Price weakness earlier today was met with a wave of day end buying possibly related to expiration of the October 14 natural gas options. Volatility could continue tomorrow with expiration of the October futures contract.
Fundamentally there wasn't much to move the market as weather forecasts have turned mildly bearish with above normal temperatures expected across much of the eastern U.S. For the month of September, above-normal temps especially in the north mean very little in terms of increased demand of natural gas for cooling.
The market did rally higher today from weekly chart support at the 3.740-3.800 level basis the spot October 14 contract that has been tested 6 times over the past 10 weeks holding each time. As support held again, the market reversed back higher today. The question now is if resistance at the 4.000-4.101 level can be broken?
Tomorrow's pre-report analysts' estimates for the EIA weekly storage report are fairly wide at between 81 - 96 Bcf with a median estimate of +92 Bcf. If the market continues to see such strong injections as have been reported over the past 3 weeks but really since mid-April, new price lows will likely be set before a final seasonal low is posted.
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