Shorts got hit again in the natural gas market today as a smaller than expected weekly storage injection spiked the September contract higher by 2% the minute following release to the report. Coincidentally, the daily high at 2.781 was set during the post-report price rally.
Today's EIA storage injection for week ended 08/14 was 53 Bcf, 7 Bcf lower than the pre-report guesstimate. This is in comparison to an 86 Bcf build last year and a 5-year average injection of 54 Bcf. The surplus of gas currently in storage relative to the 5-year average fell from 2.9% to 2.7%.
Storage is currently estimated at 3,030 Bcf with 11 weeks to go in the injection season.
The latest 6-10 and 8-14 day National Weather Service forecasts call for continued heat in the southern and eastern U.S. which could keep the market range bound similar to the past 14 weeks.
The breakout from the triangle pattern earlier this week found no follow through selling but the pattern remains viable as long as the September 15 contract trades under the 2.900 level.
Outside of today's EIA storage report, very little has changed with the natural gas market. New price lows are still expected as the market enters into the post-summer shoulder season over the next few weeks of trade.
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