floor opened, the September contract briefly surpassed the market's
highest closing price in a month, and then started back down toward unchanged.
A mixed batch of weather updates leaned toward hotter forecasts for early
September. But traders are also looking at short-term forecasts that show cool
weather coming soon, said Frank Clements, co-owner of Meridian Energy Brokers
Inc. outside New York. Gas demand and price in the summer are largely dependent
on how much people use their air conditioners, which consume large amounts of
gas-fired electricity.
The options expiration also adds an element of unpredictability, as several
traders are likely to ignore larger market forces in order to position their
trades for the expiration, analysts said. That uncertainty, combined with the
mixed weather forecasts and the coming three-day Labor Day weekend, is likely
to keep changes limited Tuesday, regardless of what direction the market
ultimately takes, analysts said.
"No one's really willing to stick their neck out right now," Mr. Clements
said.
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded
at $3.97/mmBtu, compared with Monday's range of $3.89-$4.00. Cash prices at the
Transco Z6 hub in New York last traded at $2.915/mmBtu, compared with Monday's
range of $2.50 to $2.78.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 26, 2014 09:39 ET (13:39 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
082614 13:39 -- GMT
------
Natural Gas Update - 40 Day Moving Average Resistance Holds In The Overnight Session
The September 14 natural gas contract which expires on tomorrow’s close began the new trading week on Monday with a strong rally higher gaining .097 (2.5%) to settle at 3.937.
Yesterday’s rally has stalled, at least temporarily, at 40 day moving average resistance which is at 3.960 today with the current overnight high being 3.957.
A breakout above the 40 day moving average which has not been touched since June 26th would be further confirmation that a market low has been set.
There should also be selling resistance beginning at the 4.020 weekly high and extending up to the 4.100 level with a close over this area needed to turn the longer term trend back higher.
If resistance holds and the market remains in a now 5 week sideways range, the 10 day moving average will become the first area of support at 3.860. Longer term supports are the 3.725-3.727 weekly lows set over the past month.
A drop under 3.725 would keep the primary market trend down with following support at 3.650 and the 3.582 contract low.
Current weakness should be the final price break of 2014 before a seasonal low is set. Once a low does form, a rally back higher over the next 4-6 months is expected.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Crude Oil Technical Update - Small Triangle Forming On The October 14 Contract
After falling to a new 7-month low last Thursday, the October 14 crude oil contract has spent the following two days coiling in a sideways range.
This sideways range has formed a very small triangle which should be followed by a breakout over the next few days of trade. The only question now is in what direction?
The October contract on Monday held in a fairly narrow .95 intraday trading range closing the session down .30 at 93.35.
Triangle support is near 93.00 with resistance at 94.00. Odds favor (75%) of this triangle being a continuation pattern lower. A downside breakout from the triangle would turn the 91.00 area into the downside objective for completion. 91.26 is the current 2014 spot contract low for crude oil.
If the breakout from the triangle instead comes to the upside above 94.00 and the 10 day moving average at 94.10, 96.00 will become the upside objective for the triangle pattern. It would also likely indicate a low has formed in the market.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish
Natural Gas Commitment of Trader's Report - Funds May Begin To Rebuy The Natural Gas Market
The hedge funds have accumulated record high speculative long positions in the natural gas market two times over the past two years. In both instances, the market topped the very week the record long position was reached.
This is fairly typical in the commodity markets and is a reliable contrarian indicator. When the funds are record long, who else is left to come in behind them and buy the market?
The first time over the past 2 years the funds accumulated a record large long position in natural gas was the first week of May 2013, the very week the market posted a summer high. The second time was in February 2014 when spot prices rallied up to a 6.490 high. Funds are that point were long 458,901 contracts (futures only).
The funds almost built another record high long position in June 2014 topping out at 395,000+ contracts. This too came at the summer high.
Since June, funds have been steadily liquidating as the market fell from the summer high to a new 2014 price low for many of the forward strips.
The funds are currently long 200,837 contracts in natural gas according to last week's COT report. They will likely begin to add to existing long positions over upcoming weeks in an attempt to play the seasonal winter rally in the market back higher. This could be a supportive feature for the market.
Monday, August 25, 2014
Dow Jones - Natural Gas Powered Truck Sales Growing
DJ Natural-Gas Powered Truck Sales Inch Ahead
By Bob Tita
In the midst of the strongest market for commercial trucks in eight years,
North American sales of natural-gas-powered haulers are just crawling along.
Their higher purchase price compared with diesel trucks, improved diesel
fuel economy and continued scarcity of fueling stations are damping
natural-gas-powered truck demand. About 10,480 of the heavy-duty trucks are
expected to be sold this year, up 20% from the 8,730 sold last year, according
to Power Systems Research. However, some forecasters had expected sales to
about double to 16,000 vehicles this year amid the trucking industry's
enthusiasm for natural gas a year ago.
What happened? A big roadblock remains the premium for a heavy-duty gas
truck--$50,000 more than the about $150,000 for a new diesel-powered truck. In
theory, the payback for that higher price is recovered from fuel savings of
between $1.60 and $1.70 for the gas equivalent of a gallon of diesel. Paybacks
can average four years considering the average truck travels 125,000 miles a
year.
But truckers say the fuel savings isn't all it seems. Mileage from a
natural-gas-powered truck is about 20% less per energy equivalent than a diesel
truck, meaning a gas truck consumes the same amount of fuel for 200 miles as a
diesel truck uses for 240 miles. Moreover, fuel costs--as well as any
natural-gas fuel savings--are typically passed on to a trucking company's
customers.
"If you're paying $1 per gallon less for fuel, they'd want that money for
themselves, but you need that to pay off the equipment," said Mike Card,
president of Combined Transport Inc., which operates a fleet of 500 diesel
trucks specializing in hauling heavy or wide cargoes, such as wind energy
towers.
At current fuel prices, it takes about four years to recover their
investment. "That's tough for a lot of fleets. They want their investment
returns a lot faster," said Mike DelBovo, transportation president of Saddle
Creek Logistics Services in Lakeland, Fla., which has 175 gas-powered trucks in
a fleet of 550.
Large fleet operators typically replace their vehicles every three to four
years, leaving little time for them to benefit from the lower fuel costs of
natural-gas-powered trucks.
Another factor limiting natural-gas-powered sales is the arrival on the
market of new, more efficient diesel engines. The first phase of a federally
mandated 6% improvement in fuel economy by 2017 took effect this year, pushing
heavy-duty truck mileage closer to 7 miles per gallon from about 6.5 mpg.
Indiana-based Cummins Inc. delayed indefinitely a 15-liter natural-gas
engine for high horsepower long-distance trucks carrying heavy loads. And a
joint venture with Vancouver's Westport Innovations Inc. also ceased production
of a 15-liter natural gas engine last fall. That venture still makes
smaller-size natural-gas engines used in cement trucks, garbage trucks and
delivery vehicles that spend just a day on the road.
All this comes as the market for new commercial trucks is booming. Demand
for heavy-duty trucks--those weighing more than 33,000 pounds and used for
long-distance travel--is strong. A stronger economy has pushed up freight
volumes, and fleet replacements are expected to push production of heavy-duty
trucks in North America this year up 21% from 2013 to 297,400 vehicles, the
highest volume since 2006, said Columbus, Ind., market forecaster ACT Research
LLC.
For-hire trucking companies such as Con-way Inc. and Schneider National
Inc. say they continue to test small numbers of natural-gas trucks. But the
limited number of natural-gas refueling stations limits the switch to gas. Just
slightly more than half of the 1,500 natural-gas fueling stations in the U.S.
are public-access sites, and not all of these can accommodate large trucks.
Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst for ACT Research, which had
forecast as much as a doubling of demand, said a key constraint has been "the
need to build out the [gas fueling] infrastructure."
Of course, those trucking companies committed to using alternative fuels
or that handle deliveries for customers looking for a greener profile are
moving ahead on natural-gas vehicle acquisitions.
"There's not a huge savings today with natural gas," said Jeff Shefchik,
president of Paper Transport Inc., 430-truck regional fleet Green Bay, Wis.,
with about 100 natural-gas trucks. "But we're content to invest in it because
it's going to grow over time."
United Parcel Service Inc. this year has ordered about 300 gas-powered
heavy-duty trucks and bought 700 gas tractors last year. The trucks operate
mostly in corridors in the West and South that have plenty of natural-gas
stations, some of which UPS helped to finance. By the end of the year, about 2%
of UPS's 100,000 vehicles world-wide will be powered by natural gas.
Meanwhile, Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Office Depot Inc. and Lowe's Cos. and
consumer products manufacturer Procter & Gamble Co. are among the companies
requesting their trucking suppliers use natural-gas vehicles to comply with
corporate policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and pollution caused by
burning diesel fuel.
Saddle Creek, which offers trucking to those retailers, is racking up 1.5
million miles a month on its 175-vehicle natural-gas fleet and plans to buy 25
additional Freightliner gas trucks by the end of the year.
Still, those purchases are dwarfed by the sheer number of new
diesel-powered trucks being sold. North American sales of diesel-powered trucks
are forecast to rise 17% to 281,620 this year. Two ago, forecasters expected as
much as 20% of the heavy-duty trucks sold annually in North America by the end
of the decade would be natural-gas powered, a more abundant, cheap and
cleaner-burning fuel than diesel.
"We're still growing [natural-gas-powered trucks], but all the hype is
gone," said Robert Carrick, sales manager for natural gas for Freightliner, a
unit of Germany's Daimler AG. "Long-haul, over-the-road trucking is not going
to adopt natural gas for a long time."
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 25, 2014 15:42 ET (19:42 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
082514 19:42 -- GMT
------
By Bob Tita
In the midst of the strongest market for commercial trucks in eight years,
North American sales of natural-gas-powered haulers are just crawling along.
Their higher purchase price compared with diesel trucks, improved diesel
fuel economy and continued scarcity of fueling stations are damping
natural-gas-powered truck demand. About 10,480 of the heavy-duty trucks are
expected to be sold this year, up 20% from the 8,730 sold last year, according
to Power Systems Research. However, some forecasters had expected sales to
about double to 16,000 vehicles this year amid the trucking industry's
enthusiasm for natural gas a year ago.
What happened? A big roadblock remains the premium for a heavy-duty gas
truck--$50,000 more than the about $150,000 for a new diesel-powered truck. In
theory, the payback for that higher price is recovered from fuel savings of
between $1.60 and $1.70 for the gas equivalent of a gallon of diesel. Paybacks
can average four years considering the average truck travels 125,000 miles a
year.
But truckers say the fuel savings isn't all it seems. Mileage from a
natural-gas-powered truck is about 20% less per energy equivalent than a diesel
truck, meaning a gas truck consumes the same amount of fuel for 200 miles as a
diesel truck uses for 240 miles. Moreover, fuel costs--as well as any
natural-gas fuel savings--are typically passed on to a trucking company's
customers.
"If you're paying $1 per gallon less for fuel, they'd want that money for
themselves, but you need that to pay off the equipment," said Mike Card,
president of Combined Transport Inc., which operates a fleet of 500 diesel
trucks specializing in hauling heavy or wide cargoes, such as wind energy
towers.
At current fuel prices, it takes about four years to recover their
investment. "That's tough for a lot of fleets. They want their investment
returns a lot faster," said Mike DelBovo, transportation president of Saddle
Creek Logistics Services in Lakeland, Fla., which has 175 gas-powered trucks in
a fleet of 550.
Large fleet operators typically replace their vehicles every three to four
years, leaving little time for them to benefit from the lower fuel costs of
natural-gas-powered trucks.
Another factor limiting natural-gas-powered sales is the arrival on the
market of new, more efficient diesel engines. The first phase of a federally
mandated 6% improvement in fuel economy by 2017 took effect this year, pushing
heavy-duty truck mileage closer to 7 miles per gallon from about 6.5 mpg.
Indiana-based Cummins Inc. delayed indefinitely a 15-liter natural-gas
engine for high horsepower long-distance trucks carrying heavy loads. And a
joint venture with Vancouver's Westport Innovations Inc. also ceased production
of a 15-liter natural gas engine last fall. That venture still makes
smaller-size natural-gas engines used in cement trucks, garbage trucks and
delivery vehicles that spend just a day on the road.
All this comes as the market for new commercial trucks is booming. Demand
for heavy-duty trucks--those weighing more than 33,000 pounds and used for
long-distance travel--is strong. A stronger economy has pushed up freight
volumes, and fleet replacements are expected to push production of heavy-duty
trucks in North America this year up 21% from 2013 to 297,400 vehicles, the
highest volume since 2006, said Columbus, Ind., market forecaster ACT Research
LLC.
For-hire trucking companies such as Con-way Inc. and Schneider National
Inc. say they continue to test small numbers of natural-gas trucks. But the
limited number of natural-gas refueling stations limits the switch to gas. Just
slightly more than half of the 1,500 natural-gas fueling stations in the U.S.
are public-access sites, and not all of these can accommodate large trucks.
Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst for ACT Research, which had
forecast as much as a doubling of demand, said a key constraint has been "the
need to build out the [gas fueling] infrastructure."
Of course, those trucking companies committed to using alternative fuels
or that handle deliveries for customers looking for a greener profile are
moving ahead on natural-gas vehicle acquisitions.
"There's not a huge savings today with natural gas," said Jeff Shefchik,
president of Paper Transport Inc., 430-truck regional fleet Green Bay, Wis.,
with about 100 natural-gas trucks. "But we're content to invest in it because
it's going to grow over time."
United Parcel Service Inc. this year has ordered about 300 gas-powered
heavy-duty trucks and bought 700 gas tractors last year. The trucks operate
mostly in corridors in the West and South that have plenty of natural-gas
stations, some of which UPS helped to finance. By the end of the year, about 2%
of UPS's 100,000 vehicles world-wide will be powered by natural gas.
Meanwhile, Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Office Depot Inc. and Lowe's Cos. and
consumer products manufacturer Procter & Gamble Co. are among the companies
requesting their trucking suppliers use natural-gas vehicles to comply with
corporate policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and pollution caused by
burning diesel fuel.
Saddle Creek, which offers trucking to those retailers, is racking up 1.5
million miles a month on its 175-vehicle natural-gas fleet and plans to buy 25
additional Freightliner gas trucks by the end of the year.
Still, those purchases are dwarfed by the sheer number of new
diesel-powered trucks being sold. North American sales of diesel-powered trucks
are forecast to rise 17% to 281,620 this year. Two ago, forecasters expected as
much as 20% of the heavy-duty trucks sold annually in North America by the end
of the decade would be natural-gas powered, a more abundant, cheap and
cleaner-burning fuel than diesel.
"We're still growing [natural-gas-powered trucks], but all the hype is
gone," said Robert Carrick, sales manager for natural gas for Freightliner, a
unit of Germany's Daimler AG. "Long-haul, over-the-road trucking is not going
to adopt natural gas for a long time."
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 25, 2014 15:42 ET (19:42 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
082514 19:42 -- GMT
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