Natural gas prices pulled back late Friday from highs reached earlier in the day with the spot December 14 contract settling nearly .090 below the morning high.
However, gains for the week were impressive as the December contract was up .169 (4.5%) over the 5 days of trade.
Most of the forward strips fell to new all-time lows last Tuesday but the market reversed back higher as an winter's first cold front has brought below normal temperatures across nearly 3/4 of the U.S.
Weather forecasts released earlier last week which called for above-normal temperatures across nearly all of the lower-48 states moderated on Friday. The above-normal zone is now forecast for the western half of the U.S. with the remaining half being forecast as normal. This change could be a supportive factor in Monday's trade.
Last week's storage injection again came in near the upper end of pre-report estimates at 87 Bcf which brings current storage to 3,480 Bcf. Storage injections over the past 4 weeks have been 89 Bcf or 30.5% larger than average injections made over the past 5 years. This year's storage injections have been record large bringing storage from an 11-year low end of 822 Bcf reached the last week of March to the current level with the possibility for another injection next week.
Trading volume last week was very heavy which is the type of price action typically seen near market turning points. While set backs are to be expected, natural gas has likely set a second and final seasonal low for 2014.
Higher than expected storage levels and record high production which reached a new all-time high of 70.6 Bcf per day in October according to Bentek are bearish factors for the market.
But as seen this week, an influx of winter heating demand for natural gas tends to override all other factors.
How high the winter rally takes natural gas prices will obviously depend on winter heating demand.
Many of the private forecasters including MDA are predicting another cold winter although not as cold as last.
Technically, a breakout above 4.150-4.200 weekly highs is needed to turn the longer term trend back up. The current high for the winter 14-15 strip (December 14-March 15) is 4.974. This high will become the upside price objective once weekly high resistance is broken.
The hedge funds are now holding a speculative long position of 149,704 contracts (futures only), down 708 from the previous week according to the Commitment of Trader's report released on Friday. A breakout above 4.150-4.200 weekly high resistance would likely bring in strong fund buying.
In closing, the strong gains last week in the natural gas market on heavy volume is indicative of the market having set a low. While the market course may not be straight up here, the winter rally looks like it has finally begun.
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