After rallying up to a new 11-week high in last Tuesday's trade, the June 15 natural gas contract fell lower into Friday's close settling down on a weekly basis for the first time in 4 weeks.
Last Friday's daily settle at 2.887, down .129 or 4.3% for the week, was technically important as it came under 10 day moving average support. This was the first daily settle under this average since April 28th, one day after the market set the current 2015 low.
The near term trend is now bearish with 2.800-2.810 being the first area of support today for the June 15 contract followed by the 40 day moving average at 2.740. Longer term support is the 2.481 contract low posted in late-April.
The 10 day moving average broken as support on Friday now becomes the first area of resistance today at 2.935 followed by 3.020-3.040, and finally last week's 3.105 high.
The fund long position in the natural gas market has jumped by 96% over the past two weeks according to the Commitment of Trader's report released on Friday. The current long position as of last Tuesday's close was estimated at 96,565 contracts, up 32,564 from the previous week.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment - Neutral
Long Term RMI Trend Following Index - Bullish
Short Term RMI Trend Following Index - Bearish (turned lower on Friday)
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