Barron's Blog - Natural Gas Will Surpass Oil For Global Energy Use By 2040

DJ Natural Gas Will Surpass Oil For Global Energy Use By 2040, OPEC Says -- Barron's Blog



  By Chris Dieterich

  The 12-member  Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is out with their yearly think piece, " The 2015
World Oil Outlook."

  The report recounts the wreckage that has been the collapse in crude prices, though the organization assumes that oil
can average $55 a barrel in 2015 and then rise by about $5 a barrel each year through 2015, reaching about $71 a barrel
by 2020 (in 2014 prices, or $80 a barrel in nominal terms). These aren't OPEC's forecasts, per se, rather they're the
working assumptions that undergird forward-looking models.

  Anyhow, the longer-term assumptions for market share of different energy sources anticipate that use of fossil fuels
for energy will continue to dominate by 2040, but also that natural gas will surpass oil by then. There's not a lot of
good news for coal.


  "By the 2030s, oil is expected to drop below 28%. A similar trend is expected for coal. By 2040, natural gas is
expected to have the largest share, making up close to 28% of global energy demand with both oil and coal having lower
shares by then."


  Other forms of energy will continue to take share:


  "Between 2013 and 2040, nuclear energy will increase at 2.2% p.a., on average, making up 5.9% of the world's total
energy consumption by 2040. The share of hydro and biomass, though growing, will remain relatively stable (hydro at
around 2.5% and biomass within a narrow range of 9.5--9.8%). Other renewables, mainly wind and solar, are expected to
grow at the fastest rates, multiplying their contribution to total primary energy supply by more than seven times.
Their overall share will nevertheless remain low, reaching around 4% in 2040."


 More at Barron's Focus on Funds blog, http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/">http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/
>

  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

  December 23, 2015 10:09 ET (15:09 GMT)

  Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

122315 15:09 -- GMT
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