The September 14 natural gas contract last Tuesday moved up to a new 4-week price high topping out at 4.020. But over the following three days, the contract was heavily sold closing Friday at 3.776, down .186 or 4.7% for the week.
The September contract sold down to a 3.727 low overnight holding 2 ticks above the previous low of 3.725 set three weeks ago. The inability to push the market down to a new price low for this downtrend could be the beginning of a longer term trend reversal back higher.
In order to turn the longer term trend back up, a breakout first above the 10 day moving average at 3.890 followed by resistance at the lower-4.000 level which now includes the 40 day moving average is needed.
A drop under 3.725-3.727 support would keep the primary market trend down with following support at 3.650 and the 3.582 contract low posted last November.
The Commitment of Trader’s report released Friday showed funds adding to existing long positions for the first time in several weeks. The current fund long position in natural gas as of last Tuesday’s close was 205,519 contracts, up 5,143 from the previous week but well below the 395,000+ contracts reached in June on the market highs.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
The September contract sold down to a 3.727 low overnight holding 2 ticks above the previous low of 3.725 set three weeks ago. The inability to push the market down to a new price low for this downtrend could be the beginning of a longer term trend reversal back higher.
In order to turn the longer term trend back up, a breakout first above the 10 day moving average at 3.890 followed by resistance at the lower-4.000 level which now includes the 40 day moving average is needed.
A drop under 3.725-3.727 support would keep the primary market trend down with following support at 3.650 and the 3.582 contract low posted last November.
The Commitment of Trader’s report released Friday showed funds adding to existing long positions for the first time in several weeks. The current fund long position in natural gas as of last Tuesday’s close was 205,519 contracts, up 5,143 from the previous week but well below the 395,000+ contracts reached in June on the market highs.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
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