natural gas
Tuesday, September 30, 2014
Dow Jones - End of Day Natural Gas Commentary
DJ Natural-Gas Rally Ends as Demand Expectations Soften
By Timothy Puko
NEW YORK--The natural-gas market's four-day rally ended Tuesday as weakening demand expectations encouraged traders
to pull back.
The front-month November contract settled down 3.3 cents, or 0.8%, at $4.121 a million British thermal units on the
New York Mercantile Exchange. Trading stayed within an 8-cent range and the contract drifted lower after setting a new
two-month intraday high of $4.178/mmBtu.
Prices pulled back slightly after weather forecasts showed warmer expectations than they had the day before. Cold
weather should boost demand for home heating, and fears of an early or severe winter have recently made traders jump.
Tuesday they balked at how high prices got. Some thought the market was inflated by technical trading in the face of
record production.
"There's a lot of new supply hitting the market and not a lot of demand," Aaron Calder, senior market analyst at
energy-consulting firm Gelber & Associates in Houston, said in a note. "At these prices, power generators do not want
to use natural gas, and the new supply is free to be placed into storage."
Fear over momentum did prevent larger losses, though, traders said. Prices pushed up through several resistance
levels that may have made technical traders hesitate to buy, and that made some bears cautious, keeping trading
relatively tight.
"I still think we're going lower...but you can't get in the way right now," said Scott Gettleman, an independent
trader in New York.
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 30, 2014 16:05 ET (20:05 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
093014 20:05 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
NEW YORK--The natural-gas market's four-day rally ended Tuesday as weakening demand expectations encouraged traders
to pull back.
The front-month November contract settled down 3.3 cents, or 0.8%, at $4.121 a million British thermal units on the
New York Mercantile Exchange. Trading stayed within an 8-cent range and the contract drifted lower after setting a new
two-month intraday high of $4.178/mmBtu.
Prices pulled back slightly after weather forecasts showed warmer expectations than they had the day before. Cold
weather should boost demand for home heating, and fears of an early or severe winter have recently made traders jump.
Tuesday they balked at how high prices got. Some thought the market was inflated by technical trading in the face of
record production.
"There's a lot of new supply hitting the market and not a lot of demand," Aaron Calder, senior market analyst at
energy-consulting firm Gelber & Associates in Houston, said in a note. "At these prices, power generators do not want
to use natural gas, and the new supply is free to be placed into storage."
Fear over momentum did prevent larger losses, though, traders said. Prices pushed up through several resistance
levels that may have made technical traders hesitate to buy, and that made some bears cautious, keeping trading
relatively tight.
"I still think we're going lower...but you can't get in the way right now," said Scott Gettleman, an independent
trader in New York.
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 30, 2014 16:05 ET (20:05 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
093014 20:05 -- GMT
------
Dow Jones - Morning Natural Gas Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Rally Slows on Weakening Demand Expectations
By Timothy Puko
NEW YORK--The natural-gas market's week-long rally slowed Tuesday morning as weakening demand expectations encouraged
traders to hold steady.
Natural gas for November delivery inched up 0.4 cent, or 0.1%, at $4.158 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange. The move adds to a two-month high the market set Monday, with Tuesday's prices peaking at
$4.178/mmBtu, the highest intraday price since July 10.
Prices pulled back slightly after weather forecasts showed warmer expectations than they had the day before. Cool
temperatures and fears of an early winter had some traders thinking that demand for home heating should drive prices
higher.
Once prices broke $4 on Monday, momentum and technical trading kept pushing prices higher, traders and analysts said.
That has some thinking the market is inflated with record production still likely to overwhelm demand, capping the
rally and keeping prices within a 7-cent range on Tuesday.
"I still think we're going lower...but you can't get in the way right now," said Scott Gettleman, an independent
trader in New York.
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $4.15/mmBtu, compared with Monday's
range of $4.00-$4.03. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York traded in a bid-ask range of $2.05-$2.20/mmBtu,
compared with Monday's range of $2.04 to $2.08.
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 30, 2014 09:27 ET (13:27 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
093014 13:27 -- GMT
------
By Timothy Puko
NEW YORK--The natural-gas market's week-long rally slowed Tuesday morning as weakening demand expectations encouraged
traders to hold steady.
Natural gas for November delivery inched up 0.4 cent, or 0.1%, at $4.158 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange. The move adds to a two-month high the market set Monday, with Tuesday's prices peaking at
$4.178/mmBtu, the highest intraday price since July 10.
Prices pulled back slightly after weather forecasts showed warmer expectations than they had the day before. Cool
temperatures and fears of an early winter had some traders thinking that demand for home heating should drive prices
higher.
Once prices broke $4 on Monday, momentum and technical trading kept pushing prices higher, traders and analysts said.
That has some thinking the market is inflated with record production still likely to overwhelm demand, capping the
rally and keeping prices within a 7-cent range on Tuesday.
"I still think we're going lower...but you can't get in the way right now," said Scott Gettleman, an independent
trader in New York.
Physical gas for next-day delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $4.15/mmBtu, compared with Monday's
range of $4.00-$4.03. Cash prices at the Transco Z6 hub in New York traded in a bid-ask range of $2.05-$2.20/mmBtu,
compared with Monday's range of $2.04 to $2.08.
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 30, 2014 09:27 ET (13:27 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
093014 13:27 -- GMT
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Natural Gas Technical Update - Market Currently Testing "Breakout" Resistance
The November 14 natural gas contract has now closed higher three consecutive sessions and has moved up to a new 1-month high in the overnight session.
Most of the gains made over the past three days came during Monday’s trade during which the November contract moved sharply higher gaining .125 (3.1%) to settle at 4.154.
The new 1-month high of 4.172 posted overnight is 9 ticks above the previous 4.163 high set in August but follow through buying so far has been absent.
A breakout above 4.172 up to 4.200 would be a very bullish indicator for the market likely turning the longer term trend back higher. The next area of resistance above 4.200 is the 200 day moving average at 4.355.
If resistance holds, 4.100-4.110 will become the first area of support with longer term support at the 10 and 40 day moving averages currently at 4.005 and 3.990.
This is a big technical test of resistance currently in progress and may be the beginning of the winter rally back higher. But if resistance holds as it has over the past 11 weeks, the market could be in for a big sell off back lower.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Crude Oil Technical Update - Bullish Breakout On Monday - Market Low May Be In
The November 14 crude oil contract broke out above 40 day moving average and trend line resistance at the upper-93.00 level on Monday. If the breakout holds over the next few days, the market trend may have turned back higher.
In yesterday’s trade, the November contract closed above the 40 day moving average for the first time since July 8th settling the day at 94.57, up 1.03.
The trend for the market will turn up if the November contract can hold above former trend line resistance as well as the 40 day moving average as support currently between 93.50-93.60.
The next upside resistance is the 95.07 late-August high followed by the 200 day moving average at 95.70.
The bulls appear back in control following yesterday’s breakout. The next few sessions should be a good indication as to whether or not the breakout is for real.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Monday, September 29, 2014
Natural Gas Corner Day In Review
It has been quite interesting to watch price action in the natural gas market over the past 3 sessions.
Natural gas prices have been range bound for the past 11 weeks as larger than normal storage injections since mid-April continue to pressure prices lower.
On the other side, the seasonal price trend for the market to bottom during the fall months and the possibility for an early start to winter with lower than normal stockpiles of gas in storage have been supportive factors for natural gas.
The new spot November 14 natural gas contract last Thursday spiked down to a 3.874 low immediately following release of the weekly EIA storage report at 9:30 am central. The storage number came in at a surprisingly large 97 Bcf (billion cubic feet) in comparison to pre-report analysts' guesstimates of between 81-96 Bcf , an 82 injection in 2013 and a 5-year average injection of 79 Bcf.
Last week's injection was large not only in terms pre-report expectations but also in comparison to what analysts had expected ahead of the report.
The minute after the EIA report was released and the market sold off, it soon began to move back higher. By Thursday's close, the November contract had gained .049 or 1.3%. And this came on the day a bearish injection number was reported.
When a market doesn't react as expected following a market moving report, the trend may be reversing.
Natural gas prices held firm during Friday's trade overcoming early selling pressure to close the day up .015. For the week, the November contract gained just over 3%.
In today's trade, the November contract moved sharply higher as buyers must have been encouraged by last week's strong close. News reports suggested buying was related to worries about an early start to winter heating demand. But today's latest 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast by the National Weather Service does not confirm this outlook.
Nevertheless, the market may be pricing in the possibility for a colder winter.
As an aside to the possibility for a colder winter was a trip I took this weekend to the Northeastern Georgia mountains for a hiking and camping trip. A local farmer and friend of mine told me the hornets are building their winter nests underground this year. Their nests are typically in the trees and other hard to reach places. But this year, the nests are underground. My friend said in his 50+ years he doesn't remember seeing this and thinks this is going to be a winter for the record books. At least for Northeast Georgia.
The November contract today topped out at a 4.162 high, one tick below the previous high set on August 28th.
The inability to rally above the August high today could be the start of a turn back lower. With weather forecasts largely benign and weekly storage injections large, there isn't much besides the possibility for an early start to winter to get the market moving higher.
However, recent strength over the past 3 days following Thursday's unexpectedly large storage injection could be a turning point for the market. A breakout this week above recent highs could be the start of a seasonal rally back higher.
Natural gas prices have been range bound for the past 11 weeks as larger than normal storage injections since mid-April continue to pressure prices lower.
On the other side, the seasonal price trend for the market to bottom during the fall months and the possibility for an early start to winter with lower than normal stockpiles of gas in storage have been supportive factors for natural gas.
The new spot November 14 natural gas contract last Thursday spiked down to a 3.874 low immediately following release of the weekly EIA storage report at 9:30 am central. The storage number came in at a surprisingly large 97 Bcf (billion cubic feet) in comparison to pre-report analysts' guesstimates of between 81-96 Bcf , an 82 injection in 2013 and a 5-year average injection of 79 Bcf.
Last week's injection was large not only in terms pre-report expectations but also in comparison to what analysts had expected ahead of the report.
The minute after the EIA report was released and the market sold off, it soon began to move back higher. By Thursday's close, the November contract had gained .049 or 1.3%. And this came on the day a bearish injection number was reported.
When a market doesn't react as expected following a market moving report, the trend may be reversing.
Natural gas prices held firm during Friday's trade overcoming early selling pressure to close the day up .015. For the week, the November contract gained just over 3%.
In today's trade, the November contract moved sharply higher as buyers must have been encouraged by last week's strong close. News reports suggested buying was related to worries about an early start to winter heating demand. But today's latest 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast by the National Weather Service does not confirm this outlook.
Nevertheless, the market may be pricing in the possibility for a colder winter.
As an aside to the possibility for a colder winter was a trip I took this weekend to the Northeastern Georgia mountains for a hiking and camping trip. A local farmer and friend of mine told me the hornets are building their winter nests underground this year. Their nests are typically in the trees and other hard to reach places. But this year, the nests are underground. My friend said in his 50+ years he doesn't remember seeing this and thinks this is going to be a winter for the record books. At least for Northeast Georgia.
The November contract today topped out at a 4.162 high, one tick below the previous high set on August 28th.
The inability to rally above the August high today could be the start of a turn back lower. With weather forecasts largely benign and weekly storage injections large, there isn't much besides the possibility for an early start to winter to get the market moving higher.
However, recent strength over the past 3 days following Thursday's unexpectedly large storage injection could be a turning point for the market. A breakout this week above recent highs could be the start of a seasonal rally back higher.
Latest 6-10 and 8-14 Day National Weather Service Forecasts - Not Particularly Bullish
The latest weather forecasts from the NWS certainly do not suggest an early start to winter.
Dow Jones - End of Day Natural Gas Commentary
DJ Natural-Gas Futures Rally as Market Catches Glimpse of Autumn
By Christian Berthelsen
Natural-gas prices rose to their highest levels in more than two months on Monday as forecasts for cold weather over
the northern Midwest in the coming weeks prompted expectations of the season's first gas-fired heating demand.
Natural gas for November delivery rose 12.5 cents, or 3.1%, to $4.1540 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange. The settlement was the highest since July 9, and the day's rally was the largest since June
12. The market has gained nearly 9% in the last four trading sessions.
The market opened higher with the adoption of November as the new front-month contract, since it was trading higher
than the just-expired October contract, and gained momentum as prices broke through levels where they previously
stalled.
"The market takes on strength in reaction to chatter about seasonal demand," said Gene McGillian, an analyst with
wholesale brokerage Tradition Energy.
Weather forecasts are mixed for the coming weeks, with large swaths of above-normal temperatures over much of the
South, Midwest and Eastern Seaboard in the coming days but then turning cooler further into mid-October. It was the
appearance of below-normal temperatures over the northern Midwest two weeks out that prompted the rally.
Still, some analysts remain skeptical of an early onslaught of fall and winter weather and note that natural-gas
production remains robust, with pipeline data indicating the possibility of massive increases in stored supplies in the
final weeks of the season when producers and utilities add to inventories.
"Traders are eschewing the long-term fundamental picture to focus on the short-term prospect of early heating
demand," research consultancy Gelber & Associates said in a note.
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex November $4.154 +12.5c
Nymex December $4.227 +11.3c
Nymex January $4.292 +10.5c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS DAY
El Paso Perm $3.8275-$3.93 $3.7125-$3.78
El Paso SJ $3.83-$3.89 $3.7575-$3.82
Henry Hub $4.00-$4.03 $3.87-$3.9275
Katy $3.95-$4.01 $3.88-$3.95
SoCal $4.07-$4.25 $3.97-$4.05
Tex East M3 $1.95-$2.08 $1.56-$2.00
Transco 65 $3.975-$4.02 $3.8675-$3.89
Transco Z6 $2.04-$2.08 $1.62-$2.05
Waha $3.88-$3.98 $3.84-$3.865
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 29, 2014 16:07 ET (20:07 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092914 20:07 -- GMT
------
By Christian Berthelsen
Natural-gas prices rose to their highest levels in more than two months on Monday as forecasts for cold weather over
the northern Midwest in the coming weeks prompted expectations of the season's first gas-fired heating demand.
Natural gas for November delivery rose 12.5 cents, or 3.1%, to $4.1540 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange. The settlement was the highest since July 9, and the day's rally was the largest since June
12. The market has gained nearly 9% in the last four trading sessions.
The market opened higher with the adoption of November as the new front-month contract, since it was trading higher
than the just-expired October contract, and gained momentum as prices broke through levels where they previously
stalled.
"The market takes on strength in reaction to chatter about seasonal demand," said Gene McGillian, an analyst with
wholesale brokerage Tradition Energy.
Weather forecasts are mixed for the coming weeks, with large swaths of above-normal temperatures over much of the
South, Midwest and Eastern Seaboard in the coming days but then turning cooler further into mid-October. It was the
appearance of below-normal temperatures over the northern Midwest two weeks out that prompted the rally.
Still, some analysts remain skeptical of an early onslaught of fall and winter weather and note that natural-gas
production remains robust, with pipeline data indicating the possibility of massive increases in stored supplies in the
final weeks of the season when producers and utilities add to inventories.
"Traders are eschewing the long-term fundamental picture to focus on the short-term prospect of early heating
demand," research consultancy Gelber & Associates said in a note.
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex November $4.154 +12.5c
Nymex December $4.227 +11.3c
Nymex January $4.292 +10.5c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS DAY
El Paso Perm $3.8275-$3.93 $3.7125-$3.78
El Paso SJ $3.83-$3.89 $3.7575-$3.82
Henry Hub $4.00-$4.03 $3.87-$3.9275
Katy $3.95-$4.01 $3.88-$3.95
SoCal $4.07-$4.25 $3.97-$4.05
Tex East M3 $1.95-$2.08 $1.56-$2.00
Transco 65 $3.975-$4.02 $3.8675-$3.89
Transco Z6 $2.04-$2.08 $1.62-$2.05
Waha $3.88-$3.98 $3.84-$3.865
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 29, 2014 16:07 ET (20:07 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092914 20:07 -- GMT
------
Natural Gas Technical Update - Weekly Resistance Being Tested
The natural gas market gained nearly 4% in last week’s trade settling near the upper end of the weekly range.
The weekly natural gas chart shows the sideways range the market has been in over the past few months now entering into an 11th week.
The spot November 14 contract is approaching a key resistance level at the 4.150-4.200 level. This resistance is a former trend line support that was broken in July.
A rally higher in late-August topped out at a 4.101 high holding below resistance. A breakout and close back over former trend line support is needed to turn the longer term trend back up. If this occurs, the second and final seasonal low for the market should be set.
Failure to rally above 4.150-4.200 resistance over the next few sessions could see another sell off back toward 11-week support at the 3.750-3.800 level later in the week.
Market Talk - Stress Test Coming For Natural Gas? - Dow Jones
DJ 'Stress Test' Coming for Natural Gas? -- Market Talk
11:09 EDT - BNP Paribas warns that a stress test could be coming and price spikes are still possible for the natural
gas market. Stockpiles in the Gulf Coast area are about 20% lower than their five-year average for this time of year,
potentially hampering ability to supply northern markets during the winter's peak home-heating demand, the bank says. A
historically cold winter east of the Rockies led to price spikes above $6/mmBtu to start the year. "Seasonal price
spikes are not off the table," says Teri Viswanath, BNP's natural-gas strategist in New York. "In our opinion, consumer
markets in the Midwest and Northeast remain singularly vulnerable given the stock short-fall." (Tim.Puko@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 29, 2014 11:09 ET (15:09 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092914 15:09 -- GMT
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Service:DJE/EN ID:DJE01moY40929 Page:80000
FSN:0 Comments Energy General
80000 M/NND M/TPX N/ALMT N/CMD N/DJCS N/DJG N/DJGS N/DJI N/DJMT N/DJN N/DJWI N/D
N N/DOI N/DPG N/ENTR N/ENY N/IPR N/MKT N/NGS N/NRG N/OSCM N/OSEN N/OSOV N/WED N/
WER P/ACMD P/AENE P/AEQI P/BFX P/RCC P/WMMI
2014-09-29 15:09:15 UTC
^^^^^^
11:09 EDT - BNP Paribas warns that a stress test could be coming and price spikes are still possible for the natural
gas market. Stockpiles in the Gulf Coast area are about 20% lower than their five-year average for this time of year,
potentially hampering ability to supply northern markets during the winter's peak home-heating demand, the bank says. A
historically cold winter east of the Rockies led to price spikes above $6/mmBtu to start the year. "Seasonal price
spikes are not off the table," says Teri Viswanath, BNP's natural-gas strategist in New York. "In our opinion, consumer
markets in the Midwest and Northeast remain singularly vulnerable given the stock short-fall." (Tim.Puko@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 29, 2014 11:09 ET (15:09 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092914 15:09 -- GMT
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Service:DJE/EN ID:DJE01moY40929 Page:80000
FSN:0 Comments Energy General
80000 M/NND M/TPX N/ALMT N/CMD N/DJCS N/DJG N/DJGS N/DJI N/DJMT N/DJN N/DJWI N/D
N N/DOI N/DPG N/ENTR N/ENY N/IPR N/MKT N/NGS N/NRG N/OSCM N/OSEN N/OSOV N/WED N/
WER P/ACMD P/AENE P/AEQI P/BFX P/RCC P/WMMI
2014-09-29 15:09:15 UTC
^^^^^^
Natural Gas Technical Update - Market Attempting Upside Breakout Today
The new front month November 14 natural gas contract is currently higher in overnight trade testing upside resistance between 4.100-4.163.
With the October 14 contract expiring on Friday, the support and resistance areas for the November 14 contract will need to shifted higher. While the October contract had been trading in a sideways range between 3.740 support and 4.100 resistance over the past 11 weeks, the November contract trading range has been higher.
The trading range for the November contract has been between 3.786-3.845 as support and 4.100-4.163 as resistance. A breakout from this range is needed to determine the next direction for the market.
An upside breakout above 4.100-4.163 resistance would turn the longer term trend back higher with the 200 day moving average at 4.355 becoming the next upside resistance.
If today’s rally stalls under resistance as it has 4 times over the past 11 weeks, the November contract will likely sell back off in a retest downside support. A breakout under support in the mid-3.800 area would keep the primary market trend down turning the 3.786 July low followed by the 3.658 November contract low into the next downside support areas.
Funds added to existing long position in the natural gas market according to Friday’s Commitment of
Trader’s report. The report showed funds long 192,316 contracts (futures only), up 7,224 contracts from the previous week. Funds are going to likely try to play the typical seasonal rally in the natural gas market and may be active buyers on a breakout above 4.100-4.160 resistance.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Crude Oil Technical Update - Point 4 of Triangle Completed On Friday
The November 14 crude oil contract may have completed the fourth and final point of triangle pattern at last week’s 93.86 high. A turn back down in this week’s trade is now needed to confirm the pattern.
The triangle has four points labeled on the chart beginning with the 89.56 point 1 low and ending with last Friday’s 93.86 high. Triangle have a 75% chance of being a continuation rather than a reversal pattern. In this case, the continuation would be for a downside breakout below lower trend line support at the 90.90-91.00 area.
If 90.90-91.00 support is broken, the downside measuring objective would be for the November contract to trade into the 85.00-85.50 area.
There is a chance the breakout will instead come to the upside above triangle trend line resistance at the 93.70 level. This resistance coincides with the 40 day moving average at 93.55. A breakout above these two resistance areas would turn the 99.00-99.50 level into the upside measuring objective for the triangle. It would also turn the longer term market trend back up.
Funds lightly liquidated existing long positions in the crude oil market according to Friday’s COT report. Funds sold 1,229 contracts from the previous week and are currently long 296,05 contracts (futures only).
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Commitment of Trader's Report - Funds Adding To Existing Long Positions In Natural Gas
Funds were long 395,000+ contracts on the June high had to liquidate as the market fell to new 2014 lows over following weeks.
As the market has now been in a sideways range for 11 weeks, the funds have been mostly silent.
The funds will likely attempt to play the typical winter rally higher in the natural gas market.
An upside breakout above lower-4.000 resistance would be the technical trigger to add to positions.
Last week funds bought 7,224 contracts and have a current long position of 192,316 contracts (futures only).
Friday, September 26, 2014
Dow Jones - Market Talk - Natural Gas Closes Higher During October Contract Expiration
DJ Natural Gas Turns Positive as Contract Expires -- Market Talk
15:01 EDT - October natural gas contract went off the board with a gain on Friday, ending up 1.3c or 0.3% at $3.984 a
million British thermal units, after trading down earlier in the session. Analysts say some short-covering likely in
the rally, but there are also conflicting weather forecasts for the start of October -- and one of them predicting a
bullish cold snap for the start of October and the fall that could prompt early and robust gas-fired heating demand at
a time when the industry is in the final stages of trying to rebuild stockpiles depleted by last winter. But other
forecasts are predicting above-normal temperatures into early October, and inventories have been rising fast.
(christian.berthelsen@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 26, 2014 15:01 ET (19:01 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092614 19:01 -- GMT
------
15:01 EDT - October natural gas contract went off the board with a gain on Friday, ending up 1.3c or 0.3% at $3.984 a
million British thermal units, after trading down earlier in the session. Analysts say some short-covering likely in
the rally, but there are also conflicting weather forecasts for the start of October -- and one of them predicting a
bullish cold snap for the start of October and the fall that could prompt early and robust gas-fired heating demand at
a time when the industry is in the final stages of trying to rebuild stockpiles depleted by last winter. But other
forecasts are predicting above-normal temperatures into early October, and inventories have been rising fast.
(christian.berthelsen@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 26, 2014 15:01 ET (19:01 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092614 19:01 -- GMT
------
Dow Jones - Morning Natural Gas Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Slips as Warm Forecast Fades
By Christian Berthelsen
Natural-gas prices edged down Friday as forecasts for hot Midwest weather in the coming days eased, weighing on
expectations for late-season gas demand to power air conditioning.
Natural gas for October delivery was down 4.1 cents, or 1%, at $3.93 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. The October contract expires at the end of trading Friday, and most of the volume in the market
moved into the November contract, which was down 3.2 cents, or 0.8%, at $3.9820/mmBtu.
Market prices had been bid up recently by forecasts for a spate of late-season warm weather over the key demand areas
of the Midwest and the Northeast, but those forecasts began to ease Friday, with outlooks for the highest temperatures
in the Midwest through early October beginning to cool off. Forecasters now say cooling trends should begin to emerge
across the Midwest in the 10-day outlook as autumn gets under way.
"Some forecasts beyond next week are beginning to take on a more neutral appearance, as warm temperatures are
beginning to be pushed out," Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
Analysts also cited Thursday's addition of 97 billion cubic feet of natural gas to stored inventories as a bearish
factor in the market. The addition was larger than consensus estimates, and analysts say the final weeks of storage
season could bring additional outsized gains in stockpiles.
Inventories are rebuilding from the severe U.S. winter of 2013-14 that prompted record demand and huge withdrawals
from inventories. As of Thursday's data, stockpiles stand at 2.988 trillion cubic feet, 13% below average for this time
of year, though analysts expect inventories will be adequately restored by the start of heating season in the coming
weeks.
In the cash market, physical gas for next-day delivery at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $3.91 a
million British thermal units, just above Thursday's range of $3.80-$3.90. Gas at the Transco Z6 hub in New York traded
in a bid-offer range of $1.45-$1.70, below Thursday's range of $1.83-$2.05.
Write to Christian Berthelsen at christian.berthelsen@wsj.com
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
September 26, 2014 09:34 ET (13:34 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092614 13:34 -- GMT
------
By Christian Berthelsen
Natural-gas prices edged down Friday as forecasts for hot Midwest weather in the coming days eased, weighing on
expectations for late-season gas demand to power air conditioning.
Natural gas for October delivery was down 4.1 cents, or 1%, at $3.93 a million British thermal units on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. The October contract expires at the end of trading Friday, and most of the volume in the market
moved into the November contract, which was down 3.2 cents, or 0.8%, at $3.9820/mmBtu.
Market prices had been bid up recently by forecasts for a spate of late-season warm weather over the key demand areas
of the Midwest and the Northeast, but those forecasts began to ease Friday, with outlooks for the highest temperatures
in the Midwest through early October beginning to cool off. Forecasters now say cooling trends should begin to emerge
across the Midwest in the 10-day outlook as autumn gets under way.
"Some forecasts beyond next week are beginning to take on a more neutral appearance, as warm temperatures are
beginning to be pushed out," Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.
Analysts also cited Thursday's addition of 97 billion cubic feet of natural gas to stored inventories as a bearish
factor in the market. The addition was larger than consensus estimates, and analysts say the final weeks of storage
season could bring additional outsized gains in stockpiles.
Inventories are rebuilding from the severe U.S. winter of 2013-14 that prompted record demand and huge withdrawals
from inventories. As of Thursday's data, stockpiles stand at 2.988 trillion cubic feet, 13% below average for this time
of year, though analysts expect inventories will be adequately restored by the start of heating season in the coming
weeks.
In the cash market, physical gas for next-day delivery at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana last traded at $3.91 a
million British thermal units, just above Thursday's range of $3.80-$3.90. Gas at the Transco Z6 hub in New York traded
in a bid-offer range of $1.45-$1.70, below Thursday's range of $1.83-$2.05.
Write to Christian Berthelsen at christian.berthelsen@wsj.com
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
September 26, 2014 09:34 ET (13:34 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092614 13:34 -- GMT
------
Natural Gas Technical Update - Lower-4.000 Resistance Holds Again Overnight
Today’s expiring October 1 4 natural gas contract traded in a fairly wide .151 intraday range during yesterday’s trade. After spiking down to a 3.823 low following release of the weekly storage report, the contract moved steadily higher into the close topping out at a 3.974 high and settling at 3.971, up .060.
The October contract rallied up to a 3.989 overnight high but has since turned back lower in early trade today. The inability to hold yesterday’s gains as the market again topped out at lower-4.000 resistance is a bearish indicator heading into today’s trade.
The 10 and 40 day moving averages at 3.910-3.915 are the first areas of support followed by the previous daily lows in the 3.790-3.810 area.
A drop under weekly low support between 3.740-3.800 would keep the market trend bearish with the next downside objective then becoming the 3.589 contract low set last November.
A breakout above 4.000-4.101 resistance would turn the longer term trend back higher ahead of the upcoming winter.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Crude Oil Technical Update - 93.60-93.90 "Breakout" Resistance Today
The November 14 crude oil contract moved higher toward key resistance in yesterday’s trade rallying up to a 93.54 morning high. But the market couldn’t maintain the upward momentum as it traded back lower into the close with the November contract settling at 92.53, down .27.
Early buying today has the November contract trading just under the 93.00 level. The 40 day moving average at 93.60 extending up to the upper triangle trend line near 93.90 will remain key resistance today. If this resistance holds, the fourth and final point of a triangle pattern will be complete.
Triangle has a 75% chance of being continuation rather than reversal patterns. In this case the continuation would be down toward the 84.00-85.00 level.
If the November contract instead breaks out to the upside above 93.90, the triangle will be negated and the longer term trend will turn back higher.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Thursday, September 25, 2014
Natural Gas Corner - Day In Review - Bullish Surprise?
The storage number came in on the high side of pre-report estimates at 97 Bcf in comparison to the range of analysts' estimates of between 81-96 Bcf, averaging 92 Bcf.
The 1 minute chart above shows how the spot October 14 contract traded following release of the report.
It fell to a 3.823 low immediately after the release of the report..
And 6 minutes later it was trading at a 3.906 high ending the day at 3.971, up .060.
The market may have already discounted today's high storage injection. And it may sell back off from lower-4.000 resistance if reached as it has over the past 10 weeks.
But today's rally higher following release of a decidedly bearish weekly storage number may be a signal the focus is now shifting toward something else.
And today's rally could also be a first indication the market trend is finally turning higher ahead of winter after 10 weeks of sideways trade.
Whether or not the market can extend today's bullish gains will be a good sign regarding the strength of today's rally. Failure tomorrow or Monday to move higher will likely lead to new price lows for natural gas prices before a final seasonal low is set.
But if today's rally can continue, the natural gas market could be ready for a seasonal move back higher into early-2015.
Dow Jones - End of Day Natural Gas Commentary - Focus Shifting To Upcoming Winter Demand
DJ Natural-Gas Prices Rise as Winter Comes Into Focus
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices rose on Thursday, as traders weighed rapidly growing supplies against concerns that
another cold winter will spark high demand for the heating fuel.
Natural gas for October delivery settled up 6 cents, or 1.5%, at $3.971 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange.
Producers added 97 billion cubic feet of natural gas into storage in the week ended Sept. 19, the U.S. Energy
Information Administration said on Thursday. Analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had called for a
92-bcf injection. The addition was larger than any of the survey projections.
Though natural-gas supplies were largely depleted by record demand for the heating fuel last winter, inventories have
rebuilt unusually quickly this spring and summer. Production has been higher than expected, and mild weather has kept
demand low for gas-powered electric air-conditioning.
However, gas prices pared losses after the report's release despite the larger-than-expected build.
The National Weather Service's forecast for the first two weeks of October is showing unusually cold weather, which
could be sparking some concern about robust demand, said Aaron Calder, analyst at Gelber & Associates in Houston.
Injections have been this summer, but inventories are still below average. As of Sept. 19, stocks stood at 2.988
trillion cubic feet, 13% below the five-year average for the week.
"The upward move is definitely winter focused," Mr. Calder said. "An early start to winter when we already don't have
... as much as we're used to, would be bullish." However, Mr. Calder noted, other forecast models are showing more
moderate weather in early October.
The October contract expires on Friday. The more-actively traded November contract settled up 4.9 cents, or 1.2%, at
$4.014/mmBtu.
"In the next week, November will be the spot month," said Tom Saal, a broker at INTL FCStone Latin America in Miami.
"You're transitioning into the demand season."
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex October $3.971 +6.0c
Nymex November $4.014 +4.9c
Nymex December $4.097 +4.7c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS DAY
El Paso Perm $3.75-$3.805 $3.72-$3.815
El Paso SJ $3.78-$3.82 $3.73-$3.88
Henry Hub $3.80-$3.90 $3.82-$3.86
Katy $3.81-$3.89 $3.83-$3.88
SoCal $4.00-$4.16 $3.99-$4.17
Tex East M3 $1.78-$1.96 $1.80-$2.05
Transco 65 $3.81-$3.86 $3.7275-$3.835
Transco Z6 $1.83-$2.05 $1.845-$1.90
Waha $3.81-$3.83 $3.80-$3.82
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 25, 2014 15:02 ET (19:02 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092514 19:02 -- GMT
------
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices rose on Thursday, as traders weighed rapidly growing supplies against concerns that
another cold winter will spark high demand for the heating fuel.
Natural gas for October delivery settled up 6 cents, or 1.5%, at $3.971 a million British thermal units on the New
York Mercantile Exchange.
Producers added 97 billion cubic feet of natural gas into storage in the week ended Sept. 19, the U.S. Energy
Information Administration said on Thursday. Analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had called for a
92-bcf injection. The addition was larger than any of the survey projections.
Though natural-gas supplies were largely depleted by record demand for the heating fuel last winter, inventories have
rebuilt unusually quickly this spring and summer. Production has been higher than expected, and mild weather has kept
demand low for gas-powered electric air-conditioning.
However, gas prices pared losses after the report's release despite the larger-than-expected build.
The National Weather Service's forecast for the first two weeks of October is showing unusually cold weather, which
could be sparking some concern about robust demand, said Aaron Calder, analyst at Gelber & Associates in Houston.
Injections have been this summer, but inventories are still below average. As of Sept. 19, stocks stood at 2.988
trillion cubic feet, 13% below the five-year average for the week.
"The upward move is definitely winter focused," Mr. Calder said. "An early start to winter when we already don't have
... as much as we're used to, would be bullish." However, Mr. Calder noted, other forecast models are showing more
moderate weather in early October.
The October contract expires on Friday. The more-actively traded November contract settled up 4.9 cents, or 1.2%, at
$4.014/mmBtu.
"In the next week, November will be the spot month," said Tom Saal, a broker at INTL FCStone Latin America in Miami.
"You're transitioning into the demand season."
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex October $3.971 +6.0c
Nymex November $4.014 +4.9c
Nymex December $4.097 +4.7c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS DAY
El Paso Perm $3.75-$3.805 $3.72-$3.815
El Paso SJ $3.78-$3.82 $3.73-$3.88
Henry Hub $3.80-$3.90 $3.82-$3.86
Katy $3.81-$3.89 $3.83-$3.88
SoCal $4.00-$4.16 $3.99-$4.17
Tex East M3 $1.78-$1.96 $1.80-$2.05
Transco 65 $3.81-$3.86 $3.7275-$3.835
Transco Z6 $1.83-$2.05 $1.845-$1.90
Waha $3.81-$3.83 $3.80-$3.82
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 25, 2014 15:02 ET (19:02 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092514 19:02 -- GMT
------
Dow Jones - Post-Report Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Holds Losses on Larger-Than-Expected Supply Gain
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices stayed lower Thursday after weekly government data showed that supplies grew more than
expected last week.
Producers added 97 billion cubic feet of natural gas into storage in the week ended Sept. 19, the U.S. Energy
Information Administration said Thursday. Analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had called for a
92-bcf injection. The addition was larger than any of the survey projections.
Though natural-gas supplies were largely depleted by record demand for the heating fuel last winter, inventories have
rebuilt unusually quickly this spring and summer. Production has been higher than expected, and mild weather has kept
demand low for gas-powered electric air-conditioning.
As of Sept. 19, stocks stood at 2.988 trillion cubic feet, 13% below the five-year average for the week.
However, prices pared losses after the report's release despite the larger-than-expected build.
Natural gas for October delivery recently traded down 5 cents, or 1.3%, to $3.861 a million British thermal units on
the New York Mercantile Exchange.
With the October contract set to expire Friday and the October options contract expiring at settlement Thursday,
traders may be looking ahead to the winter heating season, said Tom Saal, a broker at INTL FCStone Latin America in
Miami.
"In the next week, November will be the spot month," he said. "You're transitioning into the demand season."
Moderate weather has kept natural-gas prices within a range between $3.75 and $4/mmBtu for most of the summer.
"People are looking ahead to winter," said John Woods, president of JJ Woods Associates and a Nymex floor trader. But
"we're centered right where we should be."
Write to Nicole Friedman at nicole.friedman@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 25, 2014 11:18 ET (15:18 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092514 15:18 -- GMT
------
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices stayed lower Thursday after weekly government data showed that supplies grew more than
expected last week.
Producers added 97 billion cubic feet of natural gas into storage in the week ended Sept. 19, the U.S. Energy
Information Administration said Thursday. Analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had called for a
92-bcf injection. The addition was larger than any of the survey projections.
Though natural-gas supplies were largely depleted by record demand for the heating fuel last winter, inventories have
rebuilt unusually quickly this spring and summer. Production has been higher than expected, and mild weather has kept
demand low for gas-powered electric air-conditioning.
As of Sept. 19, stocks stood at 2.988 trillion cubic feet, 13% below the five-year average for the week.
However, prices pared losses after the report's release despite the larger-than-expected build.
Natural gas for October delivery recently traded down 5 cents, or 1.3%, to $3.861 a million British thermal units on
the New York Mercantile Exchange.
With the October contract set to expire Friday and the October options contract expiring at settlement Thursday,
traders may be looking ahead to the winter heating season, said Tom Saal, a broker at INTL FCStone Latin America in
Miami.
"In the next week, November will be the spot month," he said. "You're transitioning into the demand season."
Moderate weather has kept natural-gas prices within a range between $3.75 and $4/mmBtu for most of the summer.
"People are looking ahead to winter," said John Woods, president of JJ Woods Associates and a Nymex floor trader. But
"we're centered right where we should be."
Write to Nicole Friedman at nicole.friedman@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 25, 2014 11:18 ET (15:18 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092514 15:18 -- GMT
------
EIA Weekly Storage Injection - 97- On The High End of Pre-Report Estimates
For the week ended
Sep 19:
EIA Injection - 97 BCF
Last Year's Injection - 82 BCF
5 Yr Avg Injection - 79 BCF
Range of Estimates - 81 BCF to 96 BCF
Avg Estimate - 92 BCF
Total Gas in Storage - 2.988 TCF
EIA Injection - 97 BCF
Last Year's Injection - 82 BCF
5 Yr Avg Injection - 79 BCF
Range of Estimates - 81 BCF to 96 BCF
Avg Estimate - 92 BCF
Total Gas in Storage - 2.988 TCF
Dow Jones - Morning Natural Gas Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Slips Ahead of Inventory Report
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural gas slipped early Thursday ahead of weekly inventory data expected to show a larger-than-average
build in supplies.
Natural gas for October delivery recently fell 4.8 cents, or 1.2%, to $3.863 a million British thermal units on the
New York Mercantile Exchange.
Though natural-gas supplies were largely depleted by record demand for the heating fuel last winter, inventories have
rebuilt unusually quickly this spring and summer. Production has been higher than expected, and mild weather has kept
demand low for gas-powered electric air-conditioning.
As of Sept. 12, natural-gas supplies stood at 2.891 trillion cubic feet, 13% below the five-year average for the
week, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data for the week ended Sept. 19 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Analysts and traders expect the report to show that natural-gas stockpiles grew by 92 billion cubic feet, according
to a Wall Street Journal survey.
If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of Sept. 19 would total 2.982 trillion cubic feet, 12% below the
year-before level and 13% below the five-year average for the same week.
"The market remains very comfortable with the rate of injections so far this year," Dominick Chirichella, analyst at
the Energy Management Institute, said in a note.
However, stockpiles will still be below average levels by the start of the winter heating season, Teri Viswanath,
director of commodity strategy for natural gas at BNP Paribas SA, said in a note.
"We suspect that these supply concerns will likely push prices above the very narrow $3.75 to $4.00/MMBtu range...as
traders look beyond the injection season to the winter ahead," she said.
Futures trading could see additional volatility Thursday because the October natural-gas options contract expires
with the session's settlement, Ms. Viswanath said, and the futures contract expires Friday.
Natural gas for next-day delivery at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana recently traded at $3.89/mmBtu, according
to Intercontinental Exchange Inc., versus Wednesday's average of $3.8422/mmBtu.
Natural gas for next-day delivery at Transcontinental Zone 6 in New York traded between $1.60 and $2.05/mmBtu,
compared with $1.8563/mmBtu Wednesday.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 25, 2014 09:15 ET (13:15 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092514 13:15 -- GMT
------
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural gas slipped early Thursday ahead of weekly inventory data expected to show a larger-than-average
build in supplies.
Natural gas for October delivery recently fell 4.8 cents, or 1.2%, to $3.863 a million British thermal units on the
New York Mercantile Exchange.
Though natural-gas supplies were largely depleted by record demand for the heating fuel last winter, inventories have
rebuilt unusually quickly this spring and summer. Production has been higher than expected, and mild weather has kept
demand low for gas-powered electric air-conditioning.
As of Sept. 12, natural-gas supplies stood at 2.891 trillion cubic feet, 13% below the five-year average for the
week, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data for the week ended Sept. 19 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Analysts and traders expect the report to show that natural-gas stockpiles grew by 92 billion cubic feet, according
to a Wall Street Journal survey.
If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of Sept. 19 would total 2.982 trillion cubic feet, 12% below the
year-before level and 13% below the five-year average for the same week.
"The market remains very comfortable with the rate of injections so far this year," Dominick Chirichella, analyst at
the Energy Management Institute, said in a note.
However, stockpiles will still be below average levels by the start of the winter heating season, Teri Viswanath,
director of commodity strategy for natural gas at BNP Paribas SA, said in a note.
"We suspect that these supply concerns will likely push prices above the very narrow $3.75 to $4.00/MMBtu range...as
traders look beyond the injection season to the winter ahead," she said.
Futures trading could see additional volatility Thursday because the October natural-gas options contract expires
with the session's settlement, Ms. Viswanath said, and the futures contract expires Friday.
Natural gas for next-day delivery at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana recently traded at $3.89/mmBtu, according
to Intercontinental Exchange Inc., versus Wednesday's average of $3.8422/mmBtu.
Natural gas for next-day delivery at Transcontinental Zone 6 in New York traded between $1.60 and $2.05/mmBtu,
compared with $1.8563/mmBtu Wednesday.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 25, 2014 09:15 ET (13:15 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092514 13:15 -- GMT
------
Natural Gas Technical Update - Range Bounding - Moving Average Resistance Holds On Wednesday
The October 14 natural gas contract rallied off weekly low support for a fifth time in Wednesday’s trade moving back up toward moving average resistance.
The October contract bottomed out at a 3.796 early morning low yesterday but then reversed back higher into the close settling at 3.911, up .095 or 2.5%.
Yesterday’s daily close came in the middle of 10 and 40 day moving average resistance at 3.900-3.920 which has held in the overnight session. A breakout above yesterday’s 3.922 high would turn the lower-4.000 level into the next upside resistance.
If early weakness in the market continues, the 3.740-3.800 area will become support as it has over the past 10 weeks. A breakout below 3.740 would keep the primary market trend down with the 3.589 contract low then becoming the next downside support.
Resistance over the past 10 weeks has been at the 4.000-4.101 with five rally attempts during this time all stalling out at this resistance. A breakout above 4.101 is needed to turn the longer term trend back higher.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Crude Oil Technical Update - 93.70-94.00 Critical Resistance Today
The November 14 crude oil contract traded lower for most of Wednesday’s session but closed higher on the day as late day buying came into the market.
The November contract was also finally able to breakout above 10 day moving average resistance which had held the previous two days settling at 92.80, up 1.24.
Buying has continued overnight moving the November contract up toward a key area of resistance.
This resistance is the 40 day moving average at 93.70 followed closely behind by a trend line near the 94.00 level.
If the rally stalls below 94.00, the fourth and final point of the triangle which has been forming on the chart since early September will be complete. The triangle is labeled on the chart with points 1-4. If this triangle does form, it would likely be a continuation pattern pointing toward lower prices.
On the bullish side, there is an equally strong chance for the November contract to break out above 94.00 resistance. If this occurs, the triangle will be negated and the longer trend for the market will turn back higher.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Wednesday, September 24, 2014
Natural Gas Corner - Day In Review
Price weakness earlier today was met with a wave of day end buying possibly related to expiration of the October 14 natural gas options. Volatility could continue tomorrow with expiration of the October futures contract.
Fundamentally there wasn't much to move the market as weather forecasts have turned mildly bearish with above normal temperatures expected across much of the eastern U.S. For the month of September, above-normal temps especially in the north mean very little in terms of increased demand of natural gas for cooling.
The market did rally higher today from weekly chart support at the 3.740-3.800 level basis the spot October 14 contract that has been tested 6 times over the past 10 weeks holding each time. As support held again, the market reversed back higher today. The question now is if resistance at the 4.000-4.101 level can be broken?
Tomorrow's pre-report analysts' estimates for the EIA weekly storage report are fairly wide at between 81 - 96 Bcf with a median estimate of +92 Bcf. If the market continues to see such strong injections as have been reported over the past 3 weeks but really since mid-April, new price lows will likely be set before a final seasonal low is posted.
Fundamentally there wasn't much to move the market as weather forecasts have turned mildly bearish with above normal temperatures expected across much of the eastern U.S. For the month of September, above-normal temps especially in the north mean very little in terms of increased demand of natural gas for cooling.
The market did rally higher today from weekly chart support at the 3.740-3.800 level basis the spot October 14 contract that has been tested 6 times over the past 10 weeks holding each time. As support held again, the market reversed back higher today. The question now is if resistance at the 4.000-4.101 level can be broken?
Tomorrow's pre-report analysts' estimates for the EIA weekly storage report are fairly wide at between 81 - 96 Bcf with a median estimate of +92 Bcf. If the market continues to see such strong injections as have been reported over the past 3 weeks but really since mid-April, new price lows will likely be set before a final seasonal low is posted.
Dow Jones - End of Day Natural Gas Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Rises But Holds in Range Ahead of Inventory Data
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices gained Wednesday but held below $4 a million British thermal units ahead of weekly
government storage data, which is expected to show another large stockpile gain.
Natural gas for October delivery settled up 9.5 cents, or 2.5%, at $3.911/mmBtu on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Moderate weather has kept natural-gas prices within a range between $3.75 and $4/mmBtu for most of the summer.
Natural-gas demand is highly dependent on weather, as hot weather prompts demand for gas-powered electricity to run
air-conditioners and cold weather leads to use of natural gas as a heating fuel.
The weather is expected to stay mild in the next two weeks.
"Nothing has changed in the weather data to lead to a surge in prices," said NatGasWeather.com in a note. "With only
a couple days left to trade the October contract, some position squaring could have aided the rise" in prices on
Wednesday.
The so-called shoulder season between summer and winter is a peak period for producers to replenish storage supplies
before heating demand kicks in.
"The market is just kind of treading water," said Gene McGillian, broker and analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford,
Conn. "We probably have to get through the next four weeks, and then we'll see how the market reacts as winter really
closes in."
As of Sept. 12, natural-gas inventories stood 13% below the five-year average for the week. The U.S. Energy
Information Administration is set to release storage data for the week ended Sept. 19 on Thursday.
Analysts and traders expect the report to show that natural-gas stockpiles grew by 92 billion cubic feet, according
to a Wall Street Journal survey.
If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of Sept. 19 would total 2.982 trillion cubic feet, 12% below the
year-ago level and 13% below the five-year average for the same week.
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex October $3.911 +9.5c
Nymex November $3.965 +9.6c
Nymex December $4.050 +9.0c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS DAY
El Paso Perm $3.72-$3.815 $3.82-$3.96
El Paso SJ $3.73-$3.88 $3.85-$3.915
Henry Hub $3.82-$3.86 $3.875-$3.93
Katy $3.83-$3.88 $3.875-$3.935
SoCal $3.99-$4.17 $4.07-$4.25
Tex East M3 $1.80-$2.05 $1.92-$2.075
Transco 65 $3.7275-$3.835 $3.86-$3.8875
Transco Z6 $1.845-$1.90 $1.95-$2.05
Waha $3.80-$3.82 $3.87-$3.90
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 24, 2014 15:49 ET (19:49 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092414 19:49 -- GMT
------
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices gained Wednesday but held below $4 a million British thermal units ahead of weekly
government storage data, which is expected to show another large stockpile gain.
Natural gas for October delivery settled up 9.5 cents, or 2.5%, at $3.911/mmBtu on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Moderate weather has kept natural-gas prices within a range between $3.75 and $4/mmBtu for most of the summer.
Natural-gas demand is highly dependent on weather, as hot weather prompts demand for gas-powered electricity to run
air-conditioners and cold weather leads to use of natural gas as a heating fuel.
The weather is expected to stay mild in the next two weeks.
"Nothing has changed in the weather data to lead to a surge in prices," said NatGasWeather.com in a note. "With only
a couple days left to trade the October contract, some position squaring could have aided the rise" in prices on
Wednesday.
The so-called shoulder season between summer and winter is a peak period for producers to replenish storage supplies
before heating demand kicks in.
"The market is just kind of treading water," said Gene McGillian, broker and analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford,
Conn. "We probably have to get through the next four weeks, and then we'll see how the market reacts as winter really
closes in."
As of Sept. 12, natural-gas inventories stood 13% below the five-year average for the week. The U.S. Energy
Information Administration is set to release storage data for the week ended Sept. 19 on Thursday.
Analysts and traders expect the report to show that natural-gas stockpiles grew by 92 billion cubic feet, according
to a Wall Street Journal survey.
If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of Sept. 19 would total 2.982 trillion cubic feet, 12% below the
year-ago level and 13% below the five-year average for the same week.
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex October $3.911 +9.5c
Nymex November $3.965 +9.6c
Nymex December $4.050 +9.0c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS DAY
El Paso Perm $3.72-$3.815 $3.82-$3.96
El Paso SJ $3.73-$3.88 $3.85-$3.915
Henry Hub $3.82-$3.86 $3.875-$3.93
Katy $3.83-$3.88 $3.875-$3.935
SoCal $3.99-$4.17 $4.07-$4.25
Tex East M3 $1.80-$2.05 $1.92-$2.075
Transco 65 $3.7275-$3.835 $3.86-$3.8875
Transco Z6 $1.845-$1.90 $1.95-$2.05
Waha $3.80-$3.82 $3.87-$3.90
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 24, 2014 15:49 ET (19:49 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092414 19:49 -- GMT
------
Dow Jones - Analysts' Estimates For Tomorrow's EIA Natural Gas Storage Report
DJ Analysts See 92-Billion-Cubic-Feet Rise in U.S. Natural Gas Inventories
By Nicole Friedman
Analysts and traders expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to show natural gas inventories rose by
more-than-typical levels for this time of year.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that 92 billion cubic feet of gas were added to
storage during the week ended Sept. 19, according to the average forecast of 18 analysts and traders surveyed by The
Wall Street Journal.
The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data for the week on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
For the Sept. 19 week, the median estimate is for a rise of 92 bcf. Estimates range from an increase of 81 bcf to a
rise of 96 bcf.
The estimate for Sept. 19 is above last year's 82-bcf build in storage for the same week, and more than the 79-bcf
five-year average build for that week.
If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of Sept. 19 would total 2.982 trillion cubic feet, 12% below the
year-ago level and 13% below the five-year average for the same week.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 24, 2014 13:40 ET (17:40 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092414 17:40 -- GMT
------
By Nicole Friedman
Analysts and traders expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to show natural gas inventories rose by
more-than-typical levels for this time of year.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that 92 billion cubic feet of gas were added to
storage during the week ended Sept. 19, according to the average forecast of 18 analysts and traders surveyed by The
Wall Street Journal.
The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data for the week on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
For the Sept. 19 week, the median estimate is for a rise of 92 bcf. Estimates range from an increase of 81 bcf to a
rise of 96 bcf.
The estimate for Sept. 19 is above last year's 82-bcf build in storage for the same week, and more than the 79-bcf
five-year average build for that week.
If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of Sept. 19 would total 2.982 trillion cubic feet, 12% below the
year-ago level and 13% below the five-year average for the same week.
Write to Nicole Friedman at nicole.friedman@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 24, 2014 13:40 ET (17:40 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092414 17:40 -- GMT
------
Dow Jones - Morning Natural Gas Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Quiet Amid Mild Weather
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural gas traded near flat Wednesday as neutral weather kept demand expectations subdued.
Natural gas for October delivery recently traded up 1.1 cents, or 0.3%, at $3.827 a million British thermal units on
the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Natural-gas prices have held in a tight range in recent months as a cooler-than-average summer reduced demand for
air-conditioning, lowering the need for gas-powered electricity. And winter demand for natural gas as a heating fuel
has yet to kick in.
The weather outlook in the next six to 10 days calls for "substantially lower than normal demand to close out
September and begin October," said Gaithersburg, Md.-based MDA Weather Services in a note Wednesday.
The so-called shoulder season between summer and winter is a peak period for producers to replenish storage supplies
before heating demand kicks in.
As of Sept. 12, natural-gas inventories stood 13% below the five-year average for the week. The U.S. Energy
Information Administration is set to release storage data for the week ended Sept. 19 on Thursday.
Traders are expecting another larger-than-average build, said Teri Viswanath, director of commodity strategy for
natural gas at BNP Paribas SA.
"Natural gas prices are currently trading flat on the week as the pick-up in inventory restocking deters potential
buyers," she said in a note.
Natural gas for next-day delivery at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana recently traded at $3.86/mmBtu, according
to Intercontinental Exchange Inc., versus Tuesday's average of $3.8956/mmBtu.
Natural gas for next-day delivery at Transcontinental Zone 6 in New York traded at $1.85/mmBtu, compared with
$1.9855/mmBtu Tuesday.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 24, 2014 10:02 ET (14:02 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092414 14:02 -- GMT
------
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural gas traded near flat Wednesday as neutral weather kept demand expectations subdued.
Natural gas for October delivery recently traded up 1.1 cents, or 0.3%, at $3.827 a million British thermal units on
the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Natural-gas prices have held in a tight range in recent months as a cooler-than-average summer reduced demand for
air-conditioning, lowering the need for gas-powered electricity. And winter demand for natural gas as a heating fuel
has yet to kick in.
The weather outlook in the next six to 10 days calls for "substantially lower than normal demand to close out
September and begin October," said Gaithersburg, Md.-based MDA Weather Services in a note Wednesday.
The so-called shoulder season between summer and winter is a peak period for producers to replenish storage supplies
before heating demand kicks in.
As of Sept. 12, natural-gas inventories stood 13% below the five-year average for the week. The U.S. Energy
Information Administration is set to release storage data for the week ended Sept. 19 on Thursday.
Traders are expecting another larger-than-average build, said Teri Viswanath, director of commodity strategy for
natural gas at BNP Paribas SA.
"Natural gas prices are currently trading flat on the week as the pick-up in inventory restocking deters potential
buyers," she said in a note.
Natural gas for next-day delivery at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana recently traded at $3.86/mmBtu, according
to Intercontinental Exchange Inc., versus Tuesday's average of $3.8956/mmBtu.
Natural gas for next-day delivery at Transcontinental Zone 6 in New York traded at $1.85/mmBtu, compared with
$1.9855/mmBtu Tuesday.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 24, 2014 10:02 ET (14:02 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092414 14:02 -- GMT
------
Natural Gas Technical Update - Will Weekly Low Support Hold Again?
A rally attempt yesterday by the October 14 natural gas contract stalled just below the 10 and 40 day moving averages at the 3.905 level. As resistance held, the market turned back to close lower on the day with the October contract settling at 3.816, down .034.
With 10 and 40 day moving average resistance holding on Tuesday, the primary trend remains down as the market again tests 3.740-3.760 weekly low support. This support has held the past 10 weeks and could be broken in upcoming trade.
A drop below 3.740 support would turn the 3.589 contract low into the next downside objective.
Moving average alignment is now bearish with the 10 day average being the first area of resistance at 3.885 followed by the 40 day average at 3.905. Longer term resistance is weekly highs between 4.000-4.101. A breakout above 4.101 is needed to turn the longer term trend back higher.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish
Crude Oil Technical Update - Market Should Rally Higher Today
The November 14 crude oil contract rallied back higher in Tuesday’s trade nearly erasing all of Monday’s losses to settle at 91.56, up .69.
The 10 day moving average at 92.00 today held as resistance in yesterday’s trade as well as in the overnight session. This average needs to be broken as resistance to turn the near term trend back up.
A breakout above 92.00 would turn the upper trend line of a triangle pattern that has been forming at 93.90-94.00 into the next upside resistance.
If upper trend line resistance is reached and holds, it would be the fourth and final point of the triangle. Triangles have a 75% chance of being a continuation pattern rather than a reversal pattern.
In this case, this triangle if it forms as predicted should be a bearish pattern.
A drop under Monday’s 90.41 low or a rally above 94.00 would negate the triangle pattern.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Dow Jones - End of Day Natural Gas Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Weakens, Demand Expected to Stay Moderate
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas futures slipped Tuesday as moderate weather appeared unlikely to induce much demand for
air-conditioning or indoor heating in the coming weeks.
Natural gas for October delivery settled down 3.4 cents, or 0.9%, at $3.816 a million British thermal units on the
New York Mercantile Exchange.
Natural-gas prices have stayed fairly subdued in recent months as a mild summer has kept demand for air-conditioning
low, reducing the need for gas-powered electricity. And winter demand for natural gas as a heating fuel has yet to kick
in.
"The short-term temperature views still appear more conducive toward $3.75 pricing rather than $3.90," said
energy-advisory firm Ritterbusch & Associates in a note.
Meanwhile, natural-gas production has been robust, calming some earlier fears that stockpiles would stay severely low
after supplies were depleted by a frigid winter. Inventories have replenished much more quickly than expected, and as
of Sept. 12 they stood just 13% below the five-year average for the week.
Morgan Stanley cut its 2015 forecast for natural-gas prices to $3.50/mmBtu from $4, citing "relentless supply
growth."
The EIA will release its storage data for the week ended Sept. 19 on Thursday.
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex October $3.816 -3.4c
Nymex November $3.869 -3.9c
Nymex December $3.960 -3.4c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS DAY
El Paso Perm $3.82-$3.96 $3.8575-$3.96
El Paso SJ $3.85-$3.915 $3.92-$3.96
Henry Hub $3.875-$3.93 $3.85-$3.895
Katy $3.875-$3.935 $3.86-$3.91
SoCal $4.07-$4.25 $4.09-$4.24
Tex East M3 $1.92-$2.075 $2.02-$2.23
Transco 65 $3.86-$3.8875 $3.83-$3.87
Transco Z6 $1.95-$2.05 $2.04-$2.12
Waha $3.87-$3.90 $3.86-$3.925
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 23, 2014 15:22 ET (19:22 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092314 19:22 -- GMT
------
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas futures slipped Tuesday as moderate weather appeared unlikely to induce much demand for
air-conditioning or indoor heating in the coming weeks.
Natural gas for October delivery settled down 3.4 cents, or 0.9%, at $3.816 a million British thermal units on the
New York Mercantile Exchange.
Natural-gas prices have stayed fairly subdued in recent months as a mild summer has kept demand for air-conditioning
low, reducing the need for gas-powered electricity. And winter demand for natural gas as a heating fuel has yet to kick
in.
"The short-term temperature views still appear more conducive toward $3.75 pricing rather than $3.90," said
energy-advisory firm Ritterbusch & Associates in a note.
Meanwhile, natural-gas production has been robust, calming some earlier fears that stockpiles would stay severely low
after supplies were depleted by a frigid winter. Inventories have replenished much more quickly than expected, and as
of Sept. 12 they stood just 13% below the five-year average for the week.
Morgan Stanley cut its 2015 forecast for natural-gas prices to $3.50/mmBtu from $4, citing "relentless supply
growth."
The EIA will release its storage data for the week ended Sept. 19 on Thursday.
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex October $3.816 -3.4c
Nymex November $3.869 -3.9c
Nymex December $3.960 -3.4c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS DAY
El Paso Perm $3.82-$3.96 $3.8575-$3.96
El Paso SJ $3.85-$3.915 $3.92-$3.96
Henry Hub $3.875-$3.93 $3.85-$3.895
Katy $3.875-$3.935 $3.86-$3.91
SoCal $4.07-$4.25 $4.09-$4.24
Tex East M3 $1.92-$2.075 $2.02-$2.23
Transco 65 $3.86-$3.8875 $3.83-$3.87
Transco Z6 $1.95-$2.05 $2.04-$2.12
Waha $3.87-$3.90 $3.86-$3.925
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 23, 2014 15:22 ET (19:22 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092314 19:22 -- GMT
------
Dow Jones - Morning Natural Gas Commentary
DJ Natural Gas Edges Higher on Warm Weather Outlook
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices rose Tuesday, as weather forecasts continued to call for above-average temperatures in
the next two weeks, which could increase demand for natural gas to power air-conditioning units.
Natural gas for October delivery recently traded up 3.7 cents, or 1%, at $3.887 a million British thermal units on
the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The forecast for the next six to 10 days shows "rather widespread above-average warmth across a good portion of the
eastern two-thirds of the nation," said Andover, Mass.-based forecaster WSI Corp. However, the outlook is less hot than
previously forecast, according to the company.
Traders are closing out positions as they wait for summer to end and the winter heating season to begin, said Frank
Clements of Meridian Energy Brokers, noting that open interest is close to its lowest level for the year.
Other factors are keeping price gains muted, said Matt Smith, commodity analyst at energy-consulting firm Schneider
Electric SA, including expectations for a larger-than-average storage build to be reported Thursday and the expiration
of the October contract Friday.
The U.S. Markit Flash Purchasing Managers Index is due at 9:45 a.m. EDT and could indicate what to expect from
industrial demand for natural gas.
Natural gas for next-day delivery at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana recently traded at $3.885/mmBtu, according
to Intercontinental Exchange Inc., versus Monday's average of $3.8679/mmBtu.
Natural gas for next-day delivery at Transcontinental Zone 6 in New York traded at $2.05/mmBtu, compared with
$2.0719/mmBtu Monday.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 23, 2014 09:23 ET (13:23 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092314 13:23 -- GMT
------
^^^^^^
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--Natural-gas prices rose Tuesday, as weather forecasts continued to call for above-average temperatures in
the next two weeks, which could increase demand for natural gas to power air-conditioning units.
Natural gas for October delivery recently traded up 3.7 cents, or 1%, at $3.887 a million British thermal units on
the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The forecast for the next six to 10 days shows "rather widespread above-average warmth across a good portion of the
eastern two-thirds of the nation," said Andover, Mass.-based forecaster WSI Corp. However, the outlook is less hot than
previously forecast, according to the company.
Traders are closing out positions as they wait for summer to end and the winter heating season to begin, said Frank
Clements of Meridian Energy Brokers, noting that open interest is close to its lowest level for the year.
Other factors are keeping price gains muted, said Matt Smith, commodity analyst at energy-consulting firm Schneider
Electric SA, including expectations for a larger-than-average storage build to be reported Thursday and the expiration
of the October contract Friday.
The U.S. Markit Flash Purchasing Managers Index is due at 9:45 a.m. EDT and could indicate what to expect from
industrial demand for natural gas.
Natural gas for next-day delivery at the benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana recently traded at $3.885/mmBtu, according
to Intercontinental Exchange Inc., versus Monday's average of $3.8679/mmBtu.
Natural gas for next-day delivery at Transcontinental Zone 6 in New York traded at $2.05/mmBtu, compared with
$2.0719/mmBtu Monday.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 23, 2014 09:23 ET (13:23 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
092314 13:23 -- GMT
------
^^^^^^
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