natural gas

natural gas

Thursday, November 13, 2014

Natural Gas Technical Update - A Key Test of Underlying Market Strength Today


Natural gas prices pulled back for a third on Wednesday from the new 4-month price high set earlier in the week.

The December 14 contract has fallen .359 or 8% from the 4.544 high posted on Monday down to yesterday’s 4.185 closing price.

The 10 day moving average which held as support the past two days has been broken in early trade today at 4.190.  This is a bearish signal turning former daily lows between 4.110-4.120 into the next downside support level.

Longer term support is the 40 day moving average and the 62% Fibonacci retracement support which have converged at 3.970-4.000. 

The 10 day moving average now becomes resistance at 4.190 followed by 4.310-4.320.  Longer term resistance is the 40 day moving average at 4.400 and Monday’s 4.544 high.

Bottom line – A key test of underlying market strength coming up today after three days of selling.  Failure to hold 4.110-4.120 support could see a quick drop back toward 4.000.

Technical Indicators:  Moving Average Alignment – Neutral
                                         Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
                                         Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish

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