Dow Jones Natural Gas - End of Day Commentary

DJ Natural Gas Futures Slip as Warmer Weather Appears in Forecast



  By Christian Berthelsen


  Natural gas futures edged down Monday as above-normal temperatures began appearing in extended weather forecasts,
rolling back expectations of demand for gas-fired heating demand as winter weather fades.

  Natural gas for the front-month April contract fell 3.6 cents, or 1.3%, to $2.698 a million British thermal units on
the New York Mercantile Exchange. The session opened in the red and turned briefly positive midmorning but sold off
through the rest of the day.

  After a frigid January and February, a growing number of forecasters are calling for a warming for much of the U.S.
in mid-March. Energy data firm Genscape Inc. on Monday called for a "huge" turnaround by mid-March and
warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Northeast.

  "Domestic forecasts are calling for warm temperatures across the eastern seaboard during mid-March, effectively
heralding the end of winter," research firm Gelber & Associates said in a note.

  If the forecasts prove accurate, they could bring an end to the peak demand season for natural gas, removing the main
bullish driver in the market at a time when supplies are abundant thanks to surging domestic production.

  "Some of the remaining risks of the winter heating season seem to be drying up," said Gene McGillian, senior analyst
at brokerage Tradition Energy in Stamford, Conn.

  U.S. stockpiles of natural gas stood at 1.94 trillion cubic feet as of the most recent data on Feb. 20, 42% above
year-ago levels and just 1.5% below average for this time of year. Still, analysts anticipate at least two more strong
draws on stored supplies in weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information, before the last of winter's chilly weather
clears out.

  Money managers, such as hedge funds, are overall bearish on the market, with the number of bets that the market will
fall outnumbering those that they will rise, according to data released Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading
Commission.

FUTURES     SETTLEMENT   NET CHANGE
Nymex April   $2.698      -3.6c
Nymex May     $2.739      -3.2c
Nymex June    $2.780      -3.2c

CASH HUB         RANGE       PREVIOUS SESSION
El Paso Perm  $2.72-$2.7825    $2.41-$2.5625
El Paso SJ    $2.72-$2.76      $2.47-$2.565
Henry Hub     $2.74-$2.91      $2.68-$2.85
Katy          $2.75-$2.83      $2.65-$2.74
SoCal         $2.79-$2.85      $2.58-$2.70
Tex East M3   $2.95-$3.10      $2.56-$3.00
Transco 65    $2.85-$2.98      $2.79-$2.86
Transco Z6    $4.34-$4.95      $3.00-$3.55
Waha          $2.80-$2.88      $2.60-$2.65


  Write to Christian Berthelsen at christian.berthelsen@wsj.com


Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwireshttp://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires">http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires
>

  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

  March 02, 2015 15:18 ET (20:18 GMT)

  Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

030215 20:18 -- GMT
------