DJ Analysts See 100 Billion-Cubic Feet Add to U.S. Natural-Gas Inventories
By Timothy Puko
Analysts expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to show natural-gas inventories last week rose about
on par with their five-year average increase for that time of the year.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that storage levels grew by 100 billion cubic feet
of gas during the week ended Sept. 25, according to the average forecast of 17 analysts and traders surveyed by The
Wall Street Journal.
The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data for the week on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
For the Sept. 25 week, the median estimate is for an addition of 101 bcf. Estimates range from an addition of 88 bcf
to an addition of 112 bcf.
The estimate for Sept. 25 compares to 110 bcf added to storage for the same week last year and the 94-bcf five-year
average addition for that week.
If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of Sept. 25 totaled 3.5 trillion cubic feet, 15% above levels from
a year ago and 4.6% above the five-year average for the same week.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 30, 2015 15:49 ET (19:49 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
093015 19:49 -- GMT
------
natural gas
Wednesday, September 30, 2015
Dow Jones - Natural Gas Prices Retreat On Mild Weather
DJ Natural Gas Prices Retreat on Mild Weather
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas prices dropped to a five-month low on Wednesday, as forecasts for a mild start of autumn softened
expectations for demand and pushed gas to its worst quarter of the year.
Prices for the front-month November contract fell 6.2 cents, or 2.4%, to $2.524 a million British thermal units on
the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the lowest settlement since April 28.
That was also its largest one-day loss in two weeks. Natural gas has now fallen in four of the past five quarters,
losing 30.8 cents per mmBtu, or 11%, since June 30.
Production has only decreased incrementally from its record pace, and that oversupply is suffocating prices as
autumn arrives, said Frank Clements, co-owner of Meridian Energy Brokers Inc.
A Wall Street Journal survey shows analysts and traders expect federal data coming Thursday will show the largest
weekly surplus of natural gas since early June, putting stockpiles 4.6% above their five-year average level for this
week of the year. "There's nothing to keep this market from going lower," Mr. Clements said.
Weather forecasts suggest above-normal temperatures for large parts of the country in the first two weeks of
October. It is a reversal from earlier this week when they showed much larger patches of below-normal temperatures
settling in.
That weather is likely to soften energy consumption, analysts said. Natural gas is largely dependent on weather
cold enough to spur demand for gas-fired heating or hot enough to require air conditioning from gas-powered electricity
plants.
"The current forecasts are not likely to result in a major call on [natural gas] for either heating or cooling
related demand," Dominick Chirichella, analyst at the Energy Management Institute, said in a note.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 30, 2015 15:52 ET (19:52 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
093015 19:52 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas prices dropped to a five-month low on Wednesday, as forecasts for a mild start of autumn softened
expectations for demand and pushed gas to its worst quarter of the year.
Prices for the front-month November contract fell 6.2 cents, or 2.4%, to $2.524 a million British thermal units on
the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the lowest settlement since April 28.
That was also its largest one-day loss in two weeks. Natural gas has now fallen in four of the past five quarters,
losing 30.8 cents per mmBtu, or 11%, since June 30.
Production has only decreased incrementally from its record pace, and that oversupply is suffocating prices as
autumn arrives, said Frank Clements, co-owner of Meridian Energy Brokers Inc.
A Wall Street Journal survey shows analysts and traders expect federal data coming Thursday will show the largest
weekly surplus of natural gas since early June, putting stockpiles 4.6% above their five-year average level for this
week of the year. "There's nothing to keep this market from going lower," Mr. Clements said.
Weather forecasts suggest above-normal temperatures for large parts of the country in the first two weeks of
October. It is a reversal from earlier this week when they showed much larger patches of below-normal temperatures
settling in.
That weather is likely to soften energy consumption, analysts said. Natural gas is largely dependent on weather
cold enough to spur demand for gas-fired heating or hot enough to require air conditioning from gas-powered electricity
plants.
"The current forecasts are not likely to result in a major call on [natural gas] for either heating or cooling
related demand," Dominick Chirichella, analyst at the Energy Management Institute, said in a note.
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 30, 2015 15:52 ET (19:52 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
093015 19:52 -- GMT
------
Dow Jones - Natural Gas Retreats On Mild Weather
DJ Natural Gas Retreats on Mild Weather
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas prices are sliding as a mild start to fall softens expectations for demand.
Prices for the front-month November contract fell 3.3 cents, or 1.3%, to $2.553 a million British thermal units on
the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gas is back within 10 cents of the three-year low closing price it hit April 27,
retreating from a brief surge that started the week.
Weather forecasts are suggesting above-normal temperatures for large parts of the country in the first two weeks of
October. It is a reversal from earlier this week when they showed much larger patches of below-normal temperatures
settling in.
Mild weather can soften energy consumption, especially in the autumn and spring when homes and offices are likely to
use less air conditioning and gas-fired heating.
"The current forecasts are not likely to result in a major call on (natural gas) for either heating or cooling
related demand," Dominick Chirichella, analyst at the Energy Management Institute, said in a note.
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.46/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday's
range of $2.53-$2.54. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York last traded at $2.43/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday's
range of $1.95-$2.25.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 30, 2015 10:18 ET (14:18 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
093015 14:18 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
Natural gas prices are sliding as a mild start to fall softens expectations for demand.
Prices for the front-month November contract fell 3.3 cents, or 1.3%, to $2.553 a million British thermal units on
the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gas is back within 10 cents of the three-year low closing price it hit April 27,
retreating from a brief surge that started the week.
Weather forecasts are suggesting above-normal temperatures for large parts of the country in the first two weeks of
October. It is a reversal from earlier this week when they showed much larger patches of below-normal temperatures
settling in.
Mild weather can soften energy consumption, especially in the autumn and spring when homes and offices are likely to
use less air conditioning and gas-fired heating.
"The current forecasts are not likely to result in a major call on (natural gas) for either heating or cooling
related demand," Dominick Chirichella, analyst at the Energy Management Institute, said in a note.
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $2.46/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday's
range of $2.53-$2.54. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York last traded at $2.43/mmBtu, compared with Tuesday's
range of $1.95-$2.25.
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 30, 2015 10:18 ET (14:18 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
093015 14:18 -- GMT
------
Latest 30 and 60 Day Weather Forecasts - No Early Start For Winter Heating Demand
The latest 30 and 60 day MDA Earthsat weather forecasts to not suggest an early start to the 2015-16 heating season.
The downside in natural gas could get rough for the bulls in upcoming trade. However, current weakness should be the final leg down in the market before a post-summer seasonal low is set.
The downside in natural gas could get rough for the bulls in upcoming trade. However, current weakness should be the final leg down in the market before a post-summer seasonal low is set.
Natural Gas Corner - Technical Update - New Contract Low Set In Overnight Trade
The natural gas market remains very weak as the November
contract has dropped to a new contract low in the overnight session.
Early selling today follows a large price drop on Tuesday during
which the November 15 contract lost .084 (3.1%) to settle at 2.586.
The 2.554 overnight and new contract low is the first area
of support today followed by 2.521 which was the low set by the now expired
October 15 contract.
Longer term support is the 2015 spot contract low at
2.443. This low is also the initial downside
measuring objective for the bearish triangle pattern on the weekly chart. If 2.443 support is broken, 2.230-2.250 will
become the next longer term support area.
The 2.611 overnight high is the first area of resistance
followed by the 10 day moving average at 2.645.
Current weakness should be the final leg down in the market before
a post-summer seasonal low is set.
Technical Indicators:
Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long
Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish
Tuesday, September 29, 2015
Natural Gas Corner - Market Review
A brief rally on Monday was followed by heavy selling during today's session as the new front month November contract lost just over 3% on the day.
Above or below-normal temperatures begin to mean less during the month of October as the average U.S. temperature is near 55 degrees. It is during this time that weakness can come in the market ahead of the winter heating season.
How low the market price may go will depend on upcoming storage injections and how soon winter demand arrives.
Last week's triple digit storage injection has again put storage on pace to reach and possibly surpass the peak storage high of 3,929 Bcf set in 2012.
But as witnessed in early trade on Monday, any whiff of winter heating demand will quickly reverse the present slide in the market.
Above or below-normal temperatures begin to mean less during the month of October as the average U.S. temperature is near 55 degrees. It is during this time that weakness can come in the market ahead of the winter heating season.
How low the market price may go will depend on upcoming storage injections and how soon winter demand arrives.
Last week's triple digit storage injection has again put storage on pace to reach and possibly surpass the peak storage high of 3,929 Bcf set in 2012.
But as witnessed in early trade on Monday, any whiff of winter heating demand will quickly reverse the present slide in the market.
Dow Jones - End of Day Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Prices Down as Fall Forecast Warms Up
By Christian Berthelsen
A burgeoning rally in natural gas prices deflated Tuesday as forecasts moderated for the first cool weather of the
fall, with expectations fading for a strong start to heating season.
Natural gas futures for the new front-month November contract ended down 8.4 cents, or 3.1%, to $2.586 a million
British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange, more than erasing gains booked the day before.
Weather forecasts on Monday showed the first below-normal temperatures of the fall season beginning to creep in
across a wide swath spanning from the northwest to the southeast, and falling temperatures in key eastern and Midwest
demand regions. But those outlooks began to moderate on Tuesday, with temperatures in most of those regions returning
to normal over the next two weeks.
"Yesterday's rally has fizzled," research consultancy Gelber & Associates said in a note. Tuesday's weather outlook
"took a fair amount of cold out of the forecasts."
Natural gas prices have been locked in a tight range for most of spring and summer amid weak demand and surging U.S.
production and supplies. Demand is expected to begin rising with the onset of cooler fall weather.
Natural gas stockpiles have been growing after a season of strong production and mild weather that limited demand, a
factor that has weighed on the market throughout the spring and summer. The Energy Information Administration said last
week that the U.S. has 3.44 trillion cubic feet of gas in storage, 15.7% above year-ago levels and 4.5% above average
for this time of year.
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex November $2.586 -8.4c
Nymex December $2.763 -7.4c
Nymex January $2.884 -6.7c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS SESSION
El Paso Perm $2.45-$2.515 $2.51-$2.555
El Paso SJ $2.45-$2.50 $2.48-$2.55
Henry Hub $2.53-$2.54 $2.62-$2.65
Katy $2.48-$2.55 $2.50-$2.57
SoCal $2.62-$2.65 $2.68-$2.7575
Tex East M3 $1.30-$1.40 $1.25-$1.33
Transco 65 $2.49-$2.53 $2.545-$2.575
Transco Z6 $1.95-$2.25 $2.00-$2.15
Waha $2.43-$2.50 $2.49-$2.53
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 29, 2015 15:27 ET (19:27 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092915 19:27 -- GMT
------
By Christian Berthelsen
A burgeoning rally in natural gas prices deflated Tuesday as forecasts moderated for the first cool weather of the
fall, with expectations fading for a strong start to heating season.
Natural gas futures for the new front-month November contract ended down 8.4 cents, or 3.1%, to $2.586 a million
British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange, more than erasing gains booked the day before.
Weather forecasts on Monday showed the first below-normal temperatures of the fall season beginning to creep in
across a wide swath spanning from the northwest to the southeast, and falling temperatures in key eastern and Midwest
demand regions. But those outlooks began to moderate on Tuesday, with temperatures in most of those regions returning
to normal over the next two weeks.
"Yesterday's rally has fizzled," research consultancy Gelber & Associates said in a note. Tuesday's weather outlook
"took a fair amount of cold out of the forecasts."
Natural gas prices have been locked in a tight range for most of spring and summer amid weak demand and surging U.S.
production and supplies. Demand is expected to begin rising with the onset of cooler fall weather.
Natural gas stockpiles have been growing after a season of strong production and mild weather that limited demand, a
factor that has weighed on the market throughout the spring and summer. The Energy Information Administration said last
week that the U.S. has 3.44 trillion cubic feet of gas in storage, 15.7% above year-ago levels and 4.5% above average
for this time of year.
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex November $2.586 -8.4c
Nymex December $2.763 -7.4c
Nymex January $2.884 -6.7c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS SESSION
El Paso Perm $2.45-$2.515 $2.51-$2.555
El Paso SJ $2.45-$2.50 $2.48-$2.55
Henry Hub $2.53-$2.54 $2.62-$2.65
Katy $2.48-$2.55 $2.50-$2.57
SoCal $2.62-$2.65 $2.68-$2.7575
Tex East M3 $1.30-$1.40 $1.25-$1.33
Transco 65 $2.49-$2.53 $2.545-$2.575
Transco Z6 $1.95-$2.25 $2.00-$2.15
Waha $2.43-$2.50 $2.49-$2.53
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 29, 2015 15:27 ET (19:27 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092915 19:27 -- GMT
------
Dow Jones - Natural Gas Prices Give Back Gains As Weather Outlook Moderates
DJ Natural Gas Prices Give Back Gains as Weather Outlook Moderates
By Christian Berthelsen
Natural gas prices fell back Tuesday as forecasts moderated for the first cool weather of the fall, with expectations
fading for a strong start to heating season.
Natural gas futures for the new front-month November contract fell 4.8 cents, or 1.8%, to $2.6220 a million British
thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange, giving back much of the gains booked the day before.
Natural gas prices have been locked in a tight range for most of spring and summer amid weak demand and surging U.S.
production and supplies. Demand is expected to begin rising with the onset of cooler fall weather.
"This market has wasted little time in relinquishing yesterday's price gains," research consultancy Ritterbusch and
Associates said in a note. "It would appear that the market over reacted to a brief cold spell."
Weather forecasts on Monday showed the first below-normal temperatures of the fall season beginning to creep in
across a wide swath spanning from the northwest to the southeast, and falling temperatures in key eastern and Midwest
demand regions. But those outlooks began to moderate on Tuesday, with temperatures in most of those regions returning
to normal over the next two weeks.
Natural gas stockpiles have been growing after a season of strong production and mild weather that limited demand, a
factor that has weighed on the market throughout the spring and summer. The Energy Information Administration said last
week that the U.S. has 3.44 trillion cubic feet of gas in storage, 15.7% above year-ago levels and 4.5% above average
for this time of year.
Write to Christian Berthelsen at christian.berthelsen@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 29, 2015 11:09 ET (15:09 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092915 15:09 -- GMT
------
By Christian Berthelsen
Natural gas prices fell back Tuesday as forecasts moderated for the first cool weather of the fall, with expectations
fading for a strong start to heating season.
Natural gas futures for the new front-month November contract fell 4.8 cents, or 1.8%, to $2.6220 a million British
thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange, giving back much of the gains booked the day before.
Natural gas prices have been locked in a tight range for most of spring and summer amid weak demand and surging U.S.
production and supplies. Demand is expected to begin rising with the onset of cooler fall weather.
"This market has wasted little time in relinquishing yesterday's price gains," research consultancy Ritterbusch and
Associates said in a note. "It would appear that the market over reacted to a brief cold spell."
Weather forecasts on Monday showed the first below-normal temperatures of the fall season beginning to creep in
across a wide swath spanning from the northwest to the southeast, and falling temperatures in key eastern and Midwest
demand regions. But those outlooks began to moderate on Tuesday, with temperatures in most of those regions returning
to normal over the next two weeks.
Natural gas stockpiles have been growing after a season of strong production and mild weather that limited demand, a
factor that has weighed on the market throughout the spring and summer. The Energy Information Administration said last
week that the U.S. has 3.44 trillion cubic feet of gas in storage, 15.7% above year-ago levels and 4.5% above average
for this time of year.
Write to Christian Berthelsen at christian.berthelsen@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 29, 2015 11:09 ET (15:09 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092915 15:09 -- GMT
------
Natural Gas Corner - Technical Update - Rally Failure On Monday
The new front month November 15 natural gas contract started
out Monday’s session on the upside gaining over 3% in early trade. But
has been the case for the several months, the rally failed to hold as the
market sold back off the morning highs into the session’s close.
For the day, the November contract was up .039 but bearishly
settled at 2.670, near the daily low.
Daily close back under the 10 day moving average on Monday
keeps the near term trend down with last week’s 2.591 low being the first area
of support. Longer term support is the 2.521 low set by the now expired
October 15 contract followed by the 2015 spot low of 2.443 set in
early-May. The 2.443 weekly low remains the downside measuring objective
for the bearish triangle on the weekly chart.
The 10 day moving average at 2.670 is the first area of
resistance today followed by Monday’s 2.720 high. Longer term resistance
is the 40 day moving average currently at 2.790.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment –
Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish
Monday, September 28, 2015
Dow Jones - Natural Gas Gains As Autumn Creeps Into The Forecast
DJ Natural Gas Gains as Autumn Creeps Into Forecast -- Market Talk
15:19 EDT - Advanced weather forecasts are beginning to show the first cool fall temperatures nudging into the
picture in the coming weeks, and natural gas are picking up on the anticipated heating demand. The market has been
stuck in the doldrums for months with abundant production and limited demand, but cooling temperatures in the northeast
and Midwest over the next couple weeks could finally break it out of a slump. Futures have gained 3.5% since touching
multi-month lows last week, with the most-active November contract rising 1.5% Monday to $2.67/mmBtu. Still, it's going
to take some cold temps to make a dent in supplies, with inventories 4.5% above year-ago levels.
(christian.berthelsen@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 28, 2015 15:19 ET (19:19 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092815 19:19 -- GMT
------
15:19 EDT - Advanced weather forecasts are beginning to show the first cool fall temperatures nudging into the
picture in the coming weeks, and natural gas are picking up on the anticipated heating demand. The market has been
stuck in the doldrums for months with abundant production and limited demand, but cooling temperatures in the northeast
and Midwest over the next couple weeks could finally break it out of a slump. Futures have gained 3.5% since touching
multi-month lows last week, with the most-active November contract rising 1.5% Monday to $2.67/mmBtu. Still, it's going
to take some cold temps to make a dent in supplies, with inventories 4.5% above year-ago levels.
(christian.berthelsen@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 28, 2015 15:19 ET (19:19 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092815 19:19 -- GMT
------
Natural Gas Corner - Seasonal Price Trend Review
The timing is right for a second and final seasonal low for 2015 to be set in the natural gas market.
As seen today, the first whiff of winter heating demand and the reversal back higher will be swift.
As seen today, the first whiff of winter heating demand and the reversal back higher will be swift.
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