Crude Oil Technical Update - Failed Rally Attempt on Monday

The September 14 crude oil contract tried to breakout to the upside in yesterday’s trade but couldn’t close above 10 day moving average resistance.

The contract did gain .43 on the day settling at 98.08 but closed well below the 98.58 intraday high.

With 10 day moving average resistance holding on Monday, the near term trend remains down.  The 200 day moving average at 97.15 is the first area of support followed by last week’s 96.55 low.

A drop under last week’s low would turn the longer term trend back down with the 91.00-92.00 area becoming the next downside objective.

The 10 day moving average is at 97.95 today is the first area of resistance followed by 98.58-98.67.  A breakout above both resistance areas is needed to turn the near term trend back up.

Funds are still long almost 350,000 contract in the WTI market according to last Friday’s COT report.  A drop under last week’s low could initiate further selling.

Technical Indicators:  Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish

                                    Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
                                        Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish