As long as the 6-10 and 8-14 Day NWS weather forecasts remain below-normal as they currently are, it is going to be hard to set back natural gas prices from recent highs.
Today's storage injection is expected to be high averaging +85 Bcf according to analyst surveys. This is in comparison to a 35 Bcf injection in 2013 and a 5-year average injection of 42 Bcf.
If the storage number comes in near the upper end of the estimated range, it could temporarily drop market prices similar to last week.
But with weather forecasts remaining colder than normal for much of the upper U.S., price dips should be short-lived.
Yesterday's rally stalled out below a former trend line resistance on the weekly chart near the 4.315 intraday high for the December 14 contract. This was the fourth time this trend line has been tested as resistance and the fourth time that it has held. A close above yesterday's high would be a technical signal that the longer term trend has turned back higher.
If trend line resistance continues to hold, any changes in the bullish weather forecasts back to normal or above-normal temperatures should have an immediate effect on prices. While the final seasonal low was likely set last week, the market could see a big set back if weather patterns normalize.
Longer term, the winter rally for natural gas has begun. Hedge funds will likely be big buyers on price dips along with end users.
Initial price targets on a breakout above 4.250-4.315 resistance would be the winter 13-14 highs for the current winter strip at the 4.950-5.000 level. If winter demand is similar to 2013, natural gas prices could see a repeat of last year's heightened volatility during which spot prices topped out at a 6.490 high.
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