Natural Gas Technical Update - 13-Year Historical Look At Post-Summer Seasonal Lows

The monthly natural gas chart is labeled with the price and month during  which post-summer seasonal have been set over the past 13 years.

During 8 of the 13 years, the post-summer seasonal low was set during  the months of August or September.  In 2010, the low set posted the first week of October.

There were 4 out of the 13 years during which a post-summer seasonal low was not set.  These years have been labeled in red and are considered exceptional years.   2005 was following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita which disrupted Gulf of Mexico production.  2008 was during the “Financial Collapse” when natural gas topped at a 13.870 spot price high in July and fell to an eventual low of 2.409 13 months later.  And 2011 and 2012 when there was little winter demand  for natural gas and a record amount of gas in storage during the spring of 2012.

For 2014, history  suggests a second and final seasonal low for 2014 (if it hasn’t been set already) forming soon in  the market.