natural gas
Saturday, June 27, 2015
Friday, June 26, 2015
Dow Jones - Natural Gas Retreats On Expectations For Strong Supply
DJ Natural Gas Retreats on Expectations for Strong Supply
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas prices were giving back most of the prior session's gains on expectations for strong supply.
Natural gas for July delivery fell 6.9 cents, or 2.4%, at $2.781 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange.
Money managers have been strongly positioned in favor of falling gas prices, but the market has been resilient. Power
plants have ramped up demand and there are signs that production may be in slight decline after a period of rampant
growth. Prices rose 3% on Thursday as government data showed the smallest weekly surplus in more than two months and
analysts said the market had come into balance.
But many believe that balance won't last. The U.S. Energy Information Administration also said on Thursday that
production had grown 1% this week despite pipeline shutdowns for maintenance. Production is back at its near-record
pace of 72 billion cubic feet a day, EIA said, citing the data provider Bentek Energy.
Friday's quick reversal in the market is also a sign that traders haven't fundamentally changed that widespread
bearish view, analysts said.
Money managers have had about five bearish positions for every three bullish positions, and that balance can lead
prices to rise quickly if bearish traders close out their positions by buying back a gas futures contract.
Many likely did on on Thursday to protect themselves against the bullish government data on gas stockpiles, analysts
said. And so, with that news now in the past, a retreat in prices on Friday is probably a sign those traders are
reestablishing a bearish trade or that the larger expectation is still that the market is oversupplied, analysts said.
"With the production levels we're seeing, the market can't sustain rallies. This is another example," said Gene
McGillian, an analyst at Tradition Energy.
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.77/mmBtu, compared with Thursday's
range of $2.775-$2.805. Cash prices at the Transco in New York last traded at $1.43/mmBtu, compared with Thursday's
range of $2.30 to $2.40.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 26, 2015 10:15 ET (14:15 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
062615 14:15 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas prices were giving back most of the prior session's gains on expectations for strong supply.
Natural gas for July delivery fell 6.9 cents, or 2.4%, at $2.781 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange.
Money managers have been strongly positioned in favor of falling gas prices, but the market has been resilient. Power
plants have ramped up demand and there are signs that production may be in slight decline after a period of rampant
growth. Prices rose 3% on Thursday as government data showed the smallest weekly surplus in more than two months and
analysts said the market had come into balance.
But many believe that balance won't last. The U.S. Energy Information Administration also said on Thursday that
production had grown 1% this week despite pipeline shutdowns for maintenance. Production is back at its near-record
pace of 72 billion cubic feet a day, EIA said, citing the data provider Bentek Energy.
Friday's quick reversal in the market is also a sign that traders haven't fundamentally changed that widespread
bearish view, analysts said.
Money managers have had about five bearish positions for every three bullish positions, and that balance can lead
prices to rise quickly if bearish traders close out their positions by buying back a gas futures contract.
Many likely did on on Thursday to protect themselves against the bullish government data on gas stockpiles, analysts
said. And so, with that news now in the past, a retreat in prices on Friday is probably a sign those traders are
reestablishing a bearish trade or that the larger expectation is still that the market is oversupplied, analysts said.
"With the production levels we're seeing, the market can't sustain rallies. This is another example," said Gene
McGillian, an analyst at Tradition Energy.
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.77/mmBtu, compared with Thursday's
range of $2.775-$2.805. Cash prices at the Transco in New York last traded at $1.43/mmBtu, compared with Thursday's
range of $2.30 to $2.40.
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 26, 2015 10:15 ET (14:15 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
062615 14:15 -- GMT
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Natural Gas Corner - Technical Update - Yesterday's Rally Suspect
Today’s expiring July 15 natural gas contract gained ground for a second day on Thursday rallying higher from a two-week low reached earlier in the week to settle at 2.850, up 3.3%.
10 and 40 day moving average resistance was broken on
Thursday but there has been no follow through buying in today’s early trade.
The 40 day moving average at 2.830 has been broken as
support turning the 10 day average at 2.810 into the next downside
support. A drop back under 2.810 will turn the near term trend back down
with the 2.711 weekly low becoming the next downside support.
Thursday’s 2.854 is the first area of resistance today
followed by a down sloping trend line currently at 2.900-2.910. A
breakout above this trend line would be a bullish technical signal for the
market.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment –
Neutral
Long Term Trend Following Index – BearishShort Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Thursday, June 25, 2015
Dow Jones - Natural Gas Hits One-Week High As Oversupply Evaporates
DJ Natural Gas Hits One-Week High as Oversupply Evaporates
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas made steady gains Thursday on signs of a rare reprieve from chronic oversupply.
Gas prices have been resilient all month, defying a near-record number of bets that money managers placed against
them in recent weeks. A hot spell spread across the country raised demand for gas-fired power just as production cuts
and pipeline outages started to choke back supply.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Thursday storage levels grew by 75 billion cubic feet, 13% below the
five-year average, in the week ended June 19. It is the smallest storage addition in more than two months, and suggests
the market has come back into balance after a long period of booming supply repeatedly outpacing demand.
Prices for the front-month July contract settled up 9.1 cents, or 3.3%, to $2.85 a million British thermal unit on
the New York Mercantile Exchange. The gains put gas at its highest settlement in a week and up 7.9% month-to-date.
Power plants usually burn more gas as the weather gets hotter and people turn on their air conditioners. One measure
of that demand, cooling degree days, was 43% above the 30-year average for last week, according to Simmons & Co.
International.
"More demand from here means [the] gas price needs to move higher to keep the market balanced," Tudor, Pickering,
Holt & Co. said.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 25, 2015 15:30 ET (19:30 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
062515 19:30 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas made steady gains Thursday on signs of a rare reprieve from chronic oversupply.
Gas prices have been resilient all month, defying a near-record number of bets that money managers placed against
them in recent weeks. A hot spell spread across the country raised demand for gas-fired power just as production cuts
and pipeline outages started to choke back supply.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Thursday storage levels grew by 75 billion cubic feet, 13% below the
five-year average, in the week ended June 19. It is the smallest storage addition in more than two months, and suggests
the market has come back into balance after a long period of booming supply repeatedly outpacing demand.
Prices for the front-month July contract settled up 9.1 cents, or 3.3%, to $2.85 a million British thermal unit on
the New York Mercantile Exchange. The gains put gas at its highest settlement in a week and up 7.9% month-to-date.
Power plants usually burn more gas as the weather gets hotter and people turn on their air conditioners. One measure
of that demand, cooling degree days, was 43% above the 30-year average for last week, according to Simmons & Co.
International.
"More demand from here means [the] gas price needs to move higher to keep the market balanced," Tudor, Pickering,
Holt & Co. said.
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 25, 2015 15:30 ET (19:30 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
062515 19:30 -- GMT
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EIA Weekly Storage Report - 75 Bcf Injection - Lower End of Estimates
For the week ended June 19:
EIA Injection - 75 BCF
Last Year's Injection - 110 BCF
5 Yr Avg Injection - 86 BCF
Range of Estimates - 72 BCF to 88 BCF
Avg Estimate - 78 BCF
Total Gas in Storage - 2.508 TCF
Natural Gas Corner - Technical Update - Bulls Hold The Fort For A Third Day
The July 15 natural gas contract found good buying interest
at the lower-2.700 level for a third day on Wednesday gaining .033 to settle at
2.759.
The July contract is currently trading near the middle of
the past month’s trading range with support for today again coming in at
the lower-2.700 level. A drop under the 2.700 level would turn the
2.540-2.556 weekly lows into the next downside support.
The top of the gap area at 2.808 created on Monday’s open
has now been completely closed with today’s daily high being 2.811.
The 2.800-2.830 area which includes the top of the gap as
well as the 10 and 40 day moving averages is key resistance today. A
breakout above 2.830 would turn the near term trend back up with following
resistance at the upper trend line currently at 2.910-2.920. A breakout
above upper trend line resistance would be a very bullish technical signal for
the market but is not expected.
Longer term, there might be a bearish right triangle
forming on the July contract. A breakout below 2.540-2.556 support
is needed to trigger the pattern.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment –
Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish
Wednesday, June 24, 2015
Natural Gas Corner - Market Review - This Is The Best Rally The Bulls Can Muster?
The inability for the natural gas market to move higher early this week with above-normal temperature readings across much of the U.S. is certainly not a bullish omen.
The strong storage injections made over the first 11 weeks of the injection season should push end of October storage levels to a new all-time high exceeding the 3,929 Bcf peak reached in 2012.
If this prediction holds true, new price lows toward the end of summer are expected.
Increased power generator demand should continue to be a supportive feature as is decreasing production which some models suggest has fallen by over 3 Bcf per day from December 2014.
If production does fall, the lows set in upcoming trade could be a multi-year price low for the natural gas market.
The strong storage injections made over the first 11 weeks of the injection season should push end of October storage levels to a new all-time high exceeding the 3,929 Bcf peak reached in 2012.
If this prediction holds true, new price lows toward the end of summer are expected.
Increased power generator demand should continue to be a supportive feature as is decreasing production which some models suggest has fallen by over 3 Bcf per day from December 2014.
If production does fall, the lows set in upcoming trade could be a multi-year price low for the natural gas market.
Analysts' Estimates For Tomorrow's EIA Weekly Storage Report
DJ Analysts See 78-Billion-Cubic-Feet Rise in U.S. Natural Gas Inventories
By Nicole Friedman
Analysts and traders expect government data scheduled for release on Thursday to show natural-gas inventories rose by
less than typical levels for this time of year.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that 78 billion cubic feet of gas were added to
storage during the week ended June 19, according to the average forecast of 17 analysts and traders surveyed by The
Wall Street Journal.
The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data for the week on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
For the June 19 week, the median estimate is for a rise of 79 bcf. Estimates ranged from an increase of 72 bcf to a
rise of 88 bcf.
The estimate for June 19 is below last year's 110-bcf build in storage for the same week, and less than the 86-bcf
five-year average build for that week.
If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of June 19 will total 2.511 trillion cubic feet, 39% above the
year-ago level and 1.6% above the five-year average for the same week.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 24, 2015 13:41 ET (17:41 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
062415 17:41 -- GMT
------
By Nicole Friedman
Analysts and traders expect government data scheduled for release on Thursday to show natural-gas inventories rose by
less than typical levels for this time of year.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that 78 billion cubic feet of gas were added to
storage during the week ended June 19, according to the average forecast of 17 analysts and traders surveyed by The
Wall Street Journal.
The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data for the week on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
For the June 19 week, the median estimate is for a rise of 79 bcf. Estimates ranged from an increase of 72 bcf to a
rise of 88 bcf.
The estimate for June 19 is below last year's 110-bcf build in storage for the same week, and less than the 86-bcf
five-year average build for that week.
If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of June 19 will total 2.511 trillion cubic feet, 39% above the
year-ago level and 1.6% above the five-year average for the same week.
Write to Nicole Friedman at nicole.friedman@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 24, 2015 13:41 ET (17:41 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
062415 17:41 -- GMT
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Dow Jones - End of Day Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Rises Ahead of Inventory Data
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices ticked higher Wednesday ahead of weekly inventory data, which is expected to show that
supplies have increased by less than is typical for this time of year.
Natural-gas futures for July delivery settled up 3.3 cents, or 1.2%, at $2.759 a million British thermal units on the
New York Mercantile Exchange.
Natural-gas stockpiles typically grow between April and October, as producers store the heating fuel ahead of the
winter, when consumption usually peaks. Producers have injected large amounts of natural gas into storage in recent
weeks, suggesting that robust production is keeping the market oversupplied.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is due to release its inventory data for the week ended Thursday. Analysts
and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect the agency to report that stockpiles grew by 78 billion cubic
feet in the week, less than the five-year average build for that week of 86 bcf.
"The market is moving sideways today in anticipation of tomorrow's number," said Aaron Calder, analyst at Gelber &
Associates, in a note. "Most likely it will show that the market remains oversupplied but the heat is creating enough
overall power generation demand to keep natural gas usage at normal levels."
Summertime heat is typically bullish for natural-gas prices, as households and offices use more gas-powered
electricity to run air-conditioning units. While weather forecasts are calling for cool temperatures in the coming two
weeks, the outlook is slightly warmer than previously expected, said Commodity Weather Group LLC in a note.
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex July $2.759 +3.3c
Nymex August $2.782 +3.6c
Nymex September $2.795 +3.4c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS SESSION
El Paso Perm $2.67-$2.735 $2.69-$2.76
El Paso SJ $2.66-$2.72 $2.665-$2.76
Henry Hub $2.745-$2.81 $2.81-$2.85
Katy $2.70-$2.74 $2.75-$2.79
SoCal $2.80-$2.96 $2.80-$2.96
Tex East M3 $1.32-$1.40 $1.475-$1.535
Transco 65 $2.75-$2.785 $2.77-$2.835
Transco Z6 $2.48-$2.65 $2.85-$2.93
Waha $2.70-$2.735 $2.73-$2.78
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 24, 2015 15:44 ET (19:44 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
062415 19:44 -- GMT
------
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices ticked higher Wednesday ahead of weekly inventory data, which is expected to show that
supplies have increased by less than is typical for this time of year.
Natural-gas futures for July delivery settled up 3.3 cents, or 1.2%, at $2.759 a million British thermal units on the
New York Mercantile Exchange.
Natural-gas stockpiles typically grow between April and October, as producers store the heating fuel ahead of the
winter, when consumption usually peaks. Producers have injected large amounts of natural gas into storage in recent
weeks, suggesting that robust production is keeping the market oversupplied.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is due to release its inventory data for the week ended Thursday. Analysts
and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect the agency to report that stockpiles grew by 78 billion cubic
feet in the week, less than the five-year average build for that week of 86 bcf.
"The market is moving sideways today in anticipation of tomorrow's number," said Aaron Calder, analyst at Gelber &
Associates, in a note. "Most likely it will show that the market remains oversupplied but the heat is creating enough
overall power generation demand to keep natural gas usage at normal levels."
Summertime heat is typically bullish for natural-gas prices, as households and offices use more gas-powered
electricity to run air-conditioning units. While weather forecasts are calling for cool temperatures in the coming two
weeks, the outlook is slightly warmer than previously expected, said Commodity Weather Group LLC in a note.
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex July $2.759 +3.3c
Nymex August $2.782 +3.6c
Nymex September $2.795 +3.4c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS SESSION
El Paso Perm $2.67-$2.735 $2.69-$2.76
El Paso SJ $2.66-$2.72 $2.665-$2.76
Henry Hub $2.745-$2.81 $2.81-$2.85
Katy $2.70-$2.74 $2.75-$2.79
SoCal $2.80-$2.96 $2.80-$2.96
Tex East M3 $1.32-$1.40 $1.475-$1.535
Transco 65 $2.75-$2.785 $2.77-$2.835
Transco Z6 $2.48-$2.65 $2.85-$2.93
Waha $2.70-$2.735 $2.73-$2.78
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 24, 2015 15:44 ET (19:44 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
062415 19:44 -- GMT
------
Dow Jones - Natural Gas Rises Off Two-Week Low
DJ Natural Gas Rises Off Two-Week Low
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices rose from a two-week low Wednesday as weather forecasts boosted expectations for
natural-gas demand.
Summertime heat is typically bullish for natural-gas prices, as households and offices use more gas-powered
electricity to run air-conditioning units. While weather forecasts are calling for cool temperatures in the coming two
weeks, the outlook is slightly warmer than previously expected, said Commodity Weather Group LLC in a note.
Natural-gas futures for July delivery recently traded up 1.4 cents, or 0.5%, at $2.740 a million British thermal
units on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Traders are also looking ahead to weekly inventory data due Thursday. Natural-gas producers have injected large
amounts of gas into storage in recent weeks, suggesting that the market is oversupplied.
However, some market watchers expect summer weather to help eat away at the surplus.
"Though Thursday's storage report ended a three-week streak of triple-digit injections, our balances indicate
injections to be lower for the next two reports," said PIRA Energy Group in a note.
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.765/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday's
range of $2.81-$2.85. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York traded in a bid-ask range of $2.65/mmBtu to
$2.70/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday's range of $2.85-$2.93.
Write to Nicole Friedman at nicole.friedman@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 24, 2015 10:10 ET (14:10 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
062415 14:10 -- GMT
------
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices rose from a two-week low Wednesday as weather forecasts boosted expectations for
natural-gas demand.
Summertime heat is typically bullish for natural-gas prices, as households and offices use more gas-powered
electricity to run air-conditioning units. While weather forecasts are calling for cool temperatures in the coming two
weeks, the outlook is slightly warmer than previously expected, said Commodity Weather Group LLC in a note.
Natural-gas futures for July delivery recently traded up 1.4 cents, or 0.5%, at $2.740 a million British thermal
units on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Traders are also looking ahead to weekly inventory data due Thursday. Natural-gas producers have injected large
amounts of gas into storage in recent weeks, suggesting that the market is oversupplied.
However, some market watchers expect summer weather to help eat away at the surplus.
"Though Thursday's storage report ended a three-week streak of triple-digit injections, our balances indicate
injections to be lower for the next two reports," said PIRA Energy Group in a note.
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.765/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday's
range of $2.81-$2.85. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York traded in a bid-ask range of $2.65/mmBtu to
$2.70/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday's range of $2.85-$2.93.
Write to Nicole Friedman at nicole.friedman@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 24, 2015 10:10 ET (14:10 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
062415 14:10 -- GMT
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