Seasonal Price Trend Update - New Lows During December?

It has been a very usual period of trade over the past 2 months in the natural gas market.  The market appeared to have bottomed in late-October as shown by the seasonal trend chart but selling last week put this assumption in jeopardy.

The natural gas market last week fell to a new lows on nearly every forward contract.  But from a spot contract basis, the 3.541 low set last October has yet to be broken.

Once sustained winter demand for natural gas finally arrives, the trend for the market should be sideways to higher into the beginning months of 2015.

This year's choppy trade is likely a sign of things to come which would be even more price volatility.

Anyone who believes that the natural gas market has topped for the winter is soon to be proven very wrong.  One change in the forecast back to normal or below-normal temperatures and the shorts will get crushed.  You can only pull back a bow string so far before it letting go. 

This winter could end up being even more volatile than last given recent price swings in the market.