natural gas

natural gas

Monday, July 18, 2016

Natural Gas Corner - Technical Update - Early Bullish Breakout Attempt On Monday




After trading down to a new 3-week low at the 2.669 level in Friday’s early session, the August 16 natural gas contract rallied back higher into the close settling the day at 2.756, up .029 .  For the week, the August contract lost .045 or 1.6% closing lower for a second week in a row.

Early buying interest today has the August contract trading above 10 day moving average resistance at the 2.755 level.   A close above this average will turn the near term trend back up with following resistance at 2.820-2.830,  the 2.871 weekly high, and the 2.998 early-July high.

Last  week’s 2.669 low is the first area of support followed closely behind by the 40 day moving average at 2.620.  A close back under the 40 day average would likely signal a market top has been set with the 200 day moving average at 2.450 then becoming the next downside support.

Friday’s Commitment of Trader’s report showed a slight drop in the fund long futures position in the market which steadily increased during the month of June.  The fund long position as of the  07-12 close was estimated at 133,916 contracts, down 2,785 from the previous week.

Technical Indicators:  Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
                                         Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
                                         Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish

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