After spiking down to a new 5-year spot price low of 63.72 in early trade on Monday, the January 15 contract recovered all the losses plus 2.85 closing at 69.00.
It is still too early to tell if yesterday’s spike low was the beginning of a trend turn back higher.
Yesterday’s 69.54 high held below 70.00 resistance with the market currently down 1.00 in today’s early trade.
69.50-70.50 is the first area of resistance followed by the 10 day moving average at 72.80.
There has been only two daily closes above the 10 day moving average since late-October and the market quickly reversed back lower the following day. A sustained close back over this average could be an indication the market is bottoming.
64.00-65.00 weekly low support was briefly broken on Monday but the market closed back over this level. A close under 64.00 extending down to Monday’s 63.72 low would be a very bearish signal tuning 58.00-59.00 into the next downside support.
Monday’s Commitment of Trader’s report showed funds holding a speculative long position of 253,001 contracts, down 2,362 from the previous week. Funds remains surprisingly long as the crude oil market falls to a new 5-year low.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish
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