Crude Oil Technical Update - Entering Into A 13th Week Of Lower Prices

The crude oil market remains mired in a steep downtrend that now enters into a 13th week.

In last week’s trade, the October 14 contract set a new 2014 spot contract low of 90.43 on Thursday’s session before rallying back higher into the close.  The 10 day moving average held as resistance on Thursday and in early trade on Friday resulting in selling into Friday’s close.

The October contract closed Friday at 92.27 losing 1.02 for the week.  Selling has continued overnight dropping the contract back toward last week’s 90.43 low.   If this low is broken as support, the 88.69 contract low set last November will become the next primary support.

The 10 day moving average was solid resistance all of last week and is at the 92.95 level today.  As long as the October contract trades under this average, the trend will remain down.

The Commitment of Trader’s report released on Friday showed funds lightly selling existing positions.  The fund long position which reached an all-time high of 458,969 contracts in June is currently estimated at 299,982 contracts, down 2,582 for the week.

Technical Indicators:  Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
                                         Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
                                         Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish