DJ Natural Gas Rises on Hotter Forecasts
(Adds price table)
By Timothy Puko
Natural-gas prices climbed to nearly a three-month high Wednesday as forecasts for hotter weather boosted
expectations for demand that were already high.
The front-month September contract settled up 8.7 cents, or 3.1%, to $2.931 a million British thermal units on the
New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the largest one-day percentage gain and three-session rally in nearly a month.
Prices surged out of the 23-cent range they had settled in every day since early June and closed at their highest price
since May 21.
Conditions for high demand look to be settling in for the next two weeks, said Aaron Calder, senior market analyst at
energy-consulting firm Gelber & Associates in Houston, in a note. "Bulls finally have something to look forward to."
Natural-gas consumption rises in the summer when households and offices use more electricity to power
air-conditioning units. Texas, where temperatures climbed above 100 degrees Fahrenheit, has already seen record demand
for power in recent days, according to trade publications that track demand and prices.
Commodity Weather Group LLC on Wednesday reported a third straight day of warmer forecasts. It added more severe
warmth, more than five degrees Fahrenheit above normal for next week from Pittsburgh and Washington up through Boston
and Maine.
"The main...catalyst has been more supportive short-term temperature forecasts," said Dominick Chirichella, analyst
at the Energy Management Institute, in a note.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration updates its data on storage levels on Thursdays and analysts expect the
higher demand to keep additions much lower than they were to start the summer. Storage levels likely grew by 55 billion
cubic feet of gas during the week ended Aug. 7, according to the average forecast of 16 analysts and traders surveyed
by The Wall Street Journal. That is above the five-year average, but far below the 79 bcf added during this week last
year and the additions of more than 90 bcf that started July.
If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of Aug. 7 totaled 3 trillion cubic feet, 21% above levels from a
year ago and 2.4% above the five-year average for the same week. The supply level is a closely watched figure: Many
analysts and traders had warned that prices could tank going into the autumn if storage came close to filling. But the
recent smaller additions to storage have led some analysts to say a price collapse is now a much smaller possibility.
Mr. Chirichella said the shutdown of Alliance Pipeline LP's major link from Canada, carrying 1.6 bcf a day, has also
supported prices. The company said Tuesday that it expected to restart the pipeline by Thursday. Officials didn't have
an update on that plan Wednesday.
FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex September $2.931 8.7c
Nymex October $2.956 8.5c
Nymex November $3.049 7.6c
CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS SESSION
El Paso Perm $2.86-$2.89 $2.7925-$2.815
El Paso SJ $2.8675-$2.89 $2.80-$2.815
Henry Hub $2.89-$2.95 $2.835-$2.855
Katy $2.87-$2.90 $2.83-$2.85
SoCal $2.98-$3.03 $2.90-$3.00
Tex East M3 $1.64-$1.72 $1.64-$1.70
Transco 65 $2.875-$2.895 $2.80-$2.85
Transco Z6 $2.65-$2.82 $2.40-$2.79
Waha $2.86-$2.90 $2.82-$2.845
Write to Timothy Puko at tim.puko@wsj.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 12, 2015 16:47 ET (20:47 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
081215 20:47 -- GMT
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