natural gas

natural gas

Thursday, June 4, 2015

Dow Jones Natural Gas - Post-EIA Report Commentary

DJ Natural Gas Rebounds Despite Data Showing Second-Largest Surplus on Record


  By Timothy Puko


  Natural gas prices dipped, but then rebounded into gains for the day after federal data showed last week produced the
second-highest weekly surplus on record.

  Analysts and a trader said the market may have bounced from hitting its one-month intraday low of $2.557 a million
British thermal units. The front-month July contract recently rebounded all the way to gains of 1 cent, or 0.4%, at
$2.644/mmBtu on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

  The market has been overwhelmed by bearish traders for months, and the crowded trade itself has sparked some brief
rallies. When a bearish trade gets crowded, waves of traders often close out at once all trying to protect themselves
against a reversal at seemingly marginal signs of a rebound. That doesn't mean the market is fundamentally different,
analysts and a trader said.

  "We're just respecting an old low," said Dean Hazelcorn, trader at the brokerage Coquest Inc. in Dallas. "People are
not reloading their guns to get long."

  Data released Thursday suggests the market is oversupplied by about 3 bcf a day last week, according to analysts'
estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said storage levels grew by 132 billion cubic feet in the week
ended May 15. That is more than 40% larger than the 92-bcf five-year average addition for the week and also more than
the 123-bcf median average from forecasters surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.

  The EIA update is widely considered one of the best measures of supply and demand for the natural-gas market. Gas
prices have been too high to convince power plants to use more of it and absorb near-record supplies, and Memorial Day
also probably cut demand by keeping businesses and schools closed, analysts said.

  "The market was ready for a large injection, but it's still extremely bearish," said Kent Bayazitoglu, analyst at
Gelber & Associates. "We're not going to see (a) strong rebound."

  Last week's addition brought storage levels to 2.2 trillion cubic feet, 51% more than a year ago and 1% above the
five-year average.


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  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

  June 04, 2015 11:33 ET (15:33 GMT)

  Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

060415 15:33 -- GMT

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