The natural gas market was heavily sold to begin the new
week of trade on Monday as the spot April 16 contract lost .079 or 4.1% to
settle at 1.828.
Yesterday’s daily settle came right on 10 day moving average
support at the 1.840 level today. A close under the 10 day average will
turn the near term trend back down possible indicating a top has been
set. Downside support for today under the current 1.796 overnight low is
at 1.750, 1.690-1.700 and the 1.611 contract low set in early-March.
The 40 day moving average, a trend line drawn over 3-month
highs and last week’s 1.957 high are combined resistance between
1.930-1.960. A breakout above this area would be a very bullish signal
for the market indicating the post-winter rally has further room to run on the
upside.
Once a top is set, a retest of the 1.611 contract low is
expected.
Bottom line – Will 1.930-1.960 resistance hold?
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment -
Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
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