natural gas

natural gas

Monday, November 3, 2014

Natural Gas Corner - Market Review - Shorts Get Massacred

Short position holders in the natural gas market over the past 5 sessions have been absolutely crushed as the market has reversed higher on very heavy trading volume.

The spot December 14 contract is up a whopping .445 or 12% from the 3.620 contract low set last Tuesday up to today's 4.065 early morning high.

The latest catalyst for today's gap higher open were updated forecasts calling for continued colder temperatures across the eastern half of the U.S. into this weekend that late last week were expected to recede.

The price volatility seen over the past 5 days is typical near market lows as short position holders find themselves trapped having to quickly bid up prices in order to exit the position.

The latest 6-10 and 8-14 day NWS forecasts are slightly colder than yesterday's adding further support to the market.

With 3,480 Bcf of gas currently in storage and another likely injection in this week's EIA report, the market will be fairly well supplied heading into winter.  Not as well as in past winters but ample nevertheless.

Expect continued volatility and wide price swings as the market alternates back and forth between weather forecasts and actual storage withdrawals. 

Winter heating demand has quickly arrived but could just as quickly exit pushing price back lower.  But with the high demand season for natural gas ahead, traders may not be as aggressive in selling this market back lower as they were during October.

Volatile trade over the past week may be a sign of what lies ahead over the next few months in the natural gas market.  Get ready.

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