Trade in the natural gas market cannot get any more boring than it has been over the past few sessions. Above-normal weather forecasts are enough to keep prices in place but not enough to push them higher from the 3-month low reached earlier this week.
Tomorrow's EIA storage report which last week came in lower than expected could be the spark that pushes the market out of the current range.
The average analyst's guess for Thursday's storage report is for a 58 Bcf injection with a range of estimates of between 47-64 Bcf. Last year's injection was 53 Bcf and the 5-year average has been 61.
Current storage of 3,030 Bcf is expected to reach the 3850+ range with 11 weeks to go in the injection season possibly surpassing the 4,000 Bcf mark for the first time ever.
The EIA will also release the weekly production number tomorrow. Dry gas production has fallen 5 out of the past 10 weeks falling by 4.7%. It hasn't been a straight down decline but the record low natural gas rig count could be finally impacting production.,
The back end of the forward price curve has fallen to new lows this week which may portend the spot market also testing its early-May 2.443 low in upcoming trade.
Price volatility will hopefully improve. It can't possibly go any lower.
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