The EIA today reported the first storage withdrawal of winter 15-16 in the weekly storage report released this morning. The report showed a 53 Bcf pull from storage for week ended 11/27 dropping storage back under the 4,000 Bcf mark and last week's all-time high.
Current gas in storage of 3,956 Bcf is 6.7% above the 5-year average and nearly 17% above last year's level.
The latest 6-10 day National Weather Service forecast has moderated slightly from the previous day's more bearish forecast but overall weather-related demand is expected to remain lower than normal.
Production was reported today by the EIA for the first time in two weeks and was adjusted upward for a second time. Current dry-gas production for week ended 12/2 was estimated at 71.5 Bcf per day, up from the previous estimate of 70.9 Bcf per day.
Production estimates are frequently revised but daily production over the past year has fallen from a 74.3 Bcf high last December to 71.5 Bcf level this December, a decline of 2.8 Bcf per day or 3.7%. Production is expected to rise during this month according to the EIA.
Bearish weather forecasts, record high storage, still high daily production, not a particular bullish mix for the market.
There is an old saying that no one rings a bell on a market low but it is tough to get bullish natural gas without a substantial cool down in temperatures.
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