natural gas

natural gas

Monday, October 5, 2015

Natural Gas Corner - Technical Update - New 3-Year Low Set In Last Week's Trade




Natural gas last week fell to the lowest price level since June 2012 as the spot November 15 contract was heavily sold.

A failed rally attempt last Monday was followed by strong selling into Friday’s close as the November contract bottomed out at a 2.403 low settling the week at 2.451.  For the five days of trade, the November contract was down .180 or 6.8%.

The initial downside objective for the bearish triangle pattern on the weekly chart was met last week with the drop to the 2.442 point 1 low.

There are currently no signs of a market low but weakness last week is the type of “capitulation” selling typical near market bottoms.

2.385-2.403 is the first area of support today followed by weekly chart support at 2.230-2.250.

The current overnight high at 2.473 is the first area of resistance today with longer term resistance at the 10 day moving average currently at 2.570.  A close back above the 10 day average could be a signal the market is bottoming.

The fund long position in natural gas plummeted last week by 21% as the market fell  to a new 3-year low.  Friday’s Commitment of Trader report showed the fund long position as of last Tuesday’s close at 79,132 contracts, down 20,727 from the previous week.

Technical Indicators:  Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
                                         Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
                                         Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish

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