A sell off following release of the weekly storage report dropped the September contract to a 3.786 intraday low. But the market was able to slowly crawl back higher into the close with the September contract settling at 3.889, up .066 (1.7%).
The September contract remains range bound in 4 week sideways range chopping between weekly low support at 3.725-3.727 and weekly high resistance at the lower-4.000 level. A breakout from this range is now needed.
An upside breakout above lower-4.000 resistance which includes the 40 day moving average at 3.990 today would turn the longer term trend back higher. It would also likely indicate a final seasonal low for 2014 has been set.
If the breakout instead comes below 3.725 support, the trend will remain down with a likely drop back toward the 3.500 area before a final low is set.
Moving average alignment is bearish suggesting the trend will remain down but both the short and long term RMI indexes are bullish supporting a bullish breakout.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
No comments:
Post a Comment