The natural gas market has now closed higher 3 weeks in a
row gaining another .135 or 5.7% in last week’s session with the February 16
contract settling Friday at 2.472.
A bullish crossover last week by the 10 and 40 day moving
averages and bullish short and long term RMI trend following indexes point
toward a continued price rally near term. Longer term resistance is the
200 day moving average currently at 2.910.
Friday’s 2.495 high is the first area of resistance today
followed by 2.570 extending up to 2.630.
Former daily high resistance at 2.380-2.390 now becomes the
first area of support today followed by the 10 day moving average currently at
2.330. Longer term support is the 40 day average currently at
2.240. A close back under the 40 day average will turn the trend
back down.
Friday’s Commitment of Trader’s report showed the funds long
39,281 natural gas futures, down 1,151 from the previous week. The fund long
position has roughly doubled since the market bottomed out at a new 14-year low
in mid-December.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment –
Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index - Bullish
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